NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 2/1

February 1, 2022 10:50 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Monday, Jan. 31st

Anaheim fell in overtime to give me my fourth straight loss in extra time. A lot of my profit has been wiped out over the last week, and that sucks.

Record:

71-64, + 0.2 units, 0.1 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, Feb. 1st

There are 11 games scheduled for Tuesday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Toronto Maple Leafs (-240) at New Jersey Devils (+ 200)

For a while, it looked like the Devils might blow out the Maple Leafs, but the home team stormed back and won the game 6-4. Now, the two teams will meet in New Jersey on Tuesday for a rematch. Toronto will likely turn to Petr Mrazek, while the Devils will probably be forced to start John Gillies between the pipes. Obviously, this puts the Maple Leafs in a much better position than the Devils, given that Mrazek would be a starting goaltender on most teams, and Gillies should be in a lower league like the AHL. The Devils are 1-6 on the second half of back-to-back situations this season, and they’ll probably be 1-7 when the night is over. My model prices the Maple Leafs around -255, and even though Dougie Hamilton did not play on Monday and isn’t expected to play on Tuesday, there’s a chance that he could.

Notes: Toronto defenseman Jake Muzzin will not play.

Washington Capitals (+ 135) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-155)

Another installment of Sidney Crosby vs. Alexander Ovechkin. The two icons have gone head-to-head more than 50 times and the excitement still hasn’t worn off. Unfortunately, I didn’t see value in taking the dog, or laying the favorite, so I probably won’t have any action on this game. The Penguins are playing their fourth game in six days, while the Capitals have had three days off. There’s not a whole lot separating these two teams, but since Malkin has returned to the lineup, and the Capitals are still dealing with some injuries to key players, the Penguins ought to be priced around + 140, according to my model. Tristan Jarry gives the home team an edge in goal, assuming he gets the start, regardless of which goaltender the Capitals decide to go with.

Notes: The Capitals will play the Oilers at home on Wednesday. Washington forward T.J. Oshie is out, but defender Nick Jensen is expected to play.

San Jose Sharks (+ 245) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-290)

Lightning head coach Jon Cooper said that he hoped Nikita Kucherov would be back in the lineup before the break, but that could be in doubt. The Lightning would love their star player, who has only played in 11 games so far this season, to get into the action, as the team will only play three times in two weeks following the All-Star game. However, although Kucherov has cleared COVID protocol, he will not play on Tuesday against the Sharks. Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to start in goal for the Lightning, and my model in line with how the market does currently.

Florida Panthers (-160) at New York Rangers (+ 140)

Florida took care of business on Monday in Columbus, defeating the Blue Jackets by a score of 8-4. Tuesday’s game against the Rangers is their final game before the break. Spencer Knight will probably get the start in goal, since Sergei Bobrovsky played on Monday, and that means the Panthers’ chances of winning the game aren’t as good as they would have been had it been the other way around. Assuming Igor Shesterkin starts, the Rangers will have an edge over the Panthers in goal, and it will be the only one that they have. Florida is one of the best teams at even strength, and overall. The Rangers, on the other hand, are one of the worst teams in the league in terms of shot attempt percentage and expected goal share. The Rangers have an even tougher time gaining possession of the puck, creating offense and limiting the oppositions chances when Adam Fox isn’t on the ice, and he’s not going to be back in the lineup until after the All-Star Game. The Panthers originally opened at around -145 before being bet to -160 and -165, but the line has snapped back at enough sportsbooks that I can recommend laying the favorite at -155, as that is now the consensus line at the VSiN. The Panthers haven’t been good on the road this season, and I’m hoping they start to turn that around with a win over a much weaker team. The Panthers will be tired, but the Rangers are playing their fourth game in six days.

Pick:

Florida Panthers -155

Seattle Kraken (+ 220) at Boston Bruins (-260)

The Bruins are coming off an embarrassing 6-1 loss to the Stars in Dallas, and Tuukka Rask is not expected to be in the crease due a lower-body injury, but that could change. Erik Haula, who has been very good for the Bruins as of late, will not be in the lineup due to COVID.

Winnipeg Jets (-160) at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 140)

Winnipeg and Philadelphia both ended losing skids recently, and although the Flyers winless streak was twice as long, their season is already over. Things don’t look much better for the Jets, but they still have a pulse at least. Connor Hellebuyck should get the start in goal for Winnipeg on Tuesday, as it was Eric Comrie that helped the team earn a victory last time out. Carter Hart will start in goal for the Flyers. According to my model, the Jets should be priced somewhere around -150, and therefore, I don’t have any interest in this game from a betting perspective.

Ottawa Senators (+ 200) at New York Islanders (-240)

Ottawa got the job done against the Oilers on Monday with a 3-2 overtime win, but bettors shouldn’t expect much from the Senators on the second half of a back-to-back, given that they’re missing Drake Batherson, Josh Norris and Connor Brown. The Islanders have shown that they can defeat weak teams, especially those in vulnerable positions, but according to my model, the price shouldn’t be any higher than what it is currently.

Vancouver Canucks (+ 150) at Nashville Predators (-170)

It will probably be Juuse Saros against Thatcher Demko on Tuesday when the Predators host the Canucks. Vancouver played on Monday in Chicago and picked up a win 3-1 over the Blackhawks. Jaroslav Halak was in goal. The Predators have had four days off and won't play again until after the break. The Predators have been spotty as of late, but according to my model, they should be priced around -175, and that means I'll consider laying the favorite if the price dips closer to -160 across the board.

Calgary Flames (-120) at Dallas Stars (+ 100)

There’s a simple explanation as to why I don’t have any interest in this game, as it is currently priced. Just a couple of days ago, I recommended laying -120 on the Bruins, and that didn’t work out so well. The Flames aren’t as good as the Bruins, at least according to my model, and therefore, there’s no value in laying a similar price on them to defeat the Stars in Dallas.

Arizona Coyotes (+ 425) at Colorado Avalanche (-550)

No Nathan MacKinnon, although head coach Jared Bednar did say that the forward is feeling better. The Avalanche should still be priced somewhere between -500 and -600 depending on who starts in goal, though. Scott Wedgewood will start in goal for the Coyotes.

Buffalo Sabres (+ 360) at Vegas Golden Knights (-440)

Jack Eichel’s former team is in town, but he’ll be watching from the press box, as he isn’t set to make his debut until sometime after the All-Star Game. Zach Whitecloud and Nicolas Hague will likely be watching with him, as they are listed as day-to-day. However, Chandler Stephenson and Dylan Coghlan won’t be around the team, as both are in COVID protocol. There’s a chance that Alec Martinez could make his return to the lineup, which would give Vegas some much needed help on the blue line, but I haven’t pencilled him in. The Golden Knights aren’t at full strength, but the Sabres are playing their third game in four days and there’s nothing egregious about how the game is currently priced.

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Florida Panthers -155

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended play prop bets currently.

 

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