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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 10/13

By Andy MacNeil  (VSiN.com) 

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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All lines consensus via VSiN's NHL Odds Page

Betting recap for Tuesday, Oct. 12

It was all about player props on opening night and that approach delivered (+1.75) units and a 17.9 percent return on investment after a 5-3 outing. A good start to an otherwise quiet night of hockey.

Records: 

Game Lines 0-0

Player Props 5-3, (+ 1.75) units, 17.9 percent ROI

Market Report for Wednesday, Oct. 13

Like Tuesday, Wednesday’s game lines have been up for weeks, even months, and that makes it tougher to find good bets. It’s likely that any play on a game line is going to be driven by news regarding the status of a big name. There are three games in particular that are going to be worth watching because each includes a team that may or may not have the services of one of their best players.

Let’s take a look at things from a betting perspective.

Montreal Canadiens (+ 155) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-175)

Earlier I stated that I would play the Canadiens at + 150 (or better) if Mitch Marner was out. But there was a caveat. I would not being do so unless I had confirmation that he would be in the lineup. The Maple Leafs are already without Auston Matthews, and Marner is a difference maker. In other words, I don't want to get burned. Since then, it's started to look more and more like we will in fact see Marner in the lineup on Wednesday in Toronto but it hasn't been confirmed. Reporters don't always get everything right, though, and although there's no chance I'll be laying a big price with the Leafs, I still think this game is worth monitoring until we know more about Marner's status.

Player Props: Cole Caufield Under 2.5 Shots -125, Nick Suzuki Under 2.5 Shots -140 (DraftKings)

Because a subscriber reached out earlier and asked if there would be any player props listed for this game in today's report, I wanted to do my best to include one or two. But I'll admit, I had a tough time finding any props that I wanted to bet at first. However, once I greased the wheels they started to turn. The Canadiens aren't as deep as they were a season ago (no Phillip Danault) and that might mean that these young stars don't have as much time and space to create. I don't particularly like betting against either of these players, but if the Propagator says that both props should be priced closer to -200, I'm in.

New York Rangers (-105) at Washington Capitals (-115)

Niklas Backstrom is on injured reserve, so he’s been taken out of the equation, but Alex Ovechkin’s status is still up in the air. The 36-year-old suffered an injury in the preseason finale and is listed as day-to-day according to the Capitals. The market has snapped back after a premature move towards the Rangers and I agree with that. There’s no need to take the road team at a short underdog price when Ovechkin could be deemed fit to play. Sometimes it can pay to be speculative but most of the time you have to be first to market. Anyone betting the Rangers at -105 on Wednesday morning is going to be left with a bad number if they don’t get what they want. My advice is, if you’re going to be speculative in your approach to betting, bet very early, or wait for the news to push you in the right direction. Maybe you’d still like to bet on the Rangers even if Ovechkin does play, which seems likely according to reports. Just consider how the market might react if he’s in the lineup. It’s best to wait it out at this point.

Player Props: Anthony Mantha Under 0.5 Points -125 (BetMGM)

Mantha is on a line with Daniel Sprong and Lars Eller that doesn't exactly scream offense and the Propagator estimates that he will go pointless approximately 58 percent of the time. The fact that Mantha could still technically find himself on the top line in place of Ovechkin could have something to do with why this prop is mispriced, but as we've learned, it looks like the Capitals will have their captain in the lineup after all.

Vancouver Canucks (+ 160) at Edmonton Oilers (-180)

Brock Boeser travelled with the team to Edmonton, but as I mentioned in an earlier report, I believed that it meant he would play at some point on the Canucks' road trip. I didn't necessarily think he would play on Wednesday. Since then, after some confusing reports, we have learned that Boeser will not play against the Oilers and therefore I likely won't have any action on this game.

Chicago Blackhawks (+ 175) at Colorado Avalanche (-200)

Nathan MacKinnon tested positive for COVID and although he is asymptomatic, he clearly has to quarantine until he tests out. The Avalanche are hoping that he’ll be available for Saturday’s game but he’s definitely not going to be in the lineup on Wednesday. Obviously, the line has moved quite a bit since the market was made aware of this and because of that, there’s no value in backing the Blackhawks to pull off the upset.

Player Props: Seth Jones Under 0.5 Points -175 (BetMGM)

Jones is playing in his first game as a member of the Blackhawks, on the road, in Colorado. The Avalanche are arguably the best defensive team in the league. What more do we need to talk about. The Propagator points to this being a value bet at -175 and it's hard not to agree.

Winnipeg Jets (-135) at Anaheim Ducks (+ 115)

Something tells me the Jets are going to be a popular bet today given that they’re a relatively short favorite but I don’t believe you can just take any price that’s available. I think there’s some value in betting on the Jets at -140 or better. It would be higher if not for Mark Scheifele’s suspension, but because of an earlier move towards the Ducks, there’s value betting Winnipeg at the current consensus price. If only these two teams would wear throwback jerseys and have Teemu Selänne drop the puck every time they matched up.

Bet: Winnipeg Jets -135

Player Props: Trevor Zegras Under 0.5 Points -135

Andrew Copp Under 0.5 Points -125 (BetMGM)

Zegras is going to be a great NHL player. I'm pretty confident about that. Will he be great on Wednesday? It's only the start of his journey as an NHL player and if the Propagator is bullish on him failing to register a point against the Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets, I am too. 

Summary

Early Bets:

Winnipeg Jets -135 (VSiN Consensus)

Seth Jones Under 0.5 Points -175

Trevor Zegras Under 0.5 Points -135

Andrew Copp Under 0.5 Points -125 (BetMGM)

Late Adds:

Cole Caufield Under 2.5 Shots -125, Nick Suzuki Under 2.5 Shots -140 (DraftKings)

Anthony Mantha Under 0.5 Points -125 (BetMGM)

Don’t forget there’s still time to pick up your copy of VSiN’s 2021-22 NHL Betting Guide and follow me on Twitter.

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