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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 3/22

March 22, 2022 08:17 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Monday, March 21st

Money came in on Edmonton throughout the early part of the day and pushed Colorado’s odds down to -175 and -180, but since I thought the home team’s odds should be closer to -220, I was more than happy to fade the steam. It was a sweat, but the Avalanche picked up the win in overtime.

Record:

95-79, + 7.77 units, 4.3 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, March 22nd

The trade deadline has come and gone, and now the stretch run toward the playoffs begins. There are 11 games scheduled for Tuesday and I have one early bet.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Tampa Bay Lightning (-110) at Carolina Hurricanes (-110)

Since coming back from the All-Star break, the Hurricanes rank 23rd on offense, scoring 2.75 goals per 60 minutes. It’s not a small sample size, either, as the team has played 20 games during that stretch. Carolina is still a top-five team on defense, thanks in large part to the play of their goaltenders, but the drop of in offense is concerning. Prior to the All-Star break, the Hurricanes graded out as the fifth-best team on offense, scoring goals at a rate of 3.5 per 60 minutes, and fix the problem if they’re going to hang with the likes of the Lightning and Panthers come playoff time. The Lightning have a new look after adding Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul, and Andrei Vasilevskiy provides stability in goal. Tampa Bay hasn’t been wowing anybody with their play as of late, and Carolina does have the capacity to shut them down, but if the road team finds a spark on offense, it’s going to be hard for the Hurricanes to keep up, assuming Andrei Vasilevskiy is in goal. Carolina hasn’t scored more than three goals in a game since Feb. 25th, and they’ve lost their last four games in a row. There’s nothing egregious about how this game is priced, according to my model. It will be a fun one to watch, but that’s it.

Vegas Golden Knights (+ 135) at Winnipeg Jets (-145)

When the Golden Knights rolled through Winnipeg last week at the tail-end of their road trip, they opened at -110 but quickly moved to -125. Later in the day, I was on Prime Time Action just before the game and talked about how I thought the line should be -145 in favor of the Jets once it was confirmed that Max Pacioretty would be out. The Jets were a great bet on that night, but now oddsmakers have a better idea of where the Golden Knights are at, and there isn’t anywhere close to as much value laying -145 on the favorite this time around.

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