NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 4/19

April 19, 2022 08:28 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey

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Market Report Recap for Monday, April 18th

A late add on the Calgary Flames paid off as they cover the puck line (-130) in a 5-3 win over the Blackhawks. The game was closer than I would prefer, though, as it was 3-2 until the Flames potted two empty net goals. Calgary had a two-goal lead at two different points in the game, and after dominating the first two periods, it was all Blackhawks in the third. Regardless, Calgary is still perfect on the road when their odds are -175 or higher and they’ve covered the puck line each time.

Record: 108-92, + 6.52 units, 3.1 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, April 19th

There are ten games scheduled for Tuesday, but I'm taking a cautious approach. My philosophy is to let the good bets find me, and sportsbooks are not serving up very many soft lines at this point in the season. Not having any action on a busy Tuesday doesn't bother me, and I hope it doesn't bother any of you. I believe that one of the reasons I have been successful for as long as I have is my ability to know when there are no good bets to be made. There might be a bet added later in the day, but there are no early bets.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Philadelphia Flyers (+ 335) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-420)

Not only are the Flyers a bad team, but they’re also dealing with injuries to key players like Cam Atkinson and goaltender Carter Hart. They’ve only won three out of 11 games since trading away Claude Giroux at the deadline, and the team allowed four goals or more in each of the losses. Felix Sandstrom, a 25-year-old goaltender from Sweden, has started the last three games, and has posted a .915 save percentage, but he’s going to continue to see a lot of rubber as the Flyers are the fourth worst team in shots against per 60 minutes. There’s no word on whether Auston Matthews will be in the Maple Leafs’ lineup on Tuesday, as he missed the last game due to an injury, but either way, Toronto should be a big favorite. My model estimates that the home team should be priced around -345, if Matthews is not in the lineup, so I certainly won’t be taking the dog in this matchup.

Winnipeg Jets (+ 175) at New York Rangers (-200)

The Rangers still have their sights set on winning the Metropolitan Division, but head coach Girard Gallant has not yet confirmed whether Igor Shesterkin will start in goal or not. The Jets aren’t going to make the playoffs, and the absence of Mark Scheifele, their second-most productive forward, hurts the team’s chances of winning a given game. There’s no bargain to be had here, though, as my model’s estimate of the Rangers’ odds is in line with the market.

Minnesota Wild (-270) at Montreal Canadiens (+ 230)

Minnesota comes into this game having won 13 of their last 17 games, but they’re not at full strength after injuries to a few important players. Matt Dumba, Jordan Greenway and Marcus Foligno are all regarded as day-to-day, and the latter won’t travel with the team because of COVID-19. Still, the Wild should defeat the Canadiens, who have only won five out of their last 20 games. Montreal’s opponents have covered the puck line in seven out of their last 10 games, but I’m not going to bet on a banged-up team that’s playing their third game in four days. According to my model, the Wild should be priced around -240.

Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning

Red Wings’ forward Dylan Larkin will miss the remainder of the season, which means an already bad Detroit team should be even worse down the stretch. The Lightning haven’t been playing good hockey, though, and while I don’t believe the price is egregious, I’m not going to be laying the favorite in this matchup. Head coach Jon Cooper has stated that Brian Elliott will likely start three more games for the Lightning between now and the end of the season, and Tuesday’s matchup with the Red Wings seems like a good spot to give Andrei Vasilevskiy some much needed rest.

Florida Panthers (-200) at New York Islanders (+ 180)

This is the fourth game in six days for the Islanders, which will make an already tough spot even tougher, as the Panthers are coming into this game having won 10 in a row and 13 out of their last 14. The two teams have met twice already this season, and both times, the Panthers were dominant, winning 6-1 and 5-1. The Panthers’ depth has taken a hit due to some recent injuries, but they should pick up a win on Tuesday. According to my model, the Panthers should be priced around -250 if Sergei Bobrovsky is in goal, but since that hasn’t been confirmed, I’m not going to lay the favorite just yet.

Boston Bruins (+ 115) at St. Louis Blues (-135)

The Bruins and Blues met last week in Boston, and while the Bruins looked to be in control early, it was the Blues who skated away with a 4-2 victory. St. Louis has scored at least four goals in 12 straight games, while the Bruins have scored just 10 goals over their last five outings. To make matters worse, forward David Pastrnak and defenceman Hampus Lindholm aren’t with the team on the road. The Bruins have had a couple of days off, though, and that gives them a slight advantage over the Blues, who are playing their third game in four days. My model prices this game at around -115 in favor of the Blues, but I would need the road team’s odds to dip to around + 125 before I would consider backing them.

Calgary Flames (-135) at Nashville Predators (+ 115)

Calgary picked up another win on the road in Chicago on Monday, and while the Flames were great in the first two periods, they looked gassed in the final frame. Fatigue should be a concern for bettors heading into Tuesday’s game against the Predators, but Nashville’s starting goaltender, Juuse Saros, will be playing his third game in four days. Therefore, the Predators won’t receive much of a boost from the fact that the Flames are on the second half of a back-to-back. The Predators have been licking their wounds since Sunday’s 8-3 loss to the St. Louis Blues, and while they should be hungry to pounce on Flames’ backup goaltender Dan Vladar, my model estimates that Calgary will win this game around 59 percent of the time. That means a fair price on the Flames is closer to -145, and while I could justify laying -135, I’m going to hang back and see how the market behaves throughout the day. I’m not confident that I’d be getting the best of the number if I decided to place my bet now, and I’d rather miss out than make a bet that I might regret making later in the day.

Update: I bet the Flames at -120 and -125, but the best I can do here is -130. Half of the sportsbooks on the VSiN NHL Odds page are at -130 or better, but if you shop around (and you should) there are much better prices available.

Pick: 

Calgary Flames -130

Bet Summary:

Late Adds:

Calgary Flames -130

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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