NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 3/2

March 2, 2022 09:21 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Tuesday, March 1st

There were three recommended bets on Tuesday. The Lightning and Avalanche both came back from deficits to cover the puck line, while the Hurricanes blew a late 3-2 lead and wrecked any chance they had of covering the spread.

Record:

82-71, + 3.85 units, 2.5 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Wednesday, March 2nd

There are just four games scheduled for Wednesday. Let's try to keep things rolling with another winner on the puck line.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Buffalo Sabres (+ 300) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-360)

According to my model, the Maple Leafs should be priced around -530 on the moneyline, and therefore, there’s a lot of wiggle room here. I am betting that Toronto will cover the puck line (-1.5 goals) at -165, but I would be comfortable laying up to -175. Petr Mrazek will be in goal for the Maple Leafs on Wednesday. Toronto grades out as the best team by expected goals after the Calgary Flames, and they’re a top-three team on offense. Buffalo, on the other hand, ranks 30th in expected goals and they rank 29th in goal differential per 60 minutes. The Sabres rank 25th on offense and 29th on defense. Craig Anderson is expected to start in goal for the Sabres, who have lost six in a row (all by two goals or more). Bet on the Leafs to cover the puck line.

Pick:

Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line -1.5, -165

St. Louis Blues (-110) at New York Rangers (-110)

Assuming the starting goaltenders are Igor Shesterkin and Ville Husso, the Rangers should be priced around -115. There’s not a lot separating the two teams, but the Blues are the better team by goal share and shot share. The Rangers will have an edge in goal, regardless of which goaltender the Blues decide to go with, but if Jordan Binnington gets the start, New York would be a value bet at -110.

Update: Ville Husso will start for the Blues. Igor Shesterkin is expected to start for the Rangers. As I mentioned, I still believe the Rangers should be priced closer to -115, and I'm comfortable taking a small position on the home team at -105 or better.

Pick:

New York Rangers -105 (half size)

Los Angeles Kings (+ 110) at Dallas Stars (-130)

The Kings were priced around + 130 early Wednesday morning, but the line moved quickly. I tried to get down on the Kings at + 125 or better, but I didn’t have much luck as every shop moved in lockstep. Los Angeles is better than Dallas, and although it’s the Kings’ fourth game in six days, the home team shouldn’t be priced any higher than -115. The value is gone, though.

Nashville Predators (-165) at Seattle Kraken (+ 145)

Everyone knows that the Kraken have struggled this season, but the Predators have been losing more than they’ve been winning for the better part of two months now. Since Jan. 13th, Nashville has gone 6-10 straight up. Seattle has lost seven games in a row, and they have been awful at home this season, but given their current form, the Predators shouldn’t be priced any higher than -175, depending on what the lineups look like.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line -1.5, -165

New York Rangers -105 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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