NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 1/25

January 25, 2022 09:01 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Monday, Jan. 24th

The Flames surrendered an early goal when the Blues opened the scoring about five minutes into the game, but Calgary turned it around and scored seven unanswered goals to win the game 7-1. It was never a sweat. It was a decent size bet for me at -145 and -150, but by the time I published the report, the line had moved to -155. Therefore, it only ended up being recorded as a small, half-size wager, and the profit reflects that.

The last month has been a rollercoaster ride, more so than the rest of the season. Coming out of the break, I won 11 out of 13 wagers before losing 11 out of the next 14 bets that I made. Over the last week and change, though, I’ve won eight of 10 bets. Hopefully things continue to trend in the right direction.

Record: 69-59, + 3.75 units, 3 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, Jan. 25th

There are eight games scheduled for Tuesday, and so far, I’ve made just one bet on a road favorite that I believe is mispriced.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Buffalo Sabres (+ 155) at Ottawa Senators (-175)

This is a rematch from about a week ago. The Sabres had just played the night before, and they had to travel to Ottawa to take on the Senators. Buffalo won the game 3-1. That put an end to the Senators’ two-game win streak, who embarked on a three-game road trip following the loss. Ottawa lost two out of those three games and are now playing their third game in four days. Buffalo, meanwhile, has had two days off. There’s a little bit of value on the Sabres, as my model prices this game around -150 in favor of the Senators, but there’s not quite enough to incentivize me to bet on Aaron Dell.

Dallas Stars (-135) at New Jersey Devils (+ 115)

Dallas squeaked by the Flyers in Philadelphia on Monday, as the game was tied 1-1 until the final minutes, when Dallas potted a go-ahead goal and an empty-net goal to win 3-1. Jake Oettinger was in goal, which means Braden Holtby will likely get the start in goal on Tuesday. New Jersey isn’t a good hockey team, and they don’t have a good goaltender. The Devils almost at full strength, but they’re still missing one big piece in Dougie Hamilton. According to my model, there’s nothing egregious about how this game has been priced, and therefore, it doesn’t look like I’ll be taking a position on either side.

Vegas Golden Knights (+ 165) at Carolina Hurricanes (-185)

Somehow the Golden Knights managed to defeat the Washington Capitals by a score of 1-0 on Monday. Robin Lehner was in goal for the shutout. Normally, I’d expect Laurent Brossoit to start in goal, but because he’s working his way back from an injury, I’m not so sure. There’s a chance that Vegas could go back to Robin Lehner, but Brossoit and Logan Thompson are also options. Max Pacioretty and Alec Martinez are expected to return to the Vegas lineup during this four-game road trip, but it’s unclear when that will happen. If Pacioretty and Martinez don’t make their way back into the lineup ahead of Tuesday’s game, the Hurricanes should be priced somewhere between -170 and -200, depending on who is in goal for the Golden Knights.

Notes: Reilly Smith was added to the COVID list shortly before Monday’s game in Washington. He is not expected to play on Tuesday. Mark Stone is still in COVID protocol as well. Carolina forward Teuvo Teravainen suffered an injury over the weekend, but it is not believed to be serious. I haven’t ruled him out for this game yet.

Arizona Coyotes (+ 340) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-440)

Not a whole lot to say here besides sharing that my model prices the game around -420 in favor of the Penguins. Pittsburgh is playing their fourth game in six days, and the Coyotes have had some time off to rest. Arbitrarily, I’d love to bet on the Pens to cover the puck line, or win in regulation, because they probably will do both, but my model keeps me honest.

Philadelphia Flyers (+ 190) at New York Islanders (-220)

Philadelphia has lost 12 in a row, and they’re dealing with injuries to key players like Sean Couturier, Kevin Hayes and Ryan Ellis, and they’re also missing several depth players. On Tuesday, they’re playing their sixth game in nine days. It’s also the second half of a back-to-back (they lost 3-1 to Dallas on Monday) and the Islanders have had two days off. New York isn’t a good hockey team, though. They used to be, and maybe they can figure it out between now and the end of the season, but I’d have to fudge the numbers to justify betting on the Islanders at -220. According to my model, New York is priced as they should be, and therefore, I don’t have a lot of interest in this game.

Notes: Martin Jones is expected to start for the Flyers.

Florida Panthers (-165) at Winnipeg Jets (+ 145)

The Jets are back in Winnipeg after an eight-game road trip having lost four in a row. Nikolaj Ehlers will not be in the lineup until further notice, and the Panthers are looking to bounce back after being upset in Seattle. However, it would be an understatement to say The Panthers haven’t been as good on the road (7-6-5) as they have been at home (21-3), and the Jets have also been much better on home ice. Florida is obviously the superior team here, but both teams are playing tired, and there’s no guarantee that Sergei Bobrovsky will start on Tuesday. The Panthers have a date with the Golden Knights back in Florida on Thursday, so there’s a chance that Spencer Knight could get the start against the Jets in Winnipeg. If Bobrovsky was a lock to be between the pipes, I would have been fine laying -155 and -160, but I decided not to do that because I don’t think laying the chalk is a good idea if Knight is in the crease.

Nashville Predators (-160) at Seattle Kraken (+ 140)

Nashville has been off for two days, and Juuse Saros is expected to get the start.  The Predators have been good on the road all season, and the Kraken have little to no home-ice advantage. Seattle has a losing record on home ice, but more importantly, the team has played eight of 11 games at home since returning from the break and they were outscored in six of them. Their underlying numbers are trash, too. Nashville should control most of the shot attempts and scoring chances on Tuesday, and according to my model, the Predators should be priced between -175 and -180 depending on what the Kraken lineup looks like. Nashville forward Eeli Tolvanen is out due to COVID, but Seattle will be without forward Jaden Schwartz and defender Jamie Oleksiak. There’s a chance that the latter could play, as he is listed as day-to-day, but that won’t move the needle all that much in Seattle’s direction. I recommend laying the favorite up to -165.

Pick:

Nashville Predators -165

Edmonton Oilers (-130) at Vancouver Canucks (+ 110) 

Edmonton finally picked up a win, even though they were badly outplayed by the Flames, and it came at my expense. Now, they're in Vancouver to take on the Canucks. The Canucks are missing three key forwards (Bo Horvat, J.T. Miller and Connor Garland) and three goaltenders (Thatcher Demko, Jaroslav Halak and Spencer Martin) due to COVID. Edmonton is in a good position to win the game, but according to my model, they shouldn't be priced any higher than -130.

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Nashville Predators -165

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended play prop bets currently.

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