NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 1/12

January 12, 2022 09:33 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Tuesday, Jan. 11th

Tuesday was a decent night, as recommended bets went 2-1. The Sharks picked up an overtime victory, and the Panthers dominated the Canucks and covered the puck line. However, prior to puck drop, it was announced that three of the Golden Knights skaters had entered COVID protocol, and I lost all the value that I thought I had accumulated throughout the day. Vegas was the better team, too, outshooting the Maple Leafs 39-18, but they fell in the shootout.

Record: 61-52, + 3.53 units, 3.3 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -109

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Wednesday, Jan. 12th

There are just three games on Wednesday, and they’re all mismatches. Boston and Toronto are both priced north of -300, while Dallas is priced at -200.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Montreal Canadiens (+ 270) at Boston Bruins (-330)

Montreal hasn’t played since New Year’s Day, which means they’ve had almost two weeks off. No team has been hit harder by the virus, and there’s still a lot of uncertainty about what the Canadiens’ lineup is going to look like on Wednesday. Brendan Gallagher, Jeff Petry, Christian Dvorak and Alexander Romanov are all questionable, while Tyler Toffoli and Josh Anderson are considered doubtful, as both players rehab injuries. All this uncertainty makes this game tough to handicap, but obviously, the Bruins are going to be big favorites regardless. According to my model, the Bruins should be priced no lower than -320, but depending on what kind of lineup Montreal puts together, a price close to -400 wouldn’t be unreasonable. Check back later for an update.

Seattle Kraken (+ 175) at Dallas Stars (-200)

Depending on who the Stars start in goal, the Stars should be priced somewhere between -195 and -210. However, since the current game line is -200, there won’t be enough value to justify laying the favorite, even if Jake Oettinger gets the start. I won’t be taking the dog, either, unless the odds move significantly. Of the three underdogs, the Kraken are the most likely to win the game, based on the odds. But bettors shouldn’t get confused, at + 200, the Kraken are not a value bet. Seattle ranks 28th by expected goals (for and against) according to Evolving Hockey, and they’ve been outscored 3.7 – 2.75 on a per 60-minute basis. This is a bad hockey team. The Stars grade out as the ninth best team by expected goals, but they’ve been outscored on aggregate. Dallas will win the game often, but I wouldn’t recommend laying -200.

Notes: Dallas forward Dennis Gurianov is in COVID protocol. Kraken forward Jaden Schwartz is still recovering from hand surgery.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-300) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 250)

Toronto picked up a win on Thursday in Vegas, but that came in a shootout, and they were probably fortunate to leave with two points. Now they’re in Arizona for a game against the Coyotes, but everyone in attendance will be there to see Auston Matthews, who is from the area. The Maple Leafs should have plenty left in the tank, and although it does concern me that Petr Mrazek has only played in three games so far this season, he’s had a lot of time to practice and prepare for this start. The rust, and the fact that the team will be playing their second game in as many nights, means that the Maple Leafs aren’t as likely to win as they would be if the team was rested and Jack Campbell was in goal, but they are priced short at -300. According to my model, the Maple Leafs should be priced somewhere between -330 and -365, depending on what Arizona’s lineup looks like, but I also think there’s a decent edge to be had on the puck line. Therefore, I recommend laying -125 (or better) on the Maple Leafs to cover (-1.5) and win by at least two goals. Arizona has lost by two or more in 19 of 33 games (57.6 percent) and the rate at which they keep the game within one is even worse after accounting for opponent strength. I have been able to lay -110 up to -120, without having to lay any -125. Shop around.

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line -1.5, -120 (BetMGM)

Player Prop Bets for Sunday, Jan. 9th:

Record: 110-107, -10.20 units, -3.95 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -108

Recap: Player prop bets went 3-0 on Tuesday, and as a result, I’ve chipped away at a big deficit. There are no recommended player prop bets for Wednesday currently.

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