NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 5/10

May 10, 2022 09:09 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report for Monday, May 8th

There were no recommended bets on Monday, as I did not have a chance to revisit the report and add a moneyline bet on the Flames. I sure am glad they won Game 4, though, as a loss would’ve resulted in them not having a chance to cover the series spread.

Record: 111-101, + 0.25 units, 0.1 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, May 9th

There are four games on Saturday. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Boston Bruins (+ 120) at Carolina Hurricanes (-140)

Charlie McAvoy was not expected to travel with the Bruins to Carolina for Game 5 due to COVID, and that’s a big loss for the Bruins, who managed to tie the series without him, and his partner Hampus Lindholm, in Game 4. Lindholm could be back in the lineup on Tuesday, though, and that will help the Bruins in their quest to take their first lead of the series. According to my model, the loss of McAvoy significantly reduces the Bruins’ chances of winning the game, though, and Carolina should be priced around -115 heading into Game 5. I would consider backing the Bruins if their moneyline odds reach + 125, but I wouldn’t hesitate to bet on them to win the game at + 130. Both of those prices are available to bettors if they shop around, but the consensus line of + 120 is too short to warrant making a wager. Carolina does benefit from McAvoy’s absence, but with no Frederik Andersen in sight, the Hurricanes still don’t have their most valuable player. Carolina has a better chance of winning the game than the Bruins do, but if you counted the Bruins out after they went down 0-2 in the series, you’ve already learned a valuable lesson. Don’t count out a veteran team with superstar talent. They’ve been here before.

Tampa Bay Lightning (+ 105) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-125)

The best-of-seven series between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning is now a best-of-three, with the former having home-ice advantage. The Maple Leafs had a chance to go up 3-1 in the series, but they played their worst game of the playoffs so far. The Lightning looked sharp, and Game 4 was decided in the first period. Heading into Game 5, there’s a sense that the Lightning have found their game again, and as we’ve seen in past years, that’s probably a bad sign for their opponents. The Lightning have the momentum heading into Game 5, and even though they’re on the road, my model estimates that they will win the game around 51 percent of the time. Bet the Lightning to win at + 105 or better, but shop around, as some sportsbooks are offering + 110.

Pick:

Tampa Bay Lightning + 105

St. Louis Blues (+ 115) at Minnesota Wild (-135)

St. Louis made the choice to go with Jordan Binnington over Ville Husso in Game 4, and while it did work out in their favor, puck luck was on their side. The Wild generated approximately four expected goals, the same number as the Blues, but only scored two goals, as almost half of their shot attempts failed to make it to Binnington. Each team has had decisive victories in this series, but the final scores aren’t a good reflection of how the games are played. This has been a very close series, and I don’t think that will change. According to my model, the Wild should be priced around -120 on home ice, and therefore, unless the road team’s odds climb back up to + 130 or better, I won’t be backing them to win Game 5. Of course, I’m still holding a ticket on the Blues to win the series, and my allegiance lies with them. My stance could change if Torey Krug is back in the Blues lineup, as he's an important part of the team. The Blues are down a few defenders, but Krug moves the needle quite a bit.

Los Angeles Kings (+ 180) at Edmonton Oilers (-210)

The most impressive thing about the Kings is that they’ve managed to stay in this series even though they don’t have Drew Doughty and Viktor Arvidsson. Doughty is not going to play again this season, but Arvidsson missing all four games was a bit of a surprise. There’s no word on whether he will return to the lineup in Game 5, but the way the Kings were able to dominate Game 4 is encouraging. Los Angeles owned 62 percent of the shots and approximately 58 percent of the expected goals and won the game 4-0. I wasn’t ready to count the Kings out but given that they were outscored 14-2 in two previous games, I wasn’t super optimistic about their chances. The Kings are a well-structured team, but if the Oilers offense sparks again, they’re going to be tough to beat on home ice.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Tampa Bay Lightning + 105

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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