NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 10/19

By Andy MacNeil  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_12125664

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator and Follow me on Twitter.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

Market Report Recap for Monday Oct. 18th

Monday was another strong night for player props. And the Blues got the win over the Coyotes. I also won a wager on the Rangers (overtime winner) thanks to Igor Shesterkin’s strong play, but that didn’t make it onto the report in time, so it won’t be included in my record.

Records 

Game Lines: 3-7, -4.6 units, -39.0 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -103

Player Props: 21-14, + 4.00 units, 9.1 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -115

Overall: 24-21, -0.6 units, -1.1 percent ROI

Market Report for Tuesday, Oct. 19

There's a lot to touch on today, and not a lot of time for pleasantries. We'll get to player props a little later, but for now, let's focus on game lines:

Dallas Stars (+ 110) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-130)

Look, I’m not sure what to make of this Penguins team, and the Stars don’t look to be in good form, either. But I’m not going to lay -135 to find out. Sidney Crosby is going to miss another game, and Bryan Rust is week-to-week. Dallas has looked awful through three games, and John Klingberg could miss his third straight, so there’s no value in taking the dog at + 115.

San Jose Sharks (+ 130) at Montreal Canadiens (-150)

Montreal doesn’t look anything like the team that went to the Stanley Cup Final and that’s because they’re not. The team has a bright future, but it sure looks like they’re going to take a step back before they take a step forward. Adin Hill gives the Sharks a bit of a new look, but I’m going to need better than + 130 to get involved here because this is still a bad hockey team.

Seattle Kraken (+ 125) at New Jersey Devils (-145)

Seattle played Monday in Philadelphia, if you want to call it that. Whatever they did, it made the Flyers look like world-beaters. I’m not particularly high on the Devils (although that could change) but I don’t think there’s enough incentive to bet on the Kraken to bounce back at + 125.

Vancouver Canucks (-160) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 140)

Unfortunately, the game line moved a lot since open, so there isn’t much value left. Not enough to warrant a play, anyway. The Sabres are down a couple of bodies and goaltending is going to be an issue for this team on most nights. I really like what I’ve seen from the Canucks (and their new additions) so far, and I think there’s a good chance they put it all together on Tuesday, especially if Brock Boeser returns to the lineup.

Florida Panthers (+ 105) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-125)

Nikita Kucherov is out with an injury, and it looks like he could miss a lot of time. He may even need surgery according to reports. This levels the playing field between the Lightning and Panthers, but not enough that I’m willing to take the dog here as I estimate the Lightning will win approximately 53.5 percent of the time or -115. There was an early move on the Panthers when the market opened Monday afternoon, but that value has disappeared.

Colorado Avalanche (-105) at Washington Capitals (-115)

Nathan MacKinnon tested negative for COVID and is on a plane to DC. The Avalanche are still without their captain, Gabriel Landeskog, and a few other key players, but the return of MacKinnon moves the needle a lot. No much else to say here. This one will probably move quick. Bet Colorado at (-110 or better).

Pick:

Colorado Avalanche -105

Columbus Blue Jackets (-115) at Detroit Red Wings (-105)

Two teams that I don’t think very much of. This game is a coinflip and winning a bet on it will probably be nothing more than a consequence of luck. The price could shift a little, depending on who starts in goal, but I doubt it will be enough to warrant any kind of action from me.

Winnipeg Jets (+ 130) at Minnesota Wild (-150)

Blake Wheeler’s status for Tuesday’s game against the Wild is up in the air as the winger was in COVID protocol on Monday and missed practice. I’ll want to know if Wheeler is playing before making a move on this game, but it’s Jets or nothing here, and I hope that I can take + 130 or better later in the day when there’s more information available.

Los Angeles Kings (+ 120) at Nashville Predators (-140)

Los Angeles is a team that I am hopeful for, and I wish that I could justify betting on them here, because I don’t think Predators are a very good team, however, it’s probably not going to happen. Maybe in a month’s time I’ll be able to analyze both rosters and conclude that yes, the Kings are in fact a much better team than the Predators, but that’s not the case right now. It’s Kings or nothing, though, assuming Cal Petersen starts. You don’t want to bet on Jonathan Quick versus Juuse Saros at + 120.

New York Islanders (-120) at Chicago Blackhawks (-100)

The Islanders have not looked good, but we’ve seen a lot out of this team over the last couple of years and a bounce back should be right around the corner. This line appears to be an overreaction and I’m going to try take advantage. Chicago is off to a tough start, and their problems don’t look easy to fix. This a great spot for the Islanders to find their game.

Pick:

New York Islanders -120

Player Prop:

Seth Jones Under 0.5 Points -135 (BetMGM)

Jones has two points in three games (both assists) but the Islanders should be able to neutralize the Blackhawks' attack and the fact that they don't typically take a lot of penalties means that Jones probably won't see as much power play time as he usually does.

Anaheim Ducks (+ 235) at Edmonton Oilers (-275)

Anaheim played on Monday in Calgary and picked up a thrilling overtime victory. Tuesday is a different story, though, as the Ducks will be matched up against Connor McDavid and the Oilers in Edmonton. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ducks went back to Gibson here after a strong performance Monday night. If that’s the case, I think the line is fair.

Player Prop:

Derek Ryan Under 0.5 Points -185 (DraftKings)

Ryan is a third-line center that doesn't play on the power play. This prop should be priced closer to -285, according to the Propagator.

Summary

Early Bets:

Colorado Avalanche -105

New York Islanders -120

Derek Ryan Under 0.5 Points -185 (DraftKings)

Seth Jones Under 0.5 Points -135 (BetMGM)

Late Adds:

Tune into the NHL betting show today at 4:3O PM ET / 1:30 PT live on the VSiN YouTube with guest Dom Luszcyszyn from The Athletic. This is your first chance to check out Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

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