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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 10/12

By Andy MacNeil  (VSiN.com) 

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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

Market Report for Tuesday, Oct. 12

Opening day of the 2021-22 regular season is finally here. Sure, there are only two games on tap, but let’s not complain about the schedule. Hockey is back and there is a lot of hype around both of these games. The Tampa Bay Lightning are going to raise another Stanley Cup banner at Amalie Arena and the Seattle Kraken are kicking everything off in Las Vegas.

Let’s take a look at things from a betting perspective:

Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 200) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-240)

No Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin or Jake Guentzel means no play on the Pittsburgh Penguins unless the line gets really out of hand. I doubt it will get to that point, though. And on the flip side, the time has come and gone to hop on the Tampa Bay Lightning. At this moment, it’s simply a -EV bet, regardless of which side you might like. The line for this game has been up at many shops for weeks, even months, and has moved a lot in that time. There was quite a bit of value on the Lightning earlier in the month but the market has settled and the number feels right.

Player Props: Nikita Kucherov Under 1.5 Points -115 (DraftKings), Ondrej Palat Over 1.5 Shots -175, Jeff Carter Under 0.5 Points -125, Kasperi Kapanen Under 0.5 Points -120 (BetMGM)

If betting against Nikita Kucherov feels like you're tempting fate, it's because you are, but there's probably a bit of recency bias behind that feeling and it looks to be baked into the line as well. Kucherov is a great player, but he was on a mission in last year’s playoffs and this is just another game. Ondrej Palat will have a bigger role on the team this season and should register at least two shots approximately 66 percent of the time which equates to projected odds of -195.

Jeff Carter is filling in for Sidney Crosby on the Penguins' top line and while I'm sure a lot of bettors are looking at him to cash some props, I'll be on the other side. The odds of Carter going pointless are very much in our favor according to the Propagator so there's value in betting him to go pointless at -125. And while we're at it, let's also bet against Kasperi Kapanen getting a point given that the odds of that happening are much better than -120.

Seattle Kraken (+ 210) at Vegas Golden Knights (-250)

As noted earlier in the day, there was hope that Joonas Donskoi, Jarred McCann and Jamie Oleksiak would play on Tuesday, but now we've learned that they will not be in the lineup. All three players are in COVID protocol and did not travel with the team. There would've been some value in betting the Kraken on the moneyline, but that ship has sailed with the news. There's virtually no chance that I end up betting on the Kraken given the current situation and I don't foresee myself laying a big price with the Vegas Golden Knights here. I understand that bettors are ready to go, but we're only looking at the first two games of a 1,312 game regular season so patience is key.

Player Props: Max Pacioretty Under 0.5 Points + 150 (DraftKings), Alex Pietrangelo Under 0.5 Points -105, Alex Pietrangelo Over 3.5 Shots + 115, Jonathan Marchessault Over 2.5 Shots -140 (BetMGM)

Like the Kucherov prop, betting against Max Pacioretty to get his name on the scoresheet is a little scary. He's going to register a point more often than not, but + 150 odds offer value relative to the projection generated by the Propagator which lines this prop at just -125 to the over. Alex Pietrangelo will have opportunities to score with about a 50 percent chance of generating over 3.5 shots on goal, however, he's not on the first power play unit and there is quite a bit of value in betting on him not to produce at -105.

Summary:

Early bets: Nikita Kucherov Under 1.5 Points -115 (DraftKings), Ondrej Palat Over 1.5 Shots -175 (BetMGM), Max Pacioretty Under 0.5 Points + 150 (DraftKings), Alex Pietrangelo Under 0.5 Points -105, Alex Pietrangelo Over 3.5 Shots + 115, Jonathan Marchessault Over 2.5 Shots -140 (BetMGM)

Late adds: Jeff Carter Under 0.5 Points -125, Kasperi Kapanen Under 0.5 Points -120 (BetMGM)

Don't forget there's still time to pick up your copy of VSiN's 2021-22 NHL Betting Guide and follow me on Twitter.

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