Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge. Let’s look at each series from a betting perspective.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.
Market Report for Monday, May 22nd
There were no recommended bets on Tuesday. Player prop bets went 1-3. Ondrej Palat went over 1.5 shots on goal, but Nick Paul and Jordan Kyrou didn’t come close. Aleksandar Barkov was the biggest disappointment, though, as he took just two of the Panthers 49 shots.
Record: 112-109, -5.4 units, -2.4 percent ROI
Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.
Market Report for Tuesday, May 24th
Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.
Carolina Hurricanes (-110) at New York Rangers (-110)
This series has become a goaltending duel, as the two teams have combined for just nine goals in three games, and neither goaltender has allowed more than two in a game. Andrei Vasilevskiy must be licking his chops at the thought of playing either of these teams in the Eastern Conference Final. There hasn’t been much separating the Hurricanes and Rangers at even strength, but the Rangers have looked a lot better than they did against the Penguins. Their offense isn’t clicking, but Shesterkin is starting to turn it on. Shesterkin has posted a .956 save percentage in three games versus Carolina, and if the Rangers can match his effort, they might just even up the series at 2-2. My model estimates that the Hurricanes should be priced around -115, and given the shot total in Game 3, that seems to be reasonable. Antti Raanta has been great in the playoffs, and he’s been very good in this series, but if Shesterkin has found his form, betting against him doesn’t sound like a wise move. Unless, of course, the market moves toward the Rangers. I’d bite on the Hurricanes at plus money.
Calgary Flames (+ 100) at Edmonton Oilers (-120)
How do you stop Connor McDavid? The Flames don’t seem to have an answer to that question, but more importantly, their top players have not been at their best, and that’s the biggest reason why the Oilers have taken a 2-1 series lead. Johnny Gaudreau doesn’t have a goal in the series, and he and his linemates (Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm) have only combined for two 5-on-5 goals in the series. The other reason that the Flames are down in the series is goaltending. Jacob Markstrom is not at fault for the Oilers’ win in Game 3, but he wasn’t good enough in the first two games and he hasn’t been able to outplay Mike Smith. So, now the question is, will the Flames be better in Game 4? Probably, but the Oilers were able to carry momentum from their win in Game 2 to Game 3, and the Flames’ top line must start scoring goals.
Calgary can outplay Edmonton, but they seem to be in awe of McDavid just like the rest of us, and who can blame them? McDavid is having the best playoffs of any player in history, and while the Flames might be able to outscore the Oilers when he’s off the ice, doing so when he’s on the ice has proved to be quite challenging. The Flames opened at -125 heading into Game 3 but opened as the underdog going into Game 4. The market doesn’t typically flip like that but given what we’ve seen over the last two games, it’s easy to see why. The Flames don’t look like the team that won the Pacific Division, and they certainly don’t look like a Stanley Cup contender, but everything can change in Game 4 with a good performance from their top stars. My model shows an edge on the Flames, obviously, but it also doesn’t do a good job of recognizing that McDavid has raised his game to a level that has never been seen in my lifetime, so it’s hard to trust the numbers that it spits out. My last bet on the Flames came with negative closing line value, and while I am still somewhat interested in betting them at a reduced price, I wouldn’t be surprised if the market moved toward the Oilers a little bit more.
As far as player props, Johnny Gaudreau has gone over 3.5 shots in five straight games, and he’s been averaging over four shots per game since Game 3 versus the Dallas Stars. Gaudreau hasn’t played great, but betting on him to get pucks to the net in Game 4 is a good bet because overall, he's been at his best under head coach Darryl Sutter, and tonight is the biggest game of the season.
Player Prop Picks via DraftKings Sportsbook:
Johnny Gaudreau Over 3.5 Shots + 100
There are no recommended bets currently.
Player Prop Bets:
Johnny Gaudreau Over 3.5 Shots + 100
Record: 118-119, -13 units, -4.67 percent ROI