NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 10/27

October 27, 2021 09:52 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Tuesday, Oct. 26th

Once again, player prop bets split 3-3 for a loss. Lame. Vancouver also failed to get the job done as home underdogs. Please read the Wednesday's report carefully, as I have made some slight changes.

Game Lines: 7-11, -5.05 units, -23.6 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -108

Player Props: 38-30, + 1.7 units, 2.0 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -117

Overall: 45-41, -3.35 units, -3.13 percent ROI

Market Report for Wednesday, Oct. 27th

So far this season, I have tried to only include bets that are widely available, and I’m going to continue to do that. However, a lot of value is being left on the table because I haven’t been recommending any wagers that don’t qualify to be a one-unit bet.

My personal betting record looks a whole lot better than the one in this report, and that’s almost entirely because I’ve been winning a lot of (small) half-size bets. So, from here on out, I’ll be including these bets in the report, along with the recommended bet size.

Player prop bets will be added later in the day.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Detroit Red Wings (+ 175) at Washington Capitals (-200)

When I woke up and saw the odds for this game, I was sure that I was going to have at least a small edge on the road team. I was surprised when I opened up my model and saw that I actually had the Capitals priced at around -190. Therefore, I have not made a play on this game and I probably won't, unless the Red Wings' price climbs to + 200 or better.

Boston Bruins (+ 115) at Florida Panthers (-135)

When it's all said and done, the Panthers and Bruins could end up being the two best teams in the East. They've both certainly looked the park so far. The Panthers have been on cruise control, and are currently sitting at 6-0 on the season, while the Bruins are 3-1-0 in their first four games. This is the biggest test of the season for both clubs. From a betting perspective, I've still got the Bruins rated slightly higher than the Panthers, and I'm not ready to buy any of what Sergei Bobrovsky is selling.


Boston Bruins + 115 (half size)

Toronto Maple Leafs (-200) at Chicago Blackhawks (+ 175)

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’re probably aware that the Blackhawks are in a state of disarray. Not only is the on-ice product awful, but the organization is undergoing some major changes after a sexual assault probe. It’s bigger than hockey, but we do have a hockey game to talk about on Wednesday, as the Maple Leafs are in Chicago to take on the depleted Blackhawks.

Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane are two of five players, and three coaches, currently in COVID protocol, and it doesn’t look like they’ll be available for the game against the Maple Leafs. Toronto should win the game about 66 percent of the time, which equates to a fair line of -195. The Maple Leafs have been one of the worst bets in all of hockey, and that’s true again tonight. There’s no value in laying the favorite and nowhere near enough incentive to take the dog.

Note: Kevin Lankinen (CHI) was in the starter’s crease at practice, but that’s far from a confirmation. He practiced in the starter’s crease on Sunday, but Marc-Andre Fleury ended up starting the game against the Red Wings.

Player Props:

Auston Matthews Over 4.5 Shots + 110 (DraftKings)

Seth Jones Under 0.5 Points -115 (BetMGM) and Under 2.5 Shots -105 (DraftKings)

Jones has four assists in six games, but he has looked like a shell of the superstar defensman that he projected to be just a few years ago. Sure, a depleted Pittsburgh team was able to trounce the Maple Leafs, but there's a very good chance that the Blackhawks get caved in by the road team on Wednesday. Expect shots and scoring chances to be very one-sided. Alternatively, Matthews should benefit a lot from the Blackhawks' roster problems, and should register five or more shots approximately 56 percent of the time.

Vegas Golden Knights (+ 120) at Dallas Stars (-140)

Robin Lehner picked up the win on Tuesday in Colorado, which means we’ll likely see Laurent Brossoit in goal for the Golden Knights on Wednesday in Dallas. The Stars will get John Klingberg back, who missed a few games with an injury. We could also see the return of Jason Robertson, who hasn’t played yet this season, and that would be a big boost to the Stars. Dallas has not looked good this season, in fact, they’ve been one of the worst teams in the league.

At five-on-five, the Stars grade out as the 28th team by expected goals, and the 27th team by goals (for and against), according to hockey stats website Evolving Hockey. The Golden Knights haven’t looked much better, and they’re still without their two best forwards, but the game line has simply shifted too much in favor of Dallas. It's tough to properly account for injuries of this nature, but I saw value in taking + 132 earlier this morning, so I did. I still like the Golden Knights at + 120, albeit, with much less risk.

Note: As you'll see below, I took an absolutely horrendous price on the Golden Knights in the early edition of the report. I knew Robertson would be returning, but I was under the impression that the market had priced him in and I was wrong. Regardless, I still very much like Vegas here, and if I'm going to add another half-size bet at the current line, + 135.


Vegas Golden Knights + 120 (half size)

Vegas Golden Knights + 135 (half size)

Philadelphia Flyers (+ 160) at Edmonton Oilers (-180)

On the surface, everything seems fine in Philadelphia, as the Flyers are off to a 2-1-1 start to the season. However, due to the luck factor in hockey, things aren't always as they seem. The Flyers grade out as one of the worst teams in the league in some important categories. According to hockey stats website Natural Stat Trick, the Flyers are 25th in shots (for and against) and 29th in scoring chances (for and against) at five-on-five. If this team is good at anything, it's playing possum and being opportunistic. But, I'm not sure it's intentional. The Flyers don't control play because they're not a good hockey team.

Edmonton is 5-0 to start the season, and while they have graded out similarly to the Flyers in categories like shots and scoring chances, the Oilers have been a good team for a while, and the Flyers have not been. In other words, I put a lot more stock into the Flyers early-season struggles than I do the Oilers issues, which is due in large part, to the fact that a single scoring chance from Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl is worth a hell of a lot more than any scoring chance the Flyers will produce.

Note: It looks like Ryan Ellis (PHI) will not play tonight in Edmonton.


Edmonton Oilers -180

Player Prop:

Zach Hyman Over 2.5 Shots + 125 (DraftKings)

Hyman has fit in perfectly with Connor McDavid and the rest of the Oilers starting lineup, not to mention, he's on the top power play unit. This prop is priced egregiously. Hyman should register three or more shots about 52 percent of the time, according to the Propagator.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Edmonton Oilers -180

Vegas Golden Knights + 120 (half size)

Boston Bruins + 115 (half size)

Late Adds:

Vegas Golden Knights + 135 (half size)

Zach Hyman Over 2.5 Shots + 125 (DraftKings)

Auston Matthews Over 4.5 Shots + 110 (DraftKings)

Seth Jones Under 0.5 Points -115 (BetMGM) and Under 2.5 Shots -105 (DraftKings)

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