NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 5/3

May 3, 2022 10:51 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge. Let’s look at each series from a betting perspective.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report for Monday, May 2nd

Not a great start to the playoffs, but it’s early. A 1-2 night is nothing out of the ordinary, but it will sting a little more if both the Boston Bruins and the Tampa Bay Lightning go down 0-2 later this week. Of the three underdogs I bet on, St. Louis was the only one to get the job done, but I don’t think any of the final scores (even the Blues 4-0 win) reflect what we’ll see in any series.

Record: 110-95, + 5.37 units, 2.5 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Read the full playoff preview here.

Market Report for Tuesday, May 3rd

Four series have already started, and the remaining matchups will kick off on Tuesday. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 115) at New York Rangers (-135)

There seems to be a common belief that the Rangers are going to mop the floor with the Penguins, because they’ve done so all season. New York won three out of four games against the Penguins in the regular season, and that seems to be the driving force behind that thought process. I don’t subscribe to that theory, but since goaltender Tristan Jarry is sidelined, this is a matchup that is a lot closer than I thought it would be. I don’t have a series bet, and I might not end up having any action in this series, as my model estimates that the Rangers should be priced around -110 in this game. They’ve got a big edge in goal with Igor Shesterkin, as Casey DeSmith has struggled to earn his spot on the depth chart, but the Rangers haven’t really seen a determined and healthy Penguins team since 2021. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin were only in the lineup for two games against the Rangers this season, as one or the other missed the other three meetings. The series is basically a pick ‘em according to the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, so my estimation that this is a 50-50 matchup isn’t too far off. There’s a little bit of value on the underdog, but not enough to warrant a bet currently.

Washington Capitals (+ 205) at Florida Panthers (-255)

As expected, Aaron Ekblad is good to go, and he will return to the lineup in Game 1 of Florida’s opening round series against the Washington Capitals. I (unofficially) have a bet on the Capitals to win the series, but it didn’t make it into the playoff preview because the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook (+ 260) aren’t big enough. Washington is priced too low here, according to my model. It suggests that Florida should only be priced around -175 in this game, and therefore, I’m going to take a swing and hope that the Capitals can pull of an upset in Game 1. I will be quick to make some arbitrary adjustments in the future if it looks like I’ve overestimated the Capitals ability to hang with a team like Florida, but I’m going into this series somewhat blind. The two teams met three times this season, but all those games took place in November and that was a long time ago. The Capitals did win two out of three, though, for what it’s worth. I am going to scale back the size of mt wager, though, because I am not all that confident in my assessment of this series. Maybe as the series goes on, I’ll feel differently.

Pick:

Washington Capitals + 205 (half size)

Nashville Predators (+ 260) at Colorado Avalanche (-330)

This is another series that I haven’t bet on yet, but I am interested in some markets, like team totals and player props. The Avalanche should defeat the Predators easily, and with backup David Rittich in goal for Nashville, they should score a lot of goals in the process. Rittich is probably the worst goaltender in the playoffs, and this could get ugly. Colorado will win the series almost 90 percent of the time, according to my model, and the betting market.

Dallas Stars (+ 185) at Calgary Flames (-215)

Calgary ought to be priced higher than they, according to my model, and I could justify betting on them to win the game straight up, but I’m going to take + 105 and hope that they cover the puck line. The edges are similar in size, and the Stars aren’t a good team on offense (second lowest scoring team in the playoffs), so the Flames should cover the puck line more than 50 percent of the time. Jacob Markstrom has been great this season, and I’m going to need him to be great in the playoffs if I want to cash my 50/1 ticket on the Flames to win the Stanley Cup and all the bets that I will likely make on them going forward. Calgary is one of the best defensive teams in the league, and the Stars aren’t likely to generate much offense in this series.

Pick:

Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5, + 105 (half size)

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Washington Capitals + 205 (half size)

Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5, + 105 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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