NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 1/26

January 26, 2022 08:17 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Tuesday, Jan. 25th

Nashville trailed 1-0 and 2-1 early, but they scored two goals in the second period to take a 3-2 lead into the third. Juuse Saros locked it down and the Predators won the game 4-2 to cash the -165 moneyline bet. Since returning from the break my bets (moneyline, total and puck line) have gone 23-15, and I don’t necessarily believe that luck has been on my side. I’ll take it, though.

Record:

70-59, + 4.75 units, 3.8 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Wednesday, Jan. 26th

There are five games scheduled for Wednesday, and I’ve made one early bet on a sizeable road underdog.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

San Jose Sharks (+ 180) at Washington Capitals (-200)

Erik Karlsson had surgery to repair muscle damage in his forearm and he’s out indefinitely. The Sharks are also missing several other players due to injury and illness, but none move the needle as much as Karlsson. Washington is still missing T.J. Oshie and Nick Jensen, but they did get Dmitry Orlov and John Carlson back into the lineup over the weekend, so the team shouldn’t miss a beat. Unfortunately, the game line was bet up to -200 overnight and that’s where it should be priced, according to my model.

Anaheim Ducks (+ 240) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-280)

The Maple Leafs are back home after a long road trip, and they have had three days off. The Ducks are coming off a huge win 5-3 over the Bruins in Boston and have only had one day off. Troy Terry and Cam Fowler returned to the lineup, so the Ducks have two of their best players back and are close to being back at full strength. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs are still without defender Jake Muzzin. According to my model, Toronto should be priced around -280, assuming John Gibson and Jack Campbell are the starting goaltenders.

Calgary Flames (-180) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 160)

Calgary is back on the road after a big 7-1 win over the Blues at home. The Flames play the Blue Jackets on Wednesday before heading to St. Louis for a rematch against the Blues. I think the Flames will choose to start Daniel Vladar against the Blue Jackets and save Jacob Markstrom for Thursday’s game against the Blues. There’s nothing egregious about the -180 price tag that the Flames are currently carrying, assuming Vladar will be in the crease, and therefore, I probably won’t end up taking any kind of position on this game.

Chicago Blackhawks (-125) at Detroit Red Wings (+ 105)

The Red Wings have only won three out of 11 games since returning to action, and their schedule hasn’t been all that difficult. The Blackhawks haven’t been much better, though, winning only four times in their last 12 games. Chicago’s schedule was tougher, though, which must be accounted for. There’s not a huge gap between these two teams, but the Blackhawks have enough of an edge over the Red Wings that it really cuts into the latter’s home-ice advantage. According to my model, the Red Wings should be priced around -110, but that’s only because they have had three days off and the Blackhawks are playing their fourth game in six days.

Boston Bruins (+ 160) at Colorado Avalanche (-180) 

Colorado hasn’t played a team as good as the Bruins since returning from the break, and as I’ve mentioned in previous reports, even though they’ve won 12 of 13 games since Jan. 2nd they’ve gone to overtime or a shootout six times. The Bruins aren’t rolling like they were coming out of the break, as they have been outscored 17-11 over their last four games. They’re coming off a 5-3 loss to the Ducks at home, but they rebounded with two solid efforts after losing 7-1 to the Hurricanes last week, and the team should be able to get up for a game against the Avalanche.

According to Evolving Hockey, the Bruins (54.5 percent) have owned a higher percentage of expected goals on aggregate than the Avalanche (53.9 percent), but the Avalanche have scored 58.5 percent of the goals while the Bruins have only scored 52.8 percent. Boston has scored 57.3 percent of the goals in the last 13 games, though. Colorado’s goal share is hovering around 65 percent, but they’ve had an easier schedule. The Bruins deserve to be a sizeable underdog here, but my model prices the game closer to -145 in favor of the Avalanche, so taking the road underdog at + 155 is a value bet. Shop around, though, as some shops have the Bruins listed at + 160 or better. I recommend betting the Bruins at + 155 or better.

Notes: Matt Grzelcyk is not expected to be in the Bruins’ lineup.

Pick:

Boston Bruins + 155

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Boston Bruins + 155

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended play prop bets currently

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