NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 2/8

February 8, 2022 10:16 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Monday, Feb. 7th

There were no recommended bets on Monday.

Record:

71-65, -1.35 units, -1.0 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, Feb. 8th

There are seven games scheduled for Tuesday, but it looks like it might be a quiet day in terms of my betting activity. I’m sure things will pick up in the coming days, but for now, game lines appear to be sharply priced.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

New Jersey Devils (-110) at Montreal Canadiens (-110)

New Jersey fell to the Senators 4-1 on Monday in Ottawa. Jack Hughes (COVID) and Dougie Hamilton (injury) were not in the lineup, and they won’t play on Tuesday, either. The Canadiens will have more NHL players in their lineup on Tuesday than they did before the break, as several players (including Brendan Gallagher and Paul Byron) have recovered from the injuries that were keeping them out of action. Don’t get me wrong, the Canadiens are a bad hockey team, but their chances of winning a given game have improved, and the Devils are a bad team, too. John Gillies will likely get the start in goal for the Devils, but it’s unclear who will start for the Canadiens. Either way, my model prices this game as somewhat of an even split, and it doesn’t look like there’s going to be any value in taking a position on either side unless the odds change significantly.

Update: Cayden Primeau will start for the Canadiens.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 110) at Boston Bruins (-130)

Evgeni Malkin was added to the COVID protocol list on Monday, and he will not be available for Tuesday’s game against the Bruins in Boston. Jeremy Swayman will start for the Bruins, who have cooled off on offense as over their last six games. Boston hasn’t scored more than three goals in that span, and they haven’t defeated an opponent by more than one goal in 10 games. That’s too close for comfort, against a Penguins team that has better underlying metrics, and a better goal share. And even though the Penguins are without Malkin, the Penguins will take a next-man-up approach and still pose a serious threat to the Bruins. Still, the Bruins have home ice, and the loss of Malkin must be accounted for, and that means the Bruins are going to win the game more often than the Penguins. How often will depend on which goaltender Pittsburgh decides to start in goal. Head coach Mike Sullivan could choose to give Tristan Jarry some rest after a busy weekend representing the Metropolitan Division at the All-Star Game.

Update: Tristan Jarry will start for the Penguins.

Carolina Hurricanes (-230) at Ottawa Senators (+ 195)

Toronto defeated Carolina 4-3 in overtime on Monday. Frederik Andersen took the loss. Antti Raanta will likely be between the pipes when the Hurricanes visit the Senators in Ottawa on Tuesday. Teuvo Teravainen did not play for the Hurricanes, but he was a game-time decision and that will likely be the case again on Tuesday. Anton Forsberg will start for the Senators, who are missing two of their best players, Josh Norris and Drake Batherson. The Senators originally opened around + 220 but were bet down to where they are now at around + 195. I don’t believe that move was + EV, and there might be a little bit of value on the Hurricanes (assuming Teravainen is in the lineup) if the line stays put.

Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 210) at Washington Capitals (-240)

Capitals’ head coach Peter Laviolette expects that Ovechkin will play now that he has cleared COVID protocol, but regardless of how it all plays out, bettors should note that Ovechkin will not be able to travel with the team to Montreal for Thursday’s game against the Canadiens due to Canada’s requirement that travellers coming from across the border be at least 10 days removed from their positive COVID test. T.J. Oshie (upper body) has not yet resumed skating. Ovechkin will almost certainly play against the Blue Jackets, but there are some other unknowns, like who will start in goal. It makes a difference whether Joonas Korpisalo or Elvis Merzlikins is in goal, and Vitek Vanecek has been better than Ilya Samsonov in roughly the same amount of ice time. The Blue Jackets have earned just six wins in their last 15 games, but the Capitals have also been bad, with seven wins in their last 16 games. Washington should win the game, but given their current form, laying the favorite is a tough sell.

Update: Pheonix Copley was the first goaltender off the ice at the Capitals’ practice this morning, which means he could be getting the start against the Blue Jackets. Of course, there’s still no word on who will start for Columbus.

Minnesota Wild (-150) at Winnipeg Jets (+ 130)

Winnipeg is already missing Nikolaj Ehlers due to injury, and now Pierre-Luc Dubois has been placed in COVID protocol and will not be available for Tuesday’s game against the Wild. Dubois has been a horse for the Jets this season. He’s second on the team in goals and points and he also leads the team in power play goals. The Jets are now down more than a handful of regulars due to injury and illness, and it’s going to be tough for them to pick up a win against a tough opponent like the Wild. Unfortunately, Winnipeg’s injury list isn’t a secret, and oddsmakers opened the game at -135 and it was bet up to -145 and -150 overnight. And since my model prices the game close to -150 in favor of the Wild, it doesn’t look like there’s anyway to capitalize on the Jets’ misfortunes. I may look to get involved in-game, depending on the game situation, as the Wild are a top-five team on offense and Kahkonen has been playing the best hockey of his career.

Update: As expected, Connor Hellebuyck will get the start for the Jets, and since the consensus game line has moved to -140, I'm now able to justify making a small wager on the road team.

Pick:

Minnesota Wild -140 (half size)

Vegas Golden Knights (-115) at Edmonton Oilers (-105)

Tuesday’s game against the Oilers in Edmonton is the first half of a back-to-back for the Vegas Golden Knights, as they will travel to Calgary to play the Flames on Wednesday. Robin Lehner seems like the obvious choice to face the Oilers, but Laurent Brossoit is familiar with that group, and will be an option to start. The Flames are a better team than the Oilers, and the Golden Knights are likely not going to play Lehner on back-to-back nights. Vegas is healthy, and they’re so much tougher to play against when Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty are on the top line together. The Oilers grade out better than the Golden Knights in many meaningful categories, but given that Vegas has played shorthanded so much, it’s easy to look at their year-to-date stats and not consider this. Mike Smith, who has played just six games this season, will be back in the crease for the Oilers. Like Vegas, Edmonton is healthy. They’ve won five of their last six, but their schedule helped them a lot. The Golden Knights should be priced as the favorite here, but the final price will depend on which goaltender gets the nod from head coach Pete DeBoer.

Arizona Coyotes (+ 210) at Vancouver Canucks (-250)

Quinn Hughes will not be in the Canucks’ lineup on Tuesday when they host the Coyotes, as he was placed in COVID protocol on Monday. That’s a big loss for the Canucks, and I was a bit surprised when I ran my model this morning and it generated a price around -220 in favor of the home team, but I guess that goes to show you just how bad the Coyotes are. Sure, they’ve won more games in their last 17 than they did in their first 28, but they’ve only outshot the opposition on five occasions, and they’ve played 45 games. Karel Vejmelka has been a bright spot, at times, but he’s allowed almost eight goals above expected on the season. On any given night, it’s a coin flip as to whether Vejmelka will give the Coyotes a lift or not. Vancouver is, at best, an average hockey team, but there’s a good chance that they get past the Coyotes on Tuesday, even without Hughes.

Bet Summary:

Late Adds:

Minnesota Wild -140 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended play prop bets currently.

 

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