NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 4/12

April 12, 2022 08:32 AM
USATSI_16152620

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Monday, April 11th

There we no recommended bets for Monday.

Record:

104-88, + 8.67 units, 4.4 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, April 12th

All but four teams are in action today as there are 14 games on Tuesday’s schedule.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

St. Louis Blues (+ 135) at Boston Bruins (-155)

Defenceman Torey Krug and forward Tyler Bozak are travelling with the Blues on the road but it’s unclear if they will be ready to suit up on Tuesday. The Bruins have also run into some trouble with injuries, as forward David Pastrnak, and two of their top-four defenders, Hampus Lindholm and Matt Grzelcyk are on the shelf. There isn’t much information available about those players, and their status for Tuesday is up in the air. The Blues struggled through most of the month of March, but they have won seven of their last eight, and they scored an average 4.75 goals per game during that stretch. The Bruins have been hot for a while now, having lost only six games out of their last 24, but things are going to get tough down the stretch if they aren’t icing a healthy lineup. I’m going to assume that Krug and Bozak suit up, just to be safe, and I believe the current price (-155) is appropriate if none of the injured Bruins return to the lineup.

Anaheim Ducks (+ 350) at Florida Panthers (-450)

There’s no bargain to be had here, as the Panthers are priced at -450 heading into Tuesday’s matchup against the Ducks. My model estimates that the home team should be priced around -500. The Ducks only have four wins over their last 21 games, and they grade out as the third worst team on offense since the turn of the calendar. In other words, it’s very unlikely that the road team will be able to keep pace with the Panthers on Tuesday, as they are the league’s best team on offense. They don’t have anything to play for, though, and the Panthers have a knack for falling behind and before roaring back to win the game, and I’ll stick with my strategy of searching for in-game betting opportunities if there are no value bets to be made pregame.

Buffalo Sabres (+ 350) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-450)

Bettors know that the Maple Leafs have a penchant for playing down to weaker teams, as they haven’t fared well as heavy favorites. This season alone, there have been 31 instances where Toronto has come into a game with moneyline odds of -200 or higher and they’re 19-12 in those games. Bad luck has contributed to that less-than-stellar record, though, and I’m not someone that necessarily subscribes to the notion that the Maple Leafs simply mail it in when facing off against inferior competition. Toronto is an elite team, and I don’t think backing the Sabres is a good bet.

Notes: Jake Muzzin and Wayne Simmonds missed practice on Monday, and they are questionable heading into Tuesday’s game. Erik Kallgren will be in goal for Toronto.

Pittsburgh Penguins (-125) at New York Islanders (+ 105)

Evgeni Malkin was handed a four-game suspension for his antics in Sunday’s game in Nashville, which will likely cause some bettors to steer clear of the Penguins on Tuesday, but not me. My model prices the road team around -140, and therefore, I’m laying the favorite at -125 or better. The Penguins have only won three out of their last 10 games, and I guess the market is down on them as a result. They faced some tough competition, though, and while that’s not an excuse for a losing record, my model doesn’t seem to be punishing them as much for it. The Islanders have a winning record (13-9) since the beginning of March, but they don’t have strong peripherals and the Penguins should win this game approximately 59 percent of the time.

Notes: Tristan Jarry is expected to start for the Penguins. Ilya Sorokin is expected to be in the crease for New York.

Update: Unfortunately, Tristan Jarry will not start, as Casey DeSmith was the first goaltender to leave the ice at practice. If you're just reading the report for the first time, I no longer recommend a bet on the Penguins.

Pick:

Pittsburgh Penguins -125

San Jose Sharks (+ 175) at Nashville Predators (-200)

Goaltender Juuse Saros missed the Predators' last game against the Penguins on Sunday due to a non-COVID related illness. He is currently listed as day-to-day and it's unclear if he'll be back between the pipes on Tuesday when the Sharks come to town. If he isn't healthy, backup goaltender David Rittich will get another start. Rittich has a 5-5 record and a .891 save percentage on the season, and if he starts, the Sharks would be the right side at + 175. I wouldn't recommend a bet on the Sharks otherwise, and I'm not willing to take an early position on this game.

Edmonton Oilers (+ 110) at Minnesota Wild (-130) 

I've had a hard time handicapping the Minnesota Wild this season. Sometimes I've hit the nail on the head, but the rest of the time, they've made a fool out of me and it's cost me overall. I don't think the Wild are an elite team, but they're probably better than my model gives them credit for. I'm not particularly high on the Oilers, either, but Cam Talbot will be in goal for the Wild and, according to my model, the home team should be priced around -135 as a result. Edmonton has had a lot of success recently, winning 12 of their last 16 games, but most of those wins came against non-playoff teams and fringe playoff teams. I won't disrespect the Wild and put them in the latter category, but I'm not interested in laying the favorite unless the price comes down.

Notes: Jesse Puljujarvi is travelling with the Oilers but he's still listed as day-to-day at this time.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-145) at Dallas Stars (+ 125) 

The Lightning have gone 11-4 straight up against Dallas dating back to the 2020 Stanley Cup Final when they were the last two teams standing in The Bubble, and I would know, because I bet on the Lightning in a lot of those games and made a lot money doing so. Of course, the Lightning are a different team now, with no Yanni Gourde, Barclay Goodrow or Blake Coleman, and they haven't been playing well lately. Tampa Bay has lost 10 of their last 17 games, while the Stars are coming into the game hot, having won nine of their last 14. The Stars are beyond mediocre most nights, though, and the Lightning have a much higher ceiling with Andrei Vasilevskiy in the crease. Brian Elliott started the last game, and earned a 5-0 shutout, so I'm confident that the team will go back to Vasilevskiy on Tuesday. Scott Wedgewood is in the starter's crease at Stars' practice and according to my model, Tampa Bay should be priced around -165, and therefore, I'm laying the road favorite at -145 or better.

Pick:

Tampa Bay Lightning -145

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Pittsburgh Penguins -125

Tampa Bay Lightning -145

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

 

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

A Numbers Game: The Braves might be better than last season. Still value on them in the futures markets.

Follow The Money: When looking at totals the key stats to focus on are pace of play and number of plays, according to college football handicapper Paul Stone.

View tips for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Matt Youmans: Arizona +13 vs Oregon

Josh Appelbaum: Browns +3 vs Chargers

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-10-03_at_7.42.33_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

 

 

Close