NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 3/15

March 15, 2022 08:08 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Monday, March 14th

There were no recommended bets on Monday.

Record:

92-77, + 5.77 units, 3.3 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, March 15th

The NHL is back with 11 games on Tuesday after a slow Monday. I have one early bet to start the day.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

New York Islanders (+ 125) at Washington Capitals (-145)

Both Washington and New York have won four of their last five games, but even though the Islanders have four games in hand on the Capitals, it’s going to be borderline impossible for them to make up enough ground to catch up. Washington has an 18-point lead on the Islanders in the standings. Washington did struggle for a long stretch, but I didn’t think it would last and they look to be figuring things out, specifically on offense. My model might be underrating the Islanders, as it has in the past, but it estimates that the Capitals will win the game approximately 62 percent of the time. That means a fair line for this game should be closer to -165.

Pick:

Washington Capitals -145

Anaheim Ducks (+ 180) at New York Rangers (-210)

Since the All-Star break, the Rangers and Ducks rank 26th and 27th respectively on offense, according to Natural Stat Trick, but the Ducks are used to being here. The Rangers, however, had been an average team on offense up until that point, and they have a better chance of snapping out of it than the Ducks do, especially in the short term. Anaheim is dealing with several injuries to key forwards like Ryan Getzlaf, Jakob Silfverberg and Rickard Rakell. They also traded Josh Manson, a serviceable member of their defense corps, to the Avalanche in exchange for futures. Oh, and we’re probably witnessing the demise of goaltender John Gibson. The Ducks are in the playoff hunt, but it’s hard to see them squeaking in now that Gibson is no longer providing them with above average goaltending. Gibson was great in the first half of the season, but over his last 10 games, he’s allowed approximately 21 goals above expected and the Rangers will have a big edge in goal if Igor Shesterkin is in the crease. There’s a lot of question marks about the Ducks’ lineup, though, and Ranges’ head coach Gerard Gallant probably won’t confirm his starting goaltender until later in the day.

Arizona Coyotes (+ 140) at Montreal Canadiens (-160)

The Coyotes have won six of their last nine games, but the team will be without their best defender, Jakob Chychrun, after he suffered a lower-body injury in Saturday’s 3-2 loss to the Bruins in Boston. Chychrun was sent back to Arizona for further evaluation. Arizona defeated the Senators on Monday in Ottawa, and according to my model, the Canadiens should be priced around -150.

Dallas Stars (+ 125) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-145)

Auston Matthews will miss the next two games due to a suspension. That probably won’t stop him from winning the Rocket Richard trophy, and it won’t stop the Maple Leafs from making the playoffs, but it will make it a lot more difficult for the team to win their next two games. The team is still without Jake Muzzin, too, which means they’re missing their leading scorer and their best defender, and their goaltenders can’t seem to make enough saves. Dallas is without Miro Heiskanen due to an illness, and he will not play on Tuesday in Toronto. My model suggests that there’s value in laying the favorite, but my confidence in its assessment of the Maple Leafs is low. I’m going to look elsewhere for value today.

Vegas Golden Knights (+ 105) at Winnipeg Jets (-125)

Only one team has scored fewer goals per 60 minutes than the Golden Knights since the All-Star break, and the team continues to be plagued by injuries to some of their best offensive players. Mark Stone has been on injured reserve for a while now, but recent injuries to Max Pacioretty, Reilly Smith and goaltender Robin Lehner have put the team in an even tougher position. They’re barely hanging onto the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, and a loss to Winnipeg would mean that three teams would all be within two points of Vegas in the standings. The Jets have been a tough team to figure out, but they clearly have a high ceiling. Winnipeg should be able to outscore the Golden Knights, especially if Pacioretty isn’t able to play. Backup Eric Comrie has been good for the Jets this season, but I would be surprised if Connor Hellebuyck isn’t in the crease for what will be an important game. According to my model, the Jets shouldn’t be priced around than -125 if Pacioretty is in the Vegas lineup, and much higher if he isn’t. I'm frustrated because the game line moved before I could get a full bet down, and before I could publish the report. There's a chance that Pacioretty won't be able to play, and I wanted to get out in front of that, but now I guess I'll wait until there's more information.

Pittsburgh Penguins (-110) at Nashville Predators (-110)

Assuming Tristan Jarry and Juuse Saros are the starting goaltenders, my model prices the Penguins closer to -120. The Penguins have won five of their last seven games, and nine of 14 since the All-Star break. The Predators, meanwhile, have won six of their last nine games, after struggling to win games for much of January and February. I don’t think I’ll lay the favorite in this game unless the price comes down, though, as many sportsbooks have the Penguins lined at -115 and I don’t recommend bets that I haven’t made myself.

Boston Bruins (-175) at Chicago Blackhawks (+ 155)

The Bruins picked up a 4-3 win over the Blackhawks in Boston last Thursday. Jeremy Swayman and Kevin Lankinen were the starting goaltenders. Linus Ullmark will get the start for the Bruins in the rematch, though, and when you combine that with the venue change, and the possibility that Marc-Andre Fleury will be in the crease, their chances of winning this game aren’t as good. Boston has been having trouble putting lesser teams away as of late and Ullmark has been well below average this season.

Notes: Jeremy Swayman will start on Wednesday in Minnesota.

Detroit Red Wings (+ 230) at Edmonton Oilers (-270)

Detroit has lost eight of their last 10 games, including five in a row, and the team is coming off one of their worst performances of the season in Calgary. The Red Wings have the worst on-ice save percentage in the league since the All-Star break, according to Natural Stat Trick, and no team has allowed more goals. Since Feb. 7th, the Red Wings have posted a mark of 4.75 goals against per 60 minutes. The team that ranks 31st (Minnesota) has allowed 4.2 goals per 60 minutes during that stretch. Detroit is a bad hockey team, maybe one of the worst in the league, but if Edmonton is betting on Mike Smith to find his game, I’m not going to bet on them.

New Jersey Devils (+ 135) at Vancouver Canucks (-155)

Canucks’ forward Elias Pettersson was unavailable on Sunday due to an injury, and he is not expected to return to the lineup in time for Tuesday’s game against the Devils. New Jersey, on the other hand, did receive good news, as it looks like forward Nico Hischier will be good to go. This news moves the needle toward the Devils, but if Thatcher Demko is in goal, the Canucks will still be in a good position to win the game. The Devils will play the Flames on Wednesday, and it’s unclear who will start in goal. Nico Daws is the better option, given that he’s providing the Devils with average goaltending, but there’s a chance that they decide to go with Jon Gillies on Tuesday, and he’s been awful. Check back later for an update.

Colorado Avalanche (-190) at Los Angeles Kings (+ 170)

Los Angeles will be shorthanded when they host the Avalanche on Tuesday, but we don’t know what the lineup will look like. Viktor Arvidsson and Dustin Brown are listed as week-to-week, but several players, including Drew Doughty, are listed day-to-day and some of those players might be able to play. This matchup will be the fourth game in six days for the Kings, who have won nine of their last 13 games. Colorado is coming into this game having lost four of their last six games, and they’re also missing some key players, including captain Gabriel Landeskog. Check back later for an update.

Florida Panthers (-240) at San Jose Sharks (+ 200)

Sergei Bobrovsky will likely back be between the pipes for the Florida Panthers on Tuesday, but nothing has been confirmed. And it’s unclear who will start for the Sharks. There’s no value backing the home dog but laying the favorite might not be out of the question. However, I’ll want to know who the starting goaltenders are going to be before I make a final decision. Check back later for an update.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Washington Capitals -145

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

 

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