NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 11/3


Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Monday, Nov. 2nd

Well, I didn’t get the goaltending matchup that I was looking for, but the Flames were still a good bet. Juuse Saros was unstoppable, though, and the Flames lost. It also took overtime for Matt Duchene to go over on his prop total, which was unfortunate, as player prop bets were solid again, but could’ve been better.

Game Lines:

11-15, -7.1 units, -23.6 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -111

Player Props: 

57-44, + 5.70 units, + 4.6 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -113

Market Report for Wednesday, Nov. 3rd

There are only four games on Wednesday, but there’s a lot to cover in terms of what could potentially impact the betting market between now and game time.

Sportsbooks like BetMGM and DraftKings have yet to post player props for Wednesday. Player prop bets will be added later in the day.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Carolina Hurricanes (-150) at Chicago Blackhawks (+ 130)

Chicago picked up a win on the weekend, so they are no longer winless, but it’s going to be tough for them to make it two in a row, as the Hurricanes are the clear favorite in this matchup. There’s a couple of differences between this game and the first time these teams met, as Carolina forward Nino Niederreiter is out with an injury, and Patrick Kane is in the lineup for the Blackhawks.  Marc-Andre Fleury could also be in goal this time around, but it’s the fourth game in six days for the Blackhawks and Fleury has played the last two. Kevin Lankinen did take the 6-3 loss versus the Hurricanes on the October 29th, though, so don’t be surprised if Fleury gets the nod. It’s probably wise to hang back and wait for confirmation from the team, because the market could shift one way or the other.

Nashville Predators (+ 180) at Edmonton Oilers (-210)

Nashville had no business winning on Tuesday in Calgary, as the Flames held owned a 73 percent share of expected goals and controlled 63 percent of the shot attempts, but they did. Nashville is a sub-par hockey team that gets great goaltending. Saros must be tired, but he’s still the best option, even on back-to-back. Maybe the Predators will go back to him on Wednesday, as they try to limit the damage that will be done by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but they are travelling with three goaltenders, and my starting goaltender prediction was wrong on Tuesday, so I’m going to take my medicine. In other words, I'm going to wait for the coach to confirm before betting either side on Wednesday.

Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 155) at Colorado Avalanche (-175)

Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen won’t play on Wednesday, Andre Burakovsky is doubtful to suit up and Jonas Johansson will start in goal for Colorado. That’s why the Avalanche are -175 at home against the Blue Jackets. Not to mention the fact that they’re already missing Valeri Nichushkin and Devon Toews. Columbus is a bad hockey team, but Elvis Merzlikins is a good goaltender, so it’s probably best to make sure he’s starting before making a move on this game.

Player Props:

Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots -145 (DraftKings)
Zach Werenski Under 2.5 Shots -140 (DraftKings)

It appeared to take MacKinnon a few games to get back up to speed, but he's averaged nine shot attempts per game over his last three outings. With so many injuries, it's going to be up to MacKinnon to put the team on his back on Wednesday, and I'm betting he can do that against a weak Blue Jackets team. This is my favorite prop on the board, but not far behind we have Werenski to register two shots or less, which the Propagator estimates will win approximately 70 percent of the time.

St. Louis Blues at Los Angeles Kings

Viktor Arvidsson will not play Wednesday, as both he and Gabriel Vilardi have been placed in COVID protocol. The Kings are already dealing with the loss of Drew Doughty, so this is another big blow to a team that has looked good to start the season. The Kings have yet to confirm a starting goaltender, which is important here. The Blues might get Brandon Saad back, but head coach Craig Berube wouldn’t confirm whether he’ll play in Los Angeles. Ryan O’Reilly is still out due to COVID, though, and the Blues are not the same team without him in the lineup.

Jordan Binnington is probably going to get the start in goal, as backup Ville Husso was placed in COVID protocol a couple of days ago, but once again, nothing has been confirmed. Conventional wisdom is going to push bettors to lay the favorite in this one, but I don’t think I’m going to get there. This is a tough game to price, though, as neither team’s rating is fully calibrated, given their current situations. This might be a game that’s worth revisiting later in the day when things shake out, but it’s not a game I want to bet on right now.

Note: Jonathan Quick is listed as the likely starter for the Kings but nothing has been confirmed.

Player Props:

Pavel Buchnevich Over 0.5 Points + 130 (DraftKings)

Buchnevich hasn't gotten off to a great start, but he's on the top power play unit, and has good linemates to play with five-on-five. The Propagator prices this prop closer to + 105, so it's a value play at + 130.

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Late Adds:

Pavel Buchnevich Over 0.5 Points + 130 (DraftKings)
Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots -145 (DraftKings)
Zach Werenski Under 2.5 Shots -140 (DraftKings)


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