NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 2/16

February 16, 2022 08:57 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Tuesday, Feb. 15th

There were no recommended bets on Tuesday.

Record:

73-67, -0.5 units, -0.4 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Wednesday, Feb. 16th

There are just four games scheduled for Wednesday, and while there are plenty of reasons to watch each of them, there might not be all that much incentive to bet on any of them.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Minnesota Wild (-135) at Winnipeg Jets (+ 125)

When the NHL returned to action following the All-Star break, the first bet I made was on the Minnesota Wild, when they were in Winnipeg to play the Jets. I recommended laying -140, and the game closed around -155. The Wild were shutout (2-0) for the first time all season. Now, just a little over a week later, the Wild opened at -150, but sit at -135 and there are some obvious reasons for this. First, the Jets injury list was a lot longer a week ago, and since then they’ve gotten a few players back, including Pierre-Luc Dubois. Matt Dumba was also in the lineup the last time around, and he is questionable heading into Wednesday’s game. The Wild also started Kaapo Kakhonen in that game, but Cam Talbot will start in the rematch. Kakhonen has been a lot better than Talbot, so the switch reduces the Wild’s chances of winning the game. My model priced the last matchup closer to -150 in favor of the Wild, but this time around, the price my model generated is closer to -130.

Florida Panthers (+ 100) at Carolina Panthers (-120)

The Hurricanes have played four games since returning to action following the All-Star break, all of them were on the road. They went 1-2-1, or 1-3 straight up. Wednesday, the Florida Panthers, who haven’t played since Feb. 1st, come to town. It should be a great game, as these are two of the best teams in the league. There should be offense (the total is set at 6.5) but both teams have great goaltenders. However, my model prices the Hurricanes at around -115, and therefore, I don’t have any interest in taking the dog at + 100 or laying the favorite at -120. The Panthers are the superior team, but they could be rusty, and the Hurricanes are at home. Florida’s 9-7-5 on the road this season and I don’t see the appeal in taking + 110 like some bettors did earlier, prior to the line movement.

Anaheim Ducks (+ 175) at Calgary Flames (-200)

Tyler Toffoli’s debut as a member of the Calgary Flames was a success, as they defeated the Columbus Blue Jackets by a score of 6-2 on Tuesday. Toffoli put the game totally out of reach with the sixth and final goal. Dan Vladar was the starting goaltender on Tuesday, which means Jacob Markstrom will get the start on Wednesday when Anaheim rolls through. The Ducks have played one game since the All-Star break (a 4-3 loss versus Seattle) and they’ve had four days off. The Flames will be tired, but Markstrom will be fresh and Calgary’s win streak should be at eight when it’s all said and done. Anaheim’s underlying metrics are poor, and the only thing that’s keeping them above water is shooting and saving luck. The Flames, meanwhile, have scored almost 60 percent of the goals, and grade out as the second-best team by expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey. My model prices Calgary around -210 in this game, assuming John Gibson is in goal for the Ducks.

Colorado Avalanche (-125) at Vegas Golden Knights (+ 105)

Jack Eichel will make his debut for the Golden Knights on Wednesday, but Mark Stone has been moved to injured reserve and goaltender Robin Lehner will miss the game due to an upper-body injury. Vegas would have been the favorite here, and a sizeable one at that, if Stone and Lehner weren’t out with injuries, but now they’re a home underdog, and rightfully so. The Avalanche are coming off a lopsided loss to the Dallas Stars on home ice, but they rested Darcy Kuemper for this matchup. Laurent Brossoit is a fine goaltender, but Colorado has the edge in the crease. Eichel and Pacioretty gives the Golden Knights a solid one-two punch on the top line, but Brossoit is going to have his hands full against a motivated opponent. The Avalanche are stacked with talent, and according to my model, even though they’re on the second half of a back-to-back, they should win the game approximately 53.5 percent of the time, which converts to a fair line of -115.

Bet Summary:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

 

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