NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 11.23

November 23, 2021 08:46 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Sunday, Nov. 21st

The Ducks (+ 130) lost 3-2, and player prop bets went 1-1 and broke even. I do want to note that bets on game lines in the month of November have been slightly profitable. I’m not where I want to be, but I’m not dwelling on the bad luck that I experienced in October. It’s all about moving forward, and that’s what I’ll continue to do.

Game Lines:

23-26, -6.2 units, -12.3 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -104

Player Props: 

72-69, -8.9 units, -5.20 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -111

Market Report for Monday, Nov. 22nd

It’s a weird week because the NHL doesn’t have any games scheduled on Thanksgiving, so there are only three games on Tuesday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Philadelphia Flyers (+ 140) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-160)

The Lightning picked up a come-from-behind shootout win over the Flyers in Philadelphia just last week, and now the two teams will meet up again in Tampa Bay. I think we’ll probably see Andrei Vasilevskiy and Carter Hart face off against each other again on Tuesday. However, the Flyers do play again on Wednesday against the Panthers, which makes it tougher to predict which goaltender they’re going to start in each game. Brayden Point is listed as being out indefinitely, and there are no specifics about his injury. However, the Flyers aren’t at full strength, either, as Kevin Hayes re-injured himself and is listed as week-to-week along with defender Ryan Ellis. Hart has been fantastic so far this season, and if he starts, I believe there could be some value in taking the Flyers around + 155, but I don’t think there would be any value in betting + 140. The Lightning are still a strong team, even without Points and Nikita Kucherov, and I want to make sure I’m getting the best of it anytime I choose to bet against them.

Update: Carter Hart and Andrei Vasilevskiy will start in goal. From a betting perspective, I'm curious to see where the line goes. It's Flyers, or nothing, but unless the consensus price moves 10 cents from + 145 to + 155, I don't know that I'll be interested.

Edmonton Oilers (-105) at Dallas Stars (-115)

Braden Holtby was back at practice on Monday, but the Stars have been running with Anton Khudobin and Jake Oettinger while he was sidelined, and now it’s hard to predict which goaltender will start on Tuesday. The Stars give themselves the best chance to win with Oettinger in goal, but their odds of winning the game will take a hit if it’s Holtby or Khudobin. The Oilers also have a big decision to make, as Stuart Skinner appears to be their strongest option in goal, but they must take on the Coyotes on Wednesday, and according to the head coach, Mikko Koskinen will likely get one of those starts. Defender Darnell Nurse is going to miss some time, and that will hurt the team, but if they can make up for that with above average goaltending, the Oilers shouldn’t miss a beat.

Edmonton has scored roughly 56 percent of the goals in all situations, while the Stars have only owned about a 46 percent share. The two teams both have generated slightly more expected goals for then against, according to Evolving Hockey, so some would look at the Stars and label them as unlucky. That’s a reasonable conclusion to come too, but I do think we have to look at the rosters, and the insane talent that the Oilers have at their disposal. The Stars are unlucky, but their lack of high-end talent is a big reason why. This is an intriguing game, from a betting perspective, but there’s too much uncertainty regarding the starting goaltenders.

Update: Stuart Skinner and Jake Oettinger are confirmed to start in goal for the Oilers. I make Edmonton a small favorite, and therefore, I did take a position on them earlier at + 105. That number was not widely available, though, and moved shortly after I bet it. I would not recommend laying -105 on the Oilers, which is the current consensus price, but I don't think the Oilers are a bad bet at + 100, which is available at some shops.

Chicago Blackhawks (+ 190) at Calgary Flames (-220)

Calgary has finally returned home after a long road trip, but it should be noted that this will be the third game in four days, and fourth in six, for the Flames. The Blackhawks are also playing their third game in four nights after losing to Edmonton on Saturday and winning in Vancouver on Sunday. The Flames have three rest days after this game, and Daniel Vladar started the last game, which means we’ll probably see Jacob Markstrom in goal on Tuesday.

The Blackhawks will probably go back to Marc-Andre Fleury, who has been slowly turning his season around. In his last four games, Fleury has saved the team approximately 6.5 goals above expected, according to Evolving Hockey. We can’t forget about his early season struggles, and we must take it all into account, but Fleury’s play as of late is a sign that things could be turning around for the veteran goaltender.

Calgary is the far superior team, but according to my model, they should not be priced any higher than -220. In other words, it doesn’t look like I’ll be taking a side in this game, but something could change.

Update: Marc-Andre Fleury and Jacob Markstrom will be the starting goaltenders on Tuesday.

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Late Adds:

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