NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 1/11

January 11, 2022 09:18 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Monday, Jan. 10th

There were no recommended bets on Monday.

Record: 59-51, + 3 units, 2.9 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -109

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Tuesday, Jan. 11th

There are just seven games on Tuesday, due to postponements. Also, it appears that is not updating properly, so I’ll be using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook for the time being.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Vancouver Canucks (+ 175) at Florida Panthers (-205)

The Panthers have been rolling since coming out of the break. They’ve won five of six since Dec. 29th and have scored at least four goals in every game. Sam Bennett and Sam Reinhart are expected to be back in the lineup as this game will kick off three straight games at home for the Panthers. The Canucks, meanwhile, are kicking off another road trip, which will see them play some of the best teams in the league (Tampa Bay, Carolina, Washington and Nashville) over the next week. Vancouver haven’t played since New Year’s Day, which typically does more harm than good. I’ve been waiting for a spot to fade the Canucks since Bruce Boudreau took over, but the prices haven’t been generous enough. According to my model, the Panthers should be priced around -220, but I have a slightly bigger edge on the puck line. Bet the Panthers to cover win by at least two goals and cover the -1.5 puck line at + 105 or better.

Update: Thatcher Demko will start in goal for the Canucks. Sergei Bobrovsky is expected to start in goal for the Panthers.

Pick:

Florida Panthers Puck Line -1.5, + 105 (half size)

Chicago Blackhawks (-110) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-110)

Elvis Merzlikins is listed as day-to-day with a lower-body injury. However, reports ahead of Saturday’s game against the Devils suggested that he was improving, which means he’ll be back in the lineup soon, but I expect to see Jonas Korpisalo in goal again on Tuesday. Marc-Andre Fleury is expected to start for the Blackhawks, who are coming off a big win over the Vegas Golden Knights, but I wouldn’t let Chicago’s performance on Saturday sway your opinion of the team all that much, if at all. This is still below-average hockey team.  Of course, the Blue Jackets are also a below-average team, but they’re average on offense. Columbus wouldn’t be a good bet at -110 if Korpisalo is in the crease, but if Merzlikins can play, I would lay a small bet on them at -110 or better.

Update: Seth Jones will not be in the Chicago lineup on Tuesday after being placed in COVID protocol. Marc-Andre Fleury will be in the crease for the Blackhawks. Jonas Korpisalo will start in goal for the Blues Jackets.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-250) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 210)

Now that the Lightning have Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point back in the lineup, it’s going to be tough to find value on them in games like this. They’re on the road, without a couple of useful players due to injury, and there’s no telling when Brian Elliott will get another start. In other words, there’s far too much uncertainty surrounding this game to confidently price it. The Lightning will return home to host the Canucks on Thursday, and Jon Cooper might opt to rest his starter for that game. Otherwise, Elliott could be sitting for almost three weeks by the time they have another opportunity to start him in a game.

The Sabres are hurting, as Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, Kyle Okposo and Peyton Krebs are all in COVID protocol. That leaves a couple of big holes in the lineup, and it’s tough to see the Sabres picking up a win a Tuesday, no matter who is in goal for the Lightning. If Vasilevskiy starts, the Lightning’s odds are fair, but if Elliott gets the nod, the line is too high. However, I won’t be taking the dog, though, as + 210 only borders on being a value play. It doesn’t meet the threshold.

Update: Andrei Vasilevskiy and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will be the starting goaltenders. 

Colorado Avalanche (-155) at Nashville Predators (+ 135)

Colorado is coming off another win in which they had to battle back from a multi-goal deficit. It’s great that they have the offense to pull off comebacks, but they’re giving up a lot more defensively in 2021-22 than they have in previous years. Darcy Kuemper is expected to get the start in goal on Tuesday after Pavel Francouz picked up the win on Monday. I was hoping to see this game open with the Predators listed at + 140 or better, as my model prices this game around -130 in favor of the Avalanche. There’s not enough value at + 135 to justify betting against the best team in the league, even though they’re on the second half of a back-to-back. If the line moves in the direction of the road team, for some unwarranted reason, I will place a small bet on the Predators at + 140 or better, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.

Notes: Preds’ forward Filip Forsberg is out due to COVID, and so is Avalanche forward Gabriel Landeskog. Juuse Saros is expected to start in goal for the Predators.

