NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 3/22

March 22, 2022 08:17 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Monday, March 21st

Money came in on Edmonton throughout the early part of the day and pushed Colorado’s odds down to -175 and -180, but since I thought the home team’s odds should be closer to -220, I was more than happy to fade the steam. It was a sweat, but the Avalanche picked up the win in overtime.

Record:

95-79, + 7.77 units, 4.3 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, March 22nd

The trade deadline has come and gone, and now the stretch run toward the playoffs begins. There are 11 games scheduled for Tuesday and I have one early bet.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Tampa Bay Lightning (-110) at Carolina Hurricanes (-110)

Since coming back from the All-Star break, the Hurricanes rank 23rd on offense, scoring 2.75 goals per 60 minutes. It’s not a small sample size, either, as the team has played 20 games during that stretch. Carolina is still a top-five team on defense, thanks in large part to the play of their goaltenders, but the drop of in offense is concerning. Prior to the All-Star break, the Hurricanes graded out as the fifth-best team on offense, scoring goals at a rate of 3.5 per 60 minutes, and fix the problem if they’re going to hang with the likes of the Lightning and Panthers come playoff time. The Lightning have a new look after adding Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul, and Andrei Vasilevskiy provides stability in goal. Tampa Bay hasn’t been wowing anybody with their play as of late, and Carolina does have the capacity to shut them down, but if the road team finds a spark on offense, it’s going to be hard for the Hurricanes to keep up, assuming Andrei Vasilevskiy is in goal. Carolina hasn’t scored more than three goals in a game since Feb. 25th, and they’ve lost their last four games in a row. There’s nothing egregious about how this game is priced, according to my model. It will be a fun one to watch, but that’s it.

Vegas Golden Knights (+ 135) at Winnipeg Jets (-145)

When the Golden Knights rolled through Winnipeg last week at the tail-end of their road trip, they opened at -110 but quickly moved to -125. Later in the day, I was on Prime Time Action just before the game and talked about how I thought the line should be -145 in favor of the Jets once it was confirmed that Max Pacioretty would be out. The Jets were a great bet on that night, but now oddsmakers have a better idea of where the Golden Knights are at, and there isn’t anywhere close to as much value laying -145 on the favorite this time around.

Of course, the Vegas is on the second half of a back-to-back, after losing 3-0 to the Wild on Monday night in Minnesota, which puts them in an even tougher spot than last time. The Winnipeg roster is still mostly intact following the trade deadline, but they are a little worse off. My model estimates that the Jets will win the game around 60 percent of the time, which means their odds should be closer to -150. I would have recommended making a small bet on the Jets at -140, but the game line moved while I was publishing the report. I wouldn’t recommend chasing the steam.

Notes: Connor Hellebuyck will likely start in goal on Tuesday, as the team is set to play three games in four nights, but there’s been no word from the team yet. Laurent Brossoit will probably start for the Golden Knights after Logan Thompson took the loss on Monday.

Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 270) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-330)

Joonas Korpisalo will get the start for the Blue Jackets on Tuesday, and Rikard Rakell will make his debut for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Tristan Jarry was the first goaltender off the ice which means he's the likely starter. My model prices the Penguins at around -430, and I made a small bet on them to cover the puck line at -130.

Pick:

Pittsburgh Penguins Puck Line -1.5, -130 (half size)

St. Louis Blues (+ 120) at Washington Capitals (-140)

Vladimir Tarasenko, Robert Thomas and Tyler Bozak are all out for St. Louis, who have lost seven of their last nine games. The Capitals, who have won seven of their last nine games, are also missing some important players. T.J. Oshie and Nick Dowd are both regarded as day-to-day and their status for Tuesday’s game is unknown, but the big story is that John Carlson missed practice on Monday and should be considered questionable as the Capitals get set to host the Blues. Washington’s offense has found a spark, scoring at least four goals in seven of their last nine games, and they should win this game approximately 55 percent of the time, even without Carlson. If Carlson and Oshie are back in the lineup, the Capitals should be priced around -145, assuming the starting goaltenders are Vitek Vanecek and Ville Husso are the starting goaltenders. This is Washington’s fourth game in six days.

Updates: Vanecek will start in goal for the Capitals, and it also looks like T.J. Oshie and John Carlson will both be in the lineup. Marcus Johansson will also make his entry into the Capitals after being acquired in a trade with the Kraken. 

San Jose Sharks (+ 230) at Calgary Flames (-270)

San Jose is a bottom-five team on offense, but since Feb. 7th, they’ve been the worst team in the league in terms of goals scored (2.2) per 60 minutes. This will be their fourth game in six days. Calgary has been on a rampage for a while now, going 20-7 straight up since Jan. 18th and they covered the puck line in 17 on those wins. They rank second behind the Florida Panthers on offense since the All-Star break, and first on defense. There’s no guarantee that Jacob Markstrom will start this game, but since the Flames are going to have two days off before playing back-to-back games against the Arizona Coyotes and Edmonton Oilers, I’m confident that he will be between the pipes on Tuesday against San Jose. My model estimates that the Flames should be priced closer to -400 if that’s the case, and I recommend betting the home team to cover the puck line at -120.

Pick:

Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5, -120

Edmonton Oilers (+ 110) at Dallas Stars (-130)

Once again, early money has pushed the Oilers’ odds down, as they get set to play the second half of a back-to-back in Dallas. The Stars are listed at around -130 at most shops, but some sportsbooks have moved the number to -120. I’m neutral on this game, as my model suggests the Stars should be priced around -125, but the move doesn’t surprise me. The Oilers played a good game against the Avalanche, and it was their first loss in their last five games, so it makes sense that some bettors are choosing to back them against a Stars team that has lost four of their last six games. Dallas is also missing defenceman Miro Heiskanen. The Oilers will be tired, but this is will also be the third game in four days for the Stars. Jake Oettinger and Mikko Koskinen are expected to be the starting goaltenders.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5, -120

Pittsburgh Penguins Puck Line -1.5, -130 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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