NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 3/1

March 1, 2022 08:44 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Monday, Feb. 28th

The Bruins picked up a sweat-free win, defeating the Kings 7-0 on the road Monday night in Los Angeles. It was only a small bet, but I’m happy to take the profit.

Record:

There are nine games on Tuesday, but there's one early bet that I must post immediately. 

80-70, + 2.85 units, 1.9 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, March 1st

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Ottawa Senators (+ 290) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-350)

The Lightning defeated the Predators 3-2 in Saturday’s outdoor game in Nashville, and it looks like they had themselves a good time following the win. The team will play three games in four days, starting with a matchup at home versus the Senators on Tuesday. I have placed a bet on the Lightning to cover the puck line (-1.5 goals) at -145 or better. There’s a chance that Brian Elliott will be in goal, but they will play two games in two nights against Pittsburgh and Detroit later this week, and I’m going to guess his next start will be against the Red Wings. The Senators are dealing with a flu bug, and Thomas Chabot (who claims to have lost 13 pounds in a matter of days) is one of the players impacted by the virus. Josh Norris and Drake Batherson are still out, although the former is hopeful to play on the road trip. Matt Murray is expected to start in goal for Ottawa. Assuming Andrei Vasilevskiy is in goal, my model estimates that the Lightning should be priced north of -500 on the moneyline, and therefore, I’m taking a calculated risk in the hopes that Vasilevskiy is between the pipes, but there's also a chance that more players could be out due to illness. Bet Tampa Bay to cover the puck line at -145.

Pick:

Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line -1.5, -145

New Jersey Devils (+ 110) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-130)

Now that the Devils are healthy again, their offense has come to life. They picked up a 7-2 win over the Canucks on Monday, and now they’ll face off against the Blue Jackets in Columbus on Tuesday. This game has the highest total and that checks out.  Both New Jersey and Columbus rank in the top-15 on offense, as both score goals at a rate of three or more per 60 minutes, and they both rank in the bottom-10 on defense.

Notes: John Gillies and Elvis Merzlikins are expected to be the starting goaltenders. Zach Werenski is listed as day-to-day and his status for Tuesday’s game is up in the air.

Edmonton Oilers (-160) at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 140)

Philadelphia snapped a six-game losing streak on Saturday as they squeaked out a 2-1 win over the Capitals. They’ve had a couple of days off, while the Oilers have had a day off to travel from Carolina. This will be the Oilers third game in four days, and according to my model, they will win the game approximately 61 percent of the time. That means they should be priced closer to -160.

Notes: Carter Hart will start for the Flyers and Mikko Koskinen will start for the Oilers. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is out with an injury.

Carolina Hurricanes (-210) at Detroit Red Wings (+ 180)

Alex Nedeljkovic and Antti Raanta will be the starting goaltenders. I had anticipated this, and now I’m curious where the game line is going to settle. Circa Sports has the Hurricanes listed at -195, but the consensus line is still -210. The Hurricanes opened at around -225.

Update: The line has settled at -210. I have placed a small bet on the Hurricanes to cover the puck line (-1.5 goals) at + 125. Carolina is the best defensive team in the league, and although that is partly due to Frederik Andersen's play this season, Raanta has been solid in the backup role. The Hurricanes are also a top-10 team on offense, while the Red Wings rank in the bottom-10 defensively. Detroit is also a below average team on offense, ranking 20th in goals per 60 minutes. Nedeljkovic hasn't been good this season, and neither have the Red Wings. Detroit has lost 30 games this season, and they lost 23 of those games by two or more goals.

Pick: 

Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5, + 125 (half size)

Calgary Flame (-120) at Minnesota Wild (+ 100)

Earlier this morning I was laying -105 and -110 on the Flames, but the line quickly moved to -115 and -120, which is about where my model prices the Flames, assuming Jacob Markstrom is in goal. Cam Talbot will start for the Wild. He’s struggled this season and has been particularly bad as of late. The Flames owned about 65 percent of the shot attempts in their 7-3 win over the Wild on Sunday, and they should control most of the shots and scoring chances in this game, despite being on the road.

Montreal Canadiens (+ 190) at Winnipeg Jets (-220)

Nikolaj Ehlers was at practice on Monday, but he was sporting a non-contact jersey and is not expected to be in the lineup on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Cole Perfetti has not resumed skating yet. The Canadiens are also missing some regulars (Paul Byron, Joel Armia, Christian Dvorak, Jonathan Drouin and David Savard) but Montreal is coming into this game with swagger, which is something the Jets don't have at the moment. Winners of five in a row, Montreal is playing inspired hockey under interim head coach Martin St. Louis, and the team looks rejuvenated in some ways, but that streak likely ends in Winnipeg. That doesn't mean there's value on the Jets, though. My model prices Winnipeg -225 and I'm happy about that because the Jets are not a team that I want to be laying big prices on. At least not at the moment.

Notes: Connor Hellebuyck and Samuel Montembeault will be the starting goaltenders.

New York Islanders (+ 250) at Colorado Avalanche (-300)

New York is playing their third game in four days, and Mat Barzal will not be in the lineup. The Islanders are coming off a 4-0 shutout win over the Anaheim Ducks, but they were losers of 10 of their last 15 games prior to that, and they don't stand much of a chance against the Avalanche on Tuesday. The Islanders 27th ranked offense is no match for Colorado, who are right behind the Florida Panthers as the best offensive team in the league. According to my model, there is value laying -115 on the Avalanche to cover the puck line.

Pick: 

Colorado Avalanche Puck Line, -1.5 -115 (half size)

San Jose Sharks (+ 195) at Vegas Golden Knights (-230)

More details to come.

Boston Bruins (-185) at Anaheim Ducks (+ 165)

John Gibson missed the last game due to an illness, and his status for Tuesday is unknown. Boston is coming in hot, having won five straight games, and they’ll likely leave Anaheim with two points, but according to my model, they shouldn’t be priced any higher than -180, depending on who starts in goal.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line -1.5, -145

Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5, + 125 (half size)

Colorado Avalanche Puck Line -1.5, -115 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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