NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 10/20

By Andy MacNeil  (VSiN.com) 

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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

Market Report Recap for Tuesday Oct. 19th

Sides split 1-1 on Tuesday, while player prop bets went 2-0. Overall, my record is starting to look a little better than it was before, but I'm still searching for winning sides.

Records 

Game Lines: 4-8, -4.65 units, -33.2 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -103

Player Props: 23-14, + 6.00 units, 12.8 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -115

Overall: 27-22, + 1.35 units, 2.2 percent ROI

Market Report for Wednesday, Oct. 20th

There are only two games on Tuesday, but both are marquee matchups. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Boston Bruins (-135) at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 115)

I’m still not sure what to make of the Bruins, but they certainly looked good in their season-opening win over the Stars. It’s going to take some time to see what this new-look Boston team is made of, though, but I feel better about my projection now that Jeremy Swayman appears to have won the starting job in goal. On the other hand, I’m confident that the Flyers are exactly who I thought they were. On Tuesday, we learned Martin Jones will start for Philadelphia on Wednesday, and that caused the game line to move overnight. However, it has since snapped back (due to some early action on the Flyers) and now I'm getting involved. Lay -135 (or better) on the road favorite.

Pick:

Boston Bruins -135

Player Props:

Ryan Ellis Under 0.5 Points -160 (BetMGM)

Ellis has gotten off to a hot start in Philadelphia but it's very unsustainable. Anything can happen in the short term, but the Propagator estimates that Ellis will go pointless against the Bruins approximately 66 percent of the time. In other words, a fair price should be closer to -200.

St. Louis Blues (+ 105) at Vegas Golden Knights (-125)

The big story here is that Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone are going to miss time. Pacioretty is expected to miss several weeks while Stone could be out for days or weeks. Obviously, this is a big blow to the Golden Knights. Bettors aren’t going to be able to sneak up on the sportsbooks here, though, as the market has already been shaped to reflect that information. In fact, after accounting for the loss of Pavel Buchnevich, who is serving a two-game suspension, I estimate that a fair line for this game should be around -128 in favor of the home team. In other words, I’m closer to laying the favorite here than I am to taking the dog.

Player Props:

Jonathan Marchessault Over 2.5 Shots -150 (DraftKings)

Marchessault's line will be elevated to the top starting position now that Pacioretty and Stone are out and the Propagator estimates Marchessault register over 2.5 shots on goal approximately 63 percent of the time. The over should be priced around -173, not -150.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Boston Bruins -135

Ryan Ellis Under 0.5 Points -160 (BetMGM)

Jonathan Marchessault Over 2.5 Shots -150 (DraftKings)

Late Adds:

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