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Market Report for Tuesday, Oct. 18th
Recap: Monday was an unusually hectic start to the week but getting on top of things early paid off. Both big bets (Los Angeles and Boston) won, but unfortunately, the small bet on the Jets was a loser.
Wins: 10 Losses: 6 Units Won: plus-2.56 units ROI: 16.8 percent
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Today: A busier than normal Monday means Tuesday is quieter than usual.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake.
Vancouver Canucks (EVEN) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-110)
It’s hard to put into word just how bad the Canucks’ start has been. Vancouver led 4-2 in Washington on Monday but lost 6-4. It was the third time in three games that they had a multi-goal lead and blew it. Bruce Boudreau’s team could easily be 3-0, but they’re 0-3, and according to him, it’s because they’re mentally weak. They’re playing a beatable team on Tuesday, but they’re tired, and they still must travel to Minnesota to play the Canucks on Thursday before they head home.
Columbus hasn’t managed to win a game yet, either, which is no surprise. The Blue Jackets probably won’t win very many games this season, and Patrick Laine, the team’s most important player next to Johnny Gaudreau, is week-to-week with an injury. Elvis Merzlikins is expected to be the starting goaltender, while backup Spencer Martin will likely make his first start of the season for the Canucks. No bet.
Boston Bruins (Even) at Ottawa Senators (-120)
Boston is playing tired after taking down the Florida Panthers on Monday, but they still should win Tuesday’s game more often than the Senators. The Bruins have owned the competition (65 percent expected goals at 5-on-5) through their first three games, and early signs suggests this team is heading in the right direction.
Ottawa hasn’t won a game yet, and their newly signed starting goaltender, Cam Talbot, is on the shelf with an injury to start the season, and my model lists their chances of beating the Bruins at around 47 percent. In other words, Boston should be priced somewhere between -110 and -115 with Jeremy Swayman rested and ready to guard the cage.
Bet: Boston Bruins EVEN Stake: 1.25 units to win 1.25 units
Comment: I don't really get the move on the Bruins, who can now be found anywhere from plus-105 to plus-115, even better. I mean, I get it, but I don't 'get' it. It sucks to get the worst of the number, but if you're betting the Senators at today's market prices, you think they're almost as good as Boston. I don't. And I think their home ice advantage is inflated. In theory, I could recommend an even bigger bet on the Bruins, but, I was wrong about where the 'value' was, at least according to the market.
Anaheim Ducks (plus-150) at New Jersey Devils (-170)
Anaheim lost their second game in a row on Monday when they fell to the Rangers 6-4 in New York. The Devils are in the same weight class, but they’re not at full strength. Forward Jakob Silfverberg was out Monday due to an illness, and goaltender John Gibson couldn’t play the third period. Backup goaltender Anthony Stolarz was already the likely starter for Tuesday after getting action in two out of the Ducks’ three games. All his appearances have been in relief of Gibson, though, and I don’t think bettors should look past, or blindly fade, him on Tuesday. My model has the Devils priced around -145, but I’m not necessarily in a rush to bet on the Ducks unless the price gets out of hand. Stolarz seems to be a good goaltender, which is something the Devils might not have. For right not, though: No bet.
Philadelphia Flyers (plus-230) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-275)
Philadelphia is playing simple hockey under new head coach John Tortorella, and it’s paid off with two wins to open the season. But they aren’t going to be able to hang on in games like that all season. The Flyers have been outplayed, and they’re missing Sean Couturier, Cam Atkinson, Owen Tippett and Rasmus Ristolainen due to injury. Tuesday’s game against the Lightning will be the first half of a back-to-back for the Flyers, who will play the Panthers in Sunrise on Wednesday. Carter Hart will start at least one of the games, but backup Felix Sandstrom could start the other. The Lightning will likely turn back to Andrei Vasilevskiy after backup Brian Elliott was shelled in Pittsburgh. According to my model, the Lightning should be priced north of -300, and therefore, their odds of covering the puck line are too short at -105.
Bet: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (-105) Stake: 0.525 units to win 0.5 units
San Jose Sharks (plus-190) at New York Islanders (-210)
The Sharks stink, but they probably aren’t as bad as their 0-4 record suggests. However, the Islanders are tough out for an offensively challenged team like San Jose. The Sharks have scored just six goals in four games so far this season, one year after finishing among the bottom-five on offense. I won’t be backing the favorite here, as I think their odds are borderline absurd, but if Islanders’ starting goaltender Ilya Sorokin gets the night off, I might bite on the Sharks, even though I’m dreading it. Not bet, as of now, though.
Vegas Golden Knights (plus-135) at Calgary Flames (-155)
This should be one of, if not, the best games on Tuesday. Both Calgary and Vegas have gotten off to hot starts, with Calgary going 2-0 against Colorado and Edmonton, and Vegas padding their record (3-0) with games against the Kraken, Blackhawks and Kings. From a betting perspective, though, there’s not a lot to talk about. My model prices the game in a similar manner to the betting market, which means: No bet.
Buffalo Sabres (plus-220) at Edmonton Oilers (-250)
After two games, I could see the Buffalo Sabres taking up the mantle of ‘scrappy underdog’. They played well in their win over the Senators on opening night and followed that up by keeping a game against the Florida Panthers close. This four-game road trip through Western Canada, and Seattle, is going to test them, though. Edmonton should win this game, but my model lists their chances at around 71 percent, which converts to odds of around -245. No bet.
Los Angeles Kings (plus-140) at Nashville Predators (-160)
On Monday, I said I was willing to bet (on the Winnipeg Jets) that the Dallas Stars had benefited from playing a jet-lagged team from Nashville in their first two games. Now, I’m not so sure. Maybe the Predators are bad? I guess I’ll find out sooner rather than later. I know they have an elite goaltender in Juuse Saros, which is never fun to bet against, but the Kings are a good team, with two good goaltenders. Cal Petersen is rested given that Jonathan Quick was in goal when the Kings picked up a win over Detroit, and that’s apparently enough for my model, as it’s closer to the Kings than the Predators. However, I want to bet better odds than plus-140 if I’m going to bet on L.A. on this day. Not bet, as of right now.