NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 2/15

February 15, 2022 10:27 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Monday, Feb. 14th

Toronto got the job done on Monday in Seattle. They led 3-1 after the first period and never looked back, winning the game 6-2 and covering the (-1.5) puck line at + 105.

Record:

73-67, -0.5 units, -0.4 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, Feb. 15th

There are nine games scheduled for Tuesday, but game lines are sharp. There are smaller edges, but nothing I would recommend currently. Hopefully something will shake out later in the day.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

St. Louis Blues (-200) at Ottawa Senators (+ 180)

Ottawa played five games in seven days last week, and came out on top, going 3-2 straight up. Tuesday will be their sixth game in nine days, though. Thomas Chabot will not play on Tuesday, which means the Senators are now without two of their best defenders, as Josh Norris is also out, and their best forward, Drake Batherson. In other words, a tough spot just became even tougher. Matt Murray is expected to start in goal for the Senators, but I’d like to know that Ville Husso is going to start for St. Louis before I finalize my price on this game. I don’t know what’s going on with Jordan Binnington, but he looks broken, and I don’t want to give up one and a half goals, or lay -200, in case the Blues decide to give him the start. Husso was in the starter’s crease at practice on Monday, though, which is a good sign.

New York Islanders (-190) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 170)

The Islanders’ time as one of the league’s best teams is over, at least for now. New York never reached the top, but they were right there. Now, the best they can hope for is to be a tough team to play against. It won’t get them into the playoffs this season, and their changes will have to be made, but the Islanders’ underlying numbers have been good over their last dozen games, and if Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov continue to play well, the Islanders might start to win some games. However, laying -190 on the Islanders doesn’t sit well with me, as my model prices the game closer to -165 in favor of the road team.

Notes: Dustin Tokarski will start for the Sabres.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-290) at New Jersey Devils (+ 245)

Dougie Hamilton has been sidelined since Jan. 2nd, but there’s a chance that he could return to the Devils’ lineup on Tuesday. Jack Hughes is back in the lineup, though. Whether Hamilton plays or not will make a difference in how my model prices this game, but either way, the Lightning any cheaper than -285, assuming Andrei Vasilevskiy is in goal.

Notes: John Gillies is expected to start for the Devils.

Philadelphia Flyers (+ 255) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-310)

Philadelphia is coming off back-to-back losses to the Red Wings, while the Penguins are back to their winning ways with three straight victories. The Penguins are going to start to click with Evgeni Malkin back in the lineup, but as was the case when Sidney Crosby returned after a long absence, it doesn’t always happen immediately. A date with the Flyers is just what the Penguins need to feel good about themselves and where their game is. Philadelphia ranks 28th in expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey, while the Penguins rank third. The Penguins are a top-10 team on offense and the Flyers are a bottom-10 team on defense. Philadelphia’s inability to score goals (28th in goals for per 60 minutes) is very likely to result in them being outscored by the Penguins. Not only that, but Pittsburgh should win the game by two goals, or more, approximately 59 percent of the time. Unfortunately, the game moved a lot overnight and continued to move into the morning. Bettors wanting to bet the Penguins on the puck line will have to lay around -135. On Monday, the line was closer to -120. Therefore, I’m going to hang back and wait until the teams announce their starting goaltenders, because at this point, there’s no guarantee that I won’t get the worst of the number.

Notes: Casey DeSmith was the first goaltender off the ice at Penguins’ practice this morning, which is a good indication that he will start in place of Tristan Jarry. This reduces the Penguins’ chances of winning the game, but if the Flyers decide to go with Martin Jones in goal, there might still be a reason to have action on this game.

Boston Bruins (+ 120) at New York Rangers (-140)

Boston is still without Brad Marchand (suspension) and Patrice Bergeron (head injury). Jeremy Swayman will start in goal for the Bruins. Igor Shesterkin will likely get the start for the Rangers, as this is New York’s first game back since the All-Star break. Adam Fox says he’s feeling 100 percent after a stint on injured reserve, and he’ll be back with the team on Tuesday. The Bruins were able to defeat the Senators without their two top stars, but the Rangers are a different story. Boston’s best hope is that they get the jump on a rusty team, but the Bruins will likely need some puck luck in order to pick up a win on Tuesday. The Rangers aren’t a strong team at even strength, but the Bergeron and Marchand are big-time play drivers, and that should open things up for New York. According to my model, the Rangers should be priced around -120.

Washington Capitals (+ 115) at Nashville Predators (-135)

Neither team has been good as of late, but the Predators still have a big edge in goal, assuming Juuse Saros gets the start, and they have home-ice advantage. I have Washington rated a bit higher than Nashville, and according to my model, the Predators should be priced around -115.

Dallas Stars (+ 215) at Colorado Avalanche (-245)

This is the first half of a back-to-back for the Avalanche, as they will host the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday. They defeated the Stars 4-0 in Dallas on Sunday. Dallas defender John Klingberg did not play in that game and his status for Tuesday is up in the air. The Avalanche will likely split the two games between starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper and backup Pavel Francouz, and if I had to guess, the latter will probably get the start against the Stars on Tuesday. Therefore, how Colorado should be priced will depend on whether Klingberg is in the Stars’ lineup or not. According to my model, the Avalanche should be priced between -240 and -260, but based on the current consensus game line, there won’t be a big enough edge to act on any news.

Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 240) at Calgary Flames (-270)

Calgary made the first big splash of trade season (we’re about five weeks away from the trade deadline) when they acquired forward Tyler Toffoli from the Montreal Canadiens. Toffoli is a complete player that can play in any role that the coaching staff sees fit. The Flames already have one of the best offenses in the league, and Toffoli will be a great compliment to the forward group. The Flames will likely destroy the Blue Jackets, just like they did a few weeks ago in Columbus, but bettors shouldn’t look past the fact that they will host the Anaheim Ducks on Wednesday. I expect the coaching staff to split these next two games between Jacob Markstrom and Dan Vladar, and since the Ducks are a team that Calgary is competing with in the Pacific Division, they might decide to rest Markstrom for that game. In my opinion, the bettors that have influenced the line movement on this game are taking added risk, given that the game line could end up closing worse if Vladar ends up in goal.

Edmonton Oilers (+ 105) at Los Angeles Kings (-125)

Edmonton didn’t have any trouble getting past the San Jose Sharks on Monday. They won the game 3-0 and owned approximately 75 percent of the shot attempts and expected goals. It was a truly dominant performance, and I’m left wondering if my model is going to be capable of gauging this team going forward. The Oilers new head coach Jay Woodcroft seems to be sending a message that’s resonating with the group, and if he can add real structure to their game, the team’s most talented players might be enough to overcome whatever shortcomings they have. According to my model, the Kings should be priced around -125, and that’s where they sit at most shops. It’s been a while since we saw the Kings in action, but let’s not forget how good this team was heading into the All-Star break. According to Evolving Hockey, the Kings have the second best shot share and sit just outside the top-10 in expected goals percentage. Los Angeles has only scored 50 percent of the goals, but they’re a tough team to play against, as they typically control most shots and scoring chances.

Notes: Mike Smith is expected to start in goal for the Oilers.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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