Pittsburgh Penguins (-165) at Anaheim Ducks (+ 145)

Evgeny Malkin will be a game-time decision on Tuesday, but the market has already decided that he will play, as the Penguins have been bet up to -165 from -145. The Penguins have had two days off since there 11-game win streak was snapped in Dallas, and Tristan Jarry is expected to start in goal. There’s not a lot to talk about now that the line has moved so much, though, as my model prices the Penguins around -160, assuming Malkin does play, and therefore, it doesn’t look like I’ll be taking the dog or laying the favorite in this game.

Notes: Bryan Rust will not play for the Penguins, and Anaheim is still missing Adam Henrique, Hampus Lindholm and goaltender John Gibson. Danton Heinen and Zach Aston-Reese have been placed in COVID protocol and will not play on Tuesday. Malkin will return to the Penguins' lineup.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-125) at Vegas Golden Knights (+ 105)

Due to some heavy steam on the Maple Leafs earlier this morning, I was able to take the Vegas Golden Knights as home dogs (+ 112 average price) and that makes betting against the Maple Leafs a lot more tolerable. I mean, I would’ve been willing to lay chalk, but I was able get down a full bet, and then some, at plus money. I do think taking Vegas at + 105 is a value play, though, and I would recommend doing so. The Golden Knights don’t have Max Pacioretty, and there’s not a lot separating these two teams. However, the Maple Leafs don’t have Mitch Marner and the Golden Knights should be priced as a small favorite.

It’s tough to gauge how good Vegas is, and Toronto does have an edge in goal, but these teams are evenly matched, but due to home ice advantage, the price is short. The Golden Knights have also been playing a lot better at even strength over the last month, and although the absence of Pacioretty means that their offense isn’t as threatening as it could be, the team’s underlying metrics don’t do them justice. This is a bet that I expect to win a little more than 50 percent of the time.

Update: Jack Campbell will start in goal for Toronto. 

Pick:

Vegas Golden Knights + 105

Detroit Red Wings (+ 115) at San Jose Sharks (-135)

I’m looking for opportunities to fade the Red Wings, because I believe they’re a bad hockey team, and the market shows them too much love on a game-to-game basis. However, the Sharks have been playing poorly as of late, and Logan Couture still hasn’t cleared COVID protocol. He could be cleared ahead of Tuesday’s game, but there are no guarantees. James Reimer is also still listed as day-to-day, with a lower-body injury. Erik Karlsson is expected to return to the lineup, but the Sharks’ depth has taken a hit due to injuries and illness. According to my model, the Sharks should be priced around -140, but since they’re currently listed at -135, I’m not incentivized to bet on them.

Update: Adin Hill will start in goal for the Sharks. Dylan Larkin will not play for the Red Wings. Tyler Bertuzzi is in the lineup. I am laying the Sharks at -145 or better, even though I'm not in love with it. It's + EV.

Pick:

San Jose Sharks -140

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Vegas Golden Knights + 105

Late Adds:

San Jose Sharks -140

Florida Panthers Puck Line -1.5, + 105 (half size)

Player Prop Bets for Sunday, Jan. 9th:

Record: 107-106, -13.25 units, -5.2 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -108

Trevor Zegras Under 0.5 Points + 105, Rikard Rakell Under 0.5 Points -115 (DraftKings)

Zegras and Rakell play on the second line together, and they also play on the top power play unit, but the Penguins are strong opponent that should dictate the pace of the game. They won't give the Ducks much, and Anaheim will likely be playing on their heels for most of the game. Zegras is a great player, and he has 27 points in 32 games. However, he's gone pointless in more than 50 percent of his games and the Propagator estimates that he'll only record a point about 44 percent of the time, which means under should be priced around -127. Rakell, on the other hand, only has 16 points in 28 games, and also has gone pointless more than 50 percent of the time. If Zegras doesn't find the scoresheet, Rakell probably won't either, and the Propagator prices the under closer to -150.

Rasmus Dahlin Under 0.5 Points + 100 (DraftKings)

Dahlin has been having a great season, with 22 points in 34 games, but the Sabres probably won't be generating much offense against the Lightning, and the Propagator estimates that the under should be priced closer to -165.

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