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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 4/19

April 19, 2022 08:28 AM
USATSI_17082382

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Monday, April 18th

A late add on the Calgary Flames paid off as they cover the puck line (-130) in a 5-3 win over the Blackhawks. The game was closer than I would prefer, though, as it was 3-2 until the Flames potted two empty net goals. Calgary had a two-goal lead at two different points in the game, and after dominating the first two periods, it was all Blackhawks in the third. Regardless, Calgary is still perfect on the road when their odds are -175 or higher and they’ve covered the puck line each time.

Record: 108-92, + 6.52 units, 3.1 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, April 19th

There are ten games scheduled for Tuesday, but I'm taking a cautious approach. My philosophy is to let the good bets find me, and sportsbooks are not serving up very many soft lines at this point in the season. Not having any action on a busy Tuesday doesn't bother me, and I hope it doesn't bother any of you. I believe that one of the reasons I have been successful for as long as I have is my ability to know when there are no good bets to be made. There might be a bet added later in the day, but there are no early bets.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Philadelphia Flyers (+ 335) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-420)

Not only are the Flyers a bad team, but they’re also dealing with injuries to key players like Cam Atkinson and goaltender Carter Hart. They’ve only won three out of 11 games since trading away Claude Giroux at the deadline, and the team allowed four goals or more in each of the losses. Felix Sandstrom, a 25-year-old goaltender from Sweden, has started the last three games, and has posted a .915 save percentage, but he’s going to continue to see a lot of rubber as the Flyers are the fourth worst team in shots against per 60 minutes. There’s no word on whether Auston Matthews will be in the Maple Leafs’ lineup on Tuesday, as he missed the last game due to an injury, but either way, Toronto should be a big favorite. My model estimates that the home team should be priced around -345, if Matthews is not in the lineup, so I certainly won’t be taking the dog in this matchup.

Winnipeg Jets (+ 175) at New York Rangers (-200)

The Rangers still have their sights set on winning the Metropolitan Division, but head coach Girard Gallant has not yet confirmed whether Igor Shesterkin will start in goal or not. The Jets aren’t going to make the playoffs, and the absence of Mark Scheifele, their second-most productive forward, hurts the team’s chances of winning a given game. There’s no bargain to be had here, though, as my model’s estimate of the Rangers’ odds is in line with the market.

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