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Market Report for Wednesday, Oct. 19th
Recap: Tuesday was the first losing night of the season. My bet on the Bruins was a bad one. Not because it lost. But because I did a poor job of gauging where the market was at on the Ottawa Senators. Then, the Tampa Bay Lightning, who I had bet to cover the puck line (-1.5 goals) not only failed to do so but lost to the Philadelphia Flyers after blowing a 2-0 lead.
Wins: 10 Losses: 8 Units Won: plus-0.79 units ROI: 4.8 percent
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Today: There are just three games on Wednesday, but there is a dozen on Thursday. So, even if I (or you) don’t find anything to bet on this card, there will be plenty of opportunities to get down on some action. Remember: It’s a long season.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake.
Philadelphia Flyers (plus-280) at Florida Panthers (-320)
Philadelphia kicked off its season with a win over the Devils in their home opener, and since then they’ve overcame multi-goal deficits in back-to-back games against the Canucks and, most recently, the Lightning to bring their record to 3-0. This proves hockey is the dumbest sport in the world, but we already knew that. It also proves that I’m dumb, too, because I bet against them in all three games. But it wasn’t like I was just fading them because they’re a bad team. My model suggested I do so. Thankfully, it’s not telling me to bet against the Flyers on Wednesday. They’re tired, and banged up with injuries, but the Panthers are missing their best defenseman, Aaron Ekblad, and a couple of other serviceable players, Anthony Duclair and Brandon Montour. Of course, Florida will win the game more than three out of every four times, but I can’t justify laying -320 here.
Winnipeg Jets (plus-190) at Colorado Avalanche (-220)
Winnipeg caught the New York Rangers on the second half of a back-to-back in their home opener. The Rangers didn’t start Igor Shesterkin, so it’s no surprise that they picked up a big win. However, they followed that up with a disappointing loss to the Stars in Dallas and will likely lose in Colorado on Wednesday. This is the first of two games in two nights for the Jets, who will travel to Vegas to play the Golden Knights on Thursday. Backup goaltender David Rittich could get a start, but then again, starter Connor Hellebuyck is typically reluctant to give up his crease, and regardless of how the head coach decides to run his goaltenders over the next two days, this is a tough spot to be in. As of now, I don’t have a bet on this game because my model is neutral is the Hellebuyck starts in goal. Rittich is not a good goaltender, though, and the Jets’ chances of winning this game would drop significantly if he was announced as the starter.
St. Louis Blues (-130) at Seattle Kraken (plus-110)
Seattle hosts St. Louis in its home opener on Wednesday. The Kraken are off to a slow start, again, winning just three out of their first four games. And, in each of those three losses, they’ve allowed five goals. They look like a fine team through the lens of metrics like expected goals and shot attempt percentage, but goaltending is an issue once again. Philipp Grubauer has allowed 10 goals on 67 shots (3.4 above expected) and any optimism in a rebound for the 30-year-old goaltender is quickly fading.
The Blues have had three days off since their season opening win over the Columbus Blue Jackets in St. Louis. They won all three games against Seattle last season, outscoring the Kraken 11-2 on aggregate. Seattle only scored two goals in the season series versus the Blues in 2021-22, but there’s a kicker: It wasn’t Jordan Binnington who shutdown Seattle last season. It was Ville Husso, who is now a member of the Detroit Red Wings. St. Louis is a much better offensive team than Seattle, and that’s why my model expects them to win the game often. But it doesn’t have confidence in Binnington, and neither do I.
The Kraken were a value bet earlier this morning, but unfortunately the odds moved from plus-125 to plus-110 before I published today’s report. My model estimates that the Kraken should be priced around plus-115, maybe a little worse than that depending on what the lineup looks like, so I wouldn’t recommend chasing the steam on the home team, but everyone is free to do what they want, of course. Not bet for me, though.