NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 4/5

April 5, 2022 08:37 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Monday, April 4th

There were no recommended bets on Monday.

Record:

101-87, + 6.47 units, 3.3 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, April 5th

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

New York Rangers (-155) at New Jersey Devils (+ 135)

Starting goaltender Igor Shesterkin has only lost 14 games all season, but six of those losses have come since Feb. 26th. Shesterkin should still be regarded as one of the league’s top goaltenders, but he’s posted a .913 save percentage over his last 13 games and that’s a big drop of from the .940 mark that he posted in his first 33 games. There’s a chance that backup Alex Georgiev will be between the pipes on Tuesday in New Jersey, though, as the Rangers might want to rest Shesterkin for Thursday’s game against the Penguins. This will be the fourth and final time the Rangers and Devils meet up this season. New York has won two games, but the most recent game, on March 22nd, went to the Devils. Shesterkin allowed five goals in that game, after the Rangers had jumped out to an early 2-0 lead, and the Devils won the game by a score of 7-4. New York’s closing odds were around -150, which normally would suggest that the market expects Shesterkin to be in goal, but in this case, it’s more likely a reflection of Jack Hughes being listed as day-to-day. Hughes suffered an injury over the weekend and his status for Tuesday’s game is unclear.

Notes: Rangers’ forward Ryan Strome has been out since March 27th due to a lower-body injury and is questionable to play on Tuesday.

Toronto Maple Leafs (+ 145) at Florida Panthers (-165)

The Maple Leafs defeated the Lightning on Monday by a score of 6-2 and moved into sole possession of second place in the Atlantic Division. Jack Campbell made his second start in a row since returning from injury and posted a .941 save percentage. Rookie goaltender Erik Kallgren will be in goal on Tuesday, though, and he’s posted a .859 save percentage over his last four starts. The Maple Leafs defeated the Panthers on March 27th, but Florida was on playing their second game in as many nights and they had the luxury of playing on home ice. This time around, the shoe is on the other foot, and the Maple Leafs are on the second half of a back-to-back. Florida hasn’t lost a game since, and according to Natural Stat Trick, they have been generating 42 shots per 60 minutes since adding Claude Giroux at the trade deadline. The Panthers are playing their third game in four days, but they’re in a better spot than the Maple Leafs, and they’ve only lost six games on home ice all season. My model estimates that the Panthers will win the game about 64 percent of the time, assuming Sergei Bobrovsky is the starting goaltender.

Minnesota Wild (-120) at Nashville Predators (+ 100)

Minnesota is buzzing right now, having won nine of their last 10, but I believe they’re egregiously priced in Tuesday’s game against the Predators. The two teams last met on March 13th, and although the starting goaltenders were different, the Predators dominated the game with a 70 percent expected goal share and won 6-2. The Wild will probably have Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes this time around, and while Juuse Saros hasn’t been playing well as of late, the Predators should be a small favorite. This will be the third game in four days for the Wild, and according to my model, Nashville should be priced around -115.

Pick:

Nashville Predators + 100

Colorado Avalanche (+ 100) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-120)

The Avalanche and Penguins met on Saturday in Colorado and the home team won 3-2. It was an impressive victory, given that Nazem Kadri and Gabriel Landeskog are out indefinitely. Defenceman Samuel Girard is also out and listed as week-to-week. Pittsburgh’s lineup has some question marks as well, though, as a couple of players (Danton Heinen and Kasperi Kapanen) missed Monday’s practice due to an illness. It’s unclear who will start in goal. Neither player moves the needle all that much, but the Penguins would be better positioned to get a win with a lineup full of regulars. This should be another close game, and a fun one to watch, but it doesn’t interest me from a betting perspective.  

Boston Bruins (-200) at Detroit Red Wings (+ 175)

The Bruins picked up a 3-2 win over the Blue Jackets in Columbus on Monday, but they did not get out of the game unscathed as superstar forward David Pastrnak left the game with an injury and did not return. The team did not provide an update following the game but we they will likely disclose some information at some point before Tuesday’s game in Detroit. The Red Wings are a bad hockey team, and Boston will likely win the game regardless, but Pastrnak is the team’s leading scorer, and the Bruins have a much better chance of winning a given game with him in the lineup. My model prices the Bruins closer to -240 if Pastrnak is in the lineup but I’m going to assume he sits this one out just to be safe.

Notes: Jeremy Swayman is expected to start in goal for the Bruins.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Nashville Predators + 100

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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