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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 5/3

May 3, 2022 10:51 AM
USATSI_18129967

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge. Let’s look at each series from a betting perspective.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report for Monday, May 2nd

Not a great start to the playoffs, but it’s early. A 1-2 night is nothing out of the ordinary, but it will sting a little more if both the Boston Bruins and the Tampa Bay Lightning go down 0-2 later this week. Of the three underdogs I bet on, St. Louis was the only one to get the job done, but I don’t think any of the final scores (even the Blues 4-0 win) reflect what we’ll see in any series.

Record: 110-95, + 5.37 units, 2.5 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Read the full playoff preview here.

Market Report for Tuesday, May 3rd

Four series have already started, and the remaining matchups will kick off on Tuesday. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 115) at New York Rangers (-135)

There seems to be a common belief that the Rangers are going to mop the floor with the Penguins, because they’ve done so all season. New York won three out of four games against the Penguins in the regular season, and that seems to be the driving force behind that thought process. I don’t subscribe to that theory, but since goaltender Tristan Jarry is sidelined, this is a matchup that is a lot closer than I thought it would be. I don’t have a series bet, and I might not end up having any action in this series, as my model estimates that the Rangers should be priced around -110 in this game. They’ve got a big edge in goal with Igor Shesterkin, as Casey DeSmith has struggled to earn his spot on the depth chart, but the Rangers haven’t really seen a determined and healthy Penguins team since 2021. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin were only in the lineup for two games against the Rangers this season, as one or the other missed the other three meetings. The series is basically a pick ‘em according to the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, so my estimation that this is a 50-50 matchup isn’t too far off. There’s a little bit of value on the underdog, but not enough to warrant a bet currently.

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