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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 4/26

April 26, 2022 07:32 AM
USATSI_18117218

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Monday, April 25th

There were no recommended bets on Monday.

Record: 108-93, + 5.22 units, 2.5 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, April 26th

There are 13 games scheduled for Tuesday. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Carolina Hurricanes (-105) at New York Rangers (-115)

It doesn’t look like the injury to Carolina’s Antti Raanta is a serious one, but it looks like it might be up to rookie Pytor Kochetkov to man the crease and as the Hurricanes attempt to defeat the Rangers and clinch first place in the Metropolitan Division. Raanta is expected to backup Kochetkov on Tuesday. This will be the third game in a row for the 22-year-old rookie. He’s only played 88:36 so far but he has two wins to his name. It remains to be seen whether his pedigree will translate to a hot start in the NHL, but this will be his first real test. The Rangers have gone 18-8 straight up since the beginning of March, but they still haven’t been able to catch the Hurricanes, who are ahead by four points after winning seven of their last 10 games. The Rangers fell 4-2 to the Hurricanes on April 12th, but Frederik Andersen was in goal for Carolina, and Kochetkov appears to be a big downgrade. It’s also the third game in four days for Carolina, and the Rangers have been off for two days. The two teams have met three times since Jan. 21st, and the Hurricanes gone 2-1. Statistically, though, the Hurricanes have owned the season series, and Igor Shesterkin is the only reason my model doesn’t price the Hurricanes higher than -105.

Edmonton Oilers (+ 135) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-155)

Although the Penguins can’t improve their position in the standings, they can make it worse by losing. Washington is just one point back and they have a game in hand. Edmonton is in a similar situation, although they have one game in hand on the Los Angeles Kings. In other words, this isn’t a meaningless game. The Penguins have lost 10 of their last 16, but as I’ve stated on several occasions, I strongly believe that the team is better than their recent record. Tristan Jarry’s injury is a concern heading into this game, though, and it’s going to be a concern heading into the playoffs. If the Penguins were rested and Jarry was healthy, I would love to back them against the Oilers. But my model estimates that they should be priced around -150 under these circumstances.

New York Islanders (+ 165) at Washington Capitals (-185)

The Washington Capitals have stated that Alex Ovechkin is day-to-day with an upper body injury, which probably shouldn’t be taken at face value. Regardless of what Ovechkin is dealing with, though, the Capitals really have no reason to risk further injury. They’re going to make the playoffs, and while it would be nice to catch the Penguins, it’s probably more important that their best player is healthy and ready to go for a likely matchup with the Florida Panthers. I would lay -185 if Ovechkin was in the lineup, but without him, my model suggests the price should be closer to -175.

Update: Alex Ovechkin will be a game-time decision on Tuesday.

Florida Panthers (-125) at Boston Bruins (+ 105)

Assuming David Pastrnak and Hampus Lindholm are in the lineup, my model estimates that each team has about a 50 percent chance of winning, so + 105 isn’t enough to justify a bet on the home team, but I’ll take the dog if the odds get any bigger than that. Florida is coming off an 8-4 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning, but prior to that they had won 13 games in a row and betting against them isn’t fun. The Bruins are a much better team than they have shown lately, though, and while I don't expect them to hang with the Panthers offensively, even with Pastrnak and Lindholm in the lineup, home ice advantage is theirs and Sergei Bobrovsky hasn't been good in months.

Calgary Flames (-135) at Nashville Predators (+ 115)

The Predators still haven’t clinched a playoff spot, but they probably will, and their most likely first round opponent is the Calgary Flames. Nashville is the only Western Conference team that the Flames haven’t beat this season, but both games went to extra time and this game will be the better indication of what to expect in the playoffs. The first meeting that Nashville won was back in October, and the Flames were playing at a disadvantage in the last game on April 19th. Calgary was on the second half of a back-to-back, and backup Dan Vladar was in goal. This time around, I expect Jacob Markstrom to start, and the Flames have had two days off. For that reason, it doesn’t make any sense that Calgary isn’t a bigger favorite.  Therefore, laying the favorite at -135 is an easy bet to make. Nashville grades out as a below-average team, and Calgary is one of the best in the league. According to my model, the road team should be priced closer to -155, even though the home team has more to play for.

Update: Jacob Markstrom is apparently getting the night off. Dan Vladar is in the starter's crease at morning skate, and reports suggest he will be between the pipes against the Predators. This is a major letdown, and I wouldn't recommend betting on Calgary now. I'm stuck with the Flames, though, so I just have to hope that they can finally beat the Predators.

Pick:

Calgary Flames -135

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