NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday, 10/26

October 26, 2021 10:18 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Monday, Oct. 25th

Tyler Seguin scored a meaningless goal in the final minutes and Victor Olofsson fired his third shot of the game into an empty net. And just like that, what would have been a 5-1 night, turned into 3-3 night and a little bit of a blow to the bankroll.

Game Lines: 7-10, -4.05 units, -19.9 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -108

Player Props: 35-27, + 2.60 units, 3.3 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -117

Overall: 42-37, -1.45 units, -1.47 percent ROI

Market Report for Tuesday, Oct. 26th

 Player props will be added later today. And don’t forget to tune into the NHL betting live stream today at 4 p.m. ET on VSiN Live’s YouTube channel with special guests Josh Applebaum and fantasy hockey expert Michael Clifford.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Tampa Bay Lightning (-130) at Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 110)

Brian Elliott took the loss in Buffalo on Monday. The Lightning will probably do a lot more losing when he’s in goal. Andrei Vasilevskiy will be in the starter’s crease on Tuesday in Pittsburgh, though. The Penguins are coming off another big win, but this is a depleted lineup. Not only are Bryan Rust is out week-to-week, but now Jeff Carter and Kris Letang have tested positive for COVID and will likely miss additional time after missing Saturday’s game. Sidney Crosby is practicing with the team, but it’s still unclear when exactly he will return. The Lightning haven’t been good, but they still deserve to be the favorite here, all things considered. However, I won’t be laying the favorite unless the line comes down 10-15 cents from where it is now.

Calgary Flames (-105) at New Jersey Devils (-115)

From the very start of the season, it appeared as if the Flames had carried over their strong underlying numbers from last season, but they weren’t quite putting it all together. However, the Flames have blossomed on this road trip, with great team defense and excellent transition game. I think there’s a chance that Markstrom could get another start, because he had a few days off before playing in New York on Monday.

New Jersey, on the other hand, is a difficult team to handicap, given that both of their starting goaltenders, and their best forward, Jack Hughes, are out with injuries. Youngster Nico Daws could get the start on Monday. I am interested in backing the road team on Tuesday, but I don’t necessarily think I’ll be getting the best of it at -105. I also think the line could move towards the Devils if Daniel Vladar is in goal, but that wouldn’t deter me. I just don’t want to be left with a bad price if that happens.

Player Prop:

Nico Hischier Under 1.5 Shots + 170 (DraftKings)

Nico Hischier Under 0.5 Points -120 (BetMGM)

Matthew Tkachuk Over 2.5 Shots + 105 (DraftKings)

Hischier has been elevated to a top line role with Jack Hughes out, and that doesn't always lead to more offense. Hischier is a good player, but he doesn't produce at the level that the odds imply. He's also gone under 1.5 shots in two out of four games.

The Propagator estimates that Hischier will get two more shots about 53 percent of the time, so although it's a bet that will lose more often than not, there's value in betting him to register less than two shots at + 170. Betting on Hischier not to score a point is also a good bet at -120, but the edge isn't as big.

The Flames are deep, and the Devils will have a lot to worry about. Intuitively, I think this could open things up for the top line as the second and third forward lines have been garnering all of the attention as of late. According to the Propagator, Tkachuk will register three or more shots approximately 54.5 percent of the time, which means the over should be priced at -120, not + 105.

Vegas Golden Knights (+ 155) at Colorado Avalanche (-175)

If the Golden Knights had Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty, this would be an easy bet to make, but they don’t. And they’re also missing Alec Martinez, Zach Whitecloud and Nolan Patrick. The Avalanche are shorthanded, but at least they’ve got all their stars. By my estimation, a fair line for this game is just shy of -160, which is what you’ll get if you remove the juice from the betting line. I guess there could be a situation where the line continues to climb, and I end up taking the dog, but it seems unlikely that it will get to that point.

Player Prop:

Alex Pietrangelo Under 0.5 Points (DraftKings)

Pietrangelo is pointless so far this season, but because of his prominent role on the team, this prop is always shaded to the over. This game could open up, and Pietrangelo could finally break out, but this would still be a value bet given that the Propagator estimates he'll only register a point about 38 percent of the time on Tuesday. In other words, the under should be priced closer to -160.

San Jose Sharks (+ 115) at Nashville Predators (-135)

Both teams should be a little worn out on Tuesday. San Jose is playing their fourth game in six days while the Predators are playing their third in four days. Nashville’s Juuse Saros did have a day off to reset, though. There isn’t much separating the Sharks and Predators, and I think the Predators’ odds should be closer to -115. Therefore, assuming Adin Hill starts in goal for the Sharks, I would start to consider taking the dog if the price climbs north of + 120.

Player Prop:

Mattias Ekholm Over 1.5 Shots -145 (DraftKings)

Logan Couture Over 1.5 Shots -150 (DraftKings) 

Ekholm has gone over this total in four out of five games, and the Propagator estimates that he will do it again on Tuesday about 67 percent of the time. In other words, the over should be priced at around -200. Couture has also gone over 1.5 shots in four out of five games and, according to the Propagator, the over should be priced at about -185. Not quite as big of an edge as the Ekholm prop, but a decent value bet nonetheless. 

Minnesota Wild (-120) at Vancouver Canucks (+ 100)

If I knew Thatcher Demko would be starter’s crease on Tuesday, I’d have no problem taking the home dog, but I don’t. If I was head coach Travis Green, I would start Demko in goal against the Wild and hope that Jaroslav Halak can handle the Flyers on the Thursday. The Canucks have a date with the Oilers on Saturday, so it seems likely that they’ll want to get their best goaltender a little rest this week. However, I’m very confident that Demko will get the start as this is the Canucks’ home opener. In fact, I would be shocked if Halak is in the crease on Tuesday.


Vancouver Canucks + 100

Montreal Canadiens (+ 105) at Seattle Kraken (-125)

Seattle will get another chance to earn their first win at home on Tuesday when the Canadiens come to town, but -125 is an incredibly steep price to pay for a team that has a 34 percent goal share at five-on-five. Getting away from Montreal should benefit the Canadiens after their slow start but + 105 is a hard pass. According to my model, a fair line for this game is about -115 in favor of the Kraken.

Winnipeg Jets (-130) at Anaheim Ducks (+ 110)

Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele (COVID) are out, but the Jets are still priced close to where they were during their last trip to Anaheim. That shouldn’t sit right with any bettor, but it doesn’t mean that I see value in betting on the home dog. The line has come down a bit since opening, but it’ll have to come to -120 before I take the road favorite. The Jets secondary scoring has really come alive in the wake of losing two of their top forwards, but I don’t want to reach here either. And the fact that Jets’ goaltender Connor Hellebuyck hasn’t gotten a game off yet concerns me because Paul Maurice could choose to go with the backup at some point on this trip through California.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Vancouver Canucks + 100

Late Adds:

Alex Pietrangelo Under 0.5 Points (DraftKings)

Matthew Tkachuk Over 2.5 Shots + 105 (DraftKings)

Nico Hischier Under 1.5 Shots + 170 (DraftKings)

Nico Hischier Under 0.5 Points -120 (BetMGM)

Mattias Ekholm Over 1.5 Shots -145 (DraftKings)

Logan Couture Over 1.5 Shots -150 (DraftKings)

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