NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 1/19

January 19, 2022 09:48 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Tuesday, Jan. 18th

Tuesday’s betting market report was abbreviated but choosing to focus on the two games that I had the most interest in, from a betting perspective, proved to be the right strategy, as the Capitals and Flames both picked up wins.

Record: 64-58, + 0.9 units, 0.8 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Wednesday, Jan. 19th

There are just three games scheduled for Wednesday, but the rest of the week is going to be busy.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Arizona Coyotes (+ 180) at New Jersey Devils (-200)

New Jersey has been off for five days, while the Coyotes are playing their fourth game in six days. The Devils are close to being fully healthy, but star defender Dougie Hamilton is still out of action due to an injury. The Devils are a below average hockey team, and MacKenzie Blackwood has been awful this season. According to Evolving Hockey, an average goaltender would have saved approximately 10 more goals than Blackwood, based on the quality of shots that he’s faced. So, even though Blackwood is back in the lineup, bettors shouldn’t expect him to give the team much of a boost, if any. The Coyotes are the worst team in the league, according to my model, though, and the Devils are rested. A fair price for this game is somewhere between -165 and -180, depending on what the lineups look like.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-150) at New York Rangers (+ 130)

Jake Muzzin will miss at least two games after suffering a concussion, so the Maple Leafs will be without one of their best defenders in the short term. The Maple Leafs have two games left on this road trip, and both are in New York. They’ll play the Islanders after a day off, before heading home to Canada, but first they’ll take on the Rangers at Madison Square Garden. According to my model, the market has this game priced fairly at -150 in favor of the Maple Leafs. My model prices the game closer to -140, in favor of the Maple Leafs, but it’s still within the straddle, which means there’s no value taking the dog. Igor Shesterkin and Jack Campbell are expected to be the starting goaltenders. Toronto will likely dominate the Rangers at even strength, as New York ranks among the worst teams in terms of even-strength shot share on a per game basis, but they have great special teams and a lot of high-end talent.

Colorado Avalanche (-250) at Anaheim Ducks (+ 210)

The virus has spread through Anaheim’s roster and there’s no telling what their lineup will look like when they play host to the Avalanche on Wednesday. The biggest question is who will start in goal? Lukas Dostal seems like the likely candidate, given that Anthony Stolarz was recently placed in COVID protocol, and John Gibson has been out for more than two weeks, but the latter has practiced twice since testing negative, and there’s a small chance that he could start on Wednesday.

The Ducks COVID list looks like this: Josh Manson (Jan. 18), Troy Terry (Jan. 15), Cam Fowler (Jan. 15), Anthony Stolarz (Jan. 15) and Simon Benoit (Jan. 13). Adam Henrique, Josh Mahura and Sonny Milano are also listed as day-to-day with injuries. The Ducks should have some sort of morning skate or media availability today, so we will likely find out more about their lineup as the day moves along.

Colorado will be without starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper and several other players including Valeri Nichushkin, Ryan Murray, Bowen Byram and Darren Helm. Backup goaltender Pavel Francouz will get the start in goal. Lately, Colorado hasn’t been able to put teams away without a little bit of trouble, but I don’t expect that they will have much trouble with the Ducks. According to my model, a fair price for this game is around -255, but that’s if John Gibson starts. If it’s Dostal, or some other scrub, my model will make the Avalanche an even bigger favorite.

Update: John Gibson will start for the Ducks, but with the Avalanche being priced even higher now, there's no value bet to be made. I do have a player prop bet, though. See below.

Bet Summary

There are no recommended bets for Sunday currently.

Player Prop Bets for Sunday, Jan. 16th:

Record: 114-113, -12.3 units, -4.57 percent ROI

Recap: If I had known that the Lightning were only going to dress four defenders, I would have avoided betting the player prop bets that I did. Player prop bets went 1-2, but at least the one with the biggest odds (Kopitar Under 0.5 Points + 135) hit.

Mikko Rantanen Over 3.5 Shots + 120 (DraftKings)

The Ducks have been allowing almost 40 shots per game since returning from the break, while the Avalanche have been generating almost 40 shots in that same time period. The Ducks roster is a mess, and they're missing several key players including some of their top defenders. The Propagator estimates that Rantanen will register at least four shots approximately 50 percent of the time, so this is a value bet at + 120.

 

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