NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 1/18

January 18, 2022 08:52 AM
USATSI_17375516

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Monday, Jan. 17th

The Predators were a late add on the moneyline at + 110 or better, and they dominated the first period and led 2-0 for a brief time. Then the wheels fell off, as the Blues scored five and won the game 5-3.

Record: 62-58, -1.42 units, -1.2 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -109

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, Jan. 18th

There are eight games scheduled Tuesday, and I've made two early bets. Those are the only games I'm going to cover for the time being.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Winnipeg Jets (+ 100) at Washington Capitals (-120)

Due to an early line move in the road team’s direction, there’s now value on the Capitals moneyline. Sportsbooks opened the game with Washington listed at -135 and the Jets listed at + 115, but now bettors can lay -120 or better on the Capitals to win the game straight up. The Capitals will be without John Carlson, T.J. Oshie and Connor Sheary, but the Jets are also shorthanded, as Blake Wheeler, Paul Stastny and Brendan Dillon are all expected to miss the game as well. According to my model, the Capitals were priced correctly when the game opened at -135. The Capitals are the superior team on offense and defense, and although the Jets will have an edge in goaltending with Connor Hellebuyck in goal, the Capitals have home ice advantage, and the market is selling them short.

Notes: Connor Hellebuyck will start in goal for the Jets. Vitek Vanacek is expected to start in goal for the Capitals.

Pick:

Washington Capitals -120

Florida Panthers (-150) at Calgary Flames (+ 130)

I don’t like betting against the Florida Panthers, but I haven’t had much luck betting on them, either, but the Flames should not be priced at + 130 on home ice. Calgary has stumbled recently, and the Panthers have been rolling over teams, including the Flames, as of late, but I’m taking a small position on the home underdog at + 130 or better. The Flames grade out as one of the best teams in the league in terms of expected goals, shot attempts and scoring, but they haven’t had much luck against top-tier teams like the Panthers. My model estimates that the Panthers will win the game approximately 55 percent of the time, which means they should be priced closer to -120. Both teams are rested, but the Flames have had more time off, and unlike the Panthers, they’ve been home for a couple of weeks and haven’t been travelling. Both teams are healthy, and although this is a bet that will lose more often than it will win, it’s a value bet and I’m comfortable taking a chance with the Flames.

Notes: Jacob Markstrom has been confirmed as the Flames' starting goaltender. Sergei Bobrovsky is expected to start for the Panthers.

Update: Spencer Knights will start in goal for the Panthers. The game line had moved to + 135 and I am adding to my position.

Pick:

Calgary Flames + 130 (half size) and 135 (half size)

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Washington Capitals -120

Calgary Flames + 130 (half size) and 135 (half size)

Player Prop Bets for Tuesday, Jan. 18th:

Record: 113-111, -11.5 units, -4.3 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -108

Alex Iafallo Under 0.5 Points -110, Viktor Arvidsson Under 0.5 Points -105, Anze Kopitar Under 0.5 Points + 135 (DraftKings)

The Kings are facing one of their toughest tests of the season, as the Lightning are expected to win about 66 percent of the time, and the total is relatively low. In fact, according to the betting line, the Kings should score less than three goals on average. The Propagator prices these props at -150, -140 and -110, so there is quite a bit of value on each.

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

College Lines Revealed: Don't be afraid to keep betting on undervalued teams until the market adjusts. Ex: Kansas, UNLV

The Lombardi Line: In the 48 NFL games played so far this season, 18 have been decided by 3 points or fewer. Key numbers are crucial when betting pro football.

View tips for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Amal Shah: Iowa (+10) vs. Michigan

Mitch Moss: Washington (-1) at UCLA

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-09-26_at_9.44.58_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close