NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 2/9

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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Monday, Feb. 7th

The Minnesota Wild were a late add at -140, and the game line closed around -155. The game line closed around -155, so by that measure, it was a good bet. However, it’s hard to win a game without scoring any goals. It was the first time all season that the Wild did not score at least one goal, and only the fifth time that they didn’t score at least two goals. Winnipeg opened the scoring with a power play goal in the first period and added an empty-net goal with about one minute left in regulation. They won the game 2-0.

Record:

71-66, -2.05 units, -1.5 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, Feb. 8th

There are six games scheduled for Wednesday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Detroit Red Wings (-110) at Philadelphia Flyers (-110)

The Flyers ended a 13-game losing streak prior to the break and have won two in a row, while the Red Wings have only picked up five wins in their last 16 games. Carter Hart will start in goal for the Flyers, who are still without Sean Couturier, Kevin Hayes, Joel Farabee and a few other regulars. It’s unclear who will start for the Red Wings, but Thomas Greiss is an option after not playing since Jan. 9th. If that’s the case, the Flyers should be priced around -120, but if it’s Alex Nedeljkovic, the probability of a Flyers win would sit around 50 percent. I don’t have much interest in betting on the Flyers, or the Red Wings, at the current price, though.

Chicago Blackhawks (+ 155) at Edmonton Oilers (-175)

Mike Smith made his return to the Oilers crease on Tuesday, but the Oilers did not get the outcome that they were looking for, as the Golden Knights shut them out and won the game 4-0. And since Mikko Koskinen is in COVID protocol, it’s likely that Stuart Skinner will be in goal for the Oilers when the Blackhawks, who are still missing Jonathan Toews, come to town on Wednesday. Marc-Andre Fleury will likely get the start in goal for Chicago, as Kevin Lankinen is still on the injured list, and the team has two days off before playing their next game. Chicago has just one win in their last eight games, and they’ve only picked up five wins in their last 16. The Oilers should be able to defeat the Blackhawks, as they’re average in most categories, while the Blackhawks are among the bottom-10 teams in the league when it comes to things like expected goal share and shot attempt percentage. The Blackhawks also have the third-worst goal share at even strength in the NHL. According to my model, Edmonton should win the game approximately 63 percent of the time, which converts to a fair line of around -170.

Nashville Predators (-110) at Dallas Stars (-110)

Stars’ forward Jason Robertson missed practice on Monday due to an eye infection, but head coach Rick Bowness believes he will be good to go. If Robertson isn’t in the lineup, that’s enough to make the Predators a small favorite, but by the looks of things, there won’t be enough of an edge to overcome the bookmaker’s margin. Juuse Saros and Jake Oettinger are expected to be the starting goaltenders. Dallas does have home-ice advantage, and if Robertson plays, the game is a toss-up, based on my model’s estimate. Nashville is the better team, as they rank among the top-10 in even strength expected goal share and have a much better goal differential than the Stars do, according to Evolving Hockey. Robertson is one of the Stars’ top producers, though, and if he isn’t in the lineup, the Predators should be priced around -115.

Update: Robertson is at practice this morning and appears to be in the lineup.

Vegas Golden Knights (+ 110) at Calgary Flames (-130)

Vegas is coming off a 4-0 shutout win over the Edmonton Oilers. Laurent Brossoit was in goal, which means Robin Lehner will almost certainly start on Wednesday in Calgary. This is the first half of a back-to-back for the Flames, who will host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday. Since this is a divisional game, and the Flames are chasing the Golden Knights for the lead in the Pacific Division, it’s possible that Jacob Markstrom starts on Wednesday, but there’s obviously a chance that backup Daniel Vladar will be between the pipes. According to my model, the Flames should be priced as a very small favorite if Vladar ends up in the crease, but if it is Markstrom that gets the nod on Wednesday, then there’s nothing egregious about how the game has been priced by the market. According to my model, the Flames’ odds should be around -135 if Markstrom is in the crease.

Arizona Coyotes (+ 190) at Seattle Kraken (-220)

Arizona fell 5-1 to the Canucks in Vancouver on Tuesday and now they’ll play the Kraken in Seattle. Karel Vejmelka got the start for the Coyotes, and since Scott Wedgewood is listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury, it looks like Vejmelka will start on back-to-back nights. So, as bad as the Kraken are, they’re getting an even worse Coyotes team on the second half of a back-to-back with a tired goaltender. Seattle should win the game about 67 percent of the time, but that means a fair price is closer to -200, and therefore, it doesn’t look like I’ll be taking a position on either side.

New York Islanders (-120) at Vancouver Canucks (+ 100)

Since Thatcher Demko was in goal on Tuesday, it seems likely that Jaroslav Halak will be in the crease on Wednesday when the Canucks host the Islanders. Ilya Sorokin is expected to start for the Islanders. Quinn Hughes did not play on Tuesday due to COVID and he will not play on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Islanders have the services of their best defender back, as Ryan Pulock is back in the lineup after taking a long time to recover from an injury. The Islanders chances of making the playoffs are slim, but bettor should expect Pulock will make a positive impact going forward. However, I don’t believe the Islanders should be priced at -120, but instead, think they should be priced closer to -110, as my model estimates that they will win the game approximately 52.5 percent of the time.

Bet Summary:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended play prop bets currently.

 

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