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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 3/29

March 29, 2022 07:50 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Monday, March 28th

There were no recommended bets on Monday.

Record:

99-83, + 8.35 units, 4.4 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, March 29th

There are nine games scheduled for Tuesday, but the day is filled with marquee matchups.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Toronto Maple Leafs (+ 110) at Boston Bruins (-130)

The Bruins will host the Maple Leafs on Tuesday in what will be the latter’s third game in four days. Toronto split a set of back-to-back games over the weekend by losing to the Montreal Canadiens and then defeating the Florida Panthers. It’s unclear who will start for the Maple Leafs on Tuesday, but Jeremy Swayman will be in goal for the Bruins. Toronto must be feeling good about themselves after taking out the Panthers on home ice, but the Bruins have won 14 of their last 17 games and look to be hitting their stride. Boston has been the best team in the league by expected goals since the All-Star break, according to Natural Stat Trick, and they have a 56.2 percent share of the goals during that stretch as well. The Bruins have outscored the opposition 3.05 – 2.38 on a per 60-minute basis since Feb. 7th, while the Maple Leafs have barely been scraping by with a 50.3 precent goal share. According to my model, the home team should be priced around -140. I recommend laying a small bet on the favorite at -130.

Pick:

Boston Bruins -130 (half size)

Carolina Hurricanes (+ 120) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-140)

Carolina spanked the Capitals in Washington on Monday by a score of 6-1. Frederik Andersen was in goal for the Hurricanes, and that means the Lightning will probably be facing off against backup Antti Raanta. The Lightning have just four wins in their last 10 games, so picking up a win over a strong team like the Hurricanes would be a big boost for this club. Tampa Bay has struggled to generate goals as of late, scoring two or fewer in seven of their last nine, and Raanta is no slouch. Carolina has also been struggling on offense, but they’ve started to turn the corner. They’ll be tired on Tuesday, though, and goals should be hard to come by with Andrei Vasilevskiy between the pipes. The two teams have only scored eight goals combined in the season series (Carolina leads 2-0) and this will be the final time the teams meet. Both previous games were settled by one goal, and I’m expecting another tight game on Tuesday. This time, however, the Lightning should come out on top, as my model estimates that their moneyline odds should be closer to -150.

New York Rangers (+ 140) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-160)

These two teams met last week in New York, and while the Penguins were there in body, but not in spirit. A night off in New York might have had something to do with the team’s poor play (resulting in a 5-1 loss) and Evgeni Malkin’s mysterious illness. Anyway, the Penguins roared back with an 11-2 win over the Detroit Red Wings, and they’ll be looking to remind the Rangers who the superior team is. The Rangers are set to play their second game in as many nights in Detroit on Wednesday, but head coach Gerard Gallant would be foolish to start Alex Georgiev against the Penguins. Igor Shesterkin will almost certainly be between the pipes on Tuesday. He’s capable of winning a game on his own, but the Penguins and Rangers rank fifth and sixth respectively in goals against per 60 minutes. Pittsburgh has a big edge on the Rangers in most other categories, though. According to my model, the Penguins should be priced closer to -185. Bet the Penguins on the moneyline at -165 or better.

Notes: Rangers’ forward Ryan Strome is regarded as day-to-day after leaving Sunday’s game with an injury.

Pick:

Pittsburgh Penguins -160

Colorado Avalanche (-105) at Calgary Flames (-115)

The Flames and Avalanche traded wins earlier this month in Colorado, and this game will serve as the rubber match, and send one of the two best teams in the Western Conference into the playoffs with extra bragging rights. Neither team has much incentive to win, but this is the type of game that players get up for regardless of the standings. Colorado still does not have captain Gabriel Landeskog in the lineup, but my model still rates them slightly higher than Calgary in terms of their overall strength. The Flames have been closing the gap all season long, though, and now, there’s not a lot separating them. Calgary also has home ice this time. According to my model the Flames price appropriately at -115.

Update: Nathan MacKinnon is out for the Avalanche, but the value is long gone. I was making myself some lunch and missed betting on the Flames.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Pittsburgh Penguins -160

Boston Bruins -130 (half size)

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