NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 10/11

October 11, 2022 08:43 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report. Your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date as I handicap the NHL regular season.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but remember to shop around before placing a bet.

Market Report for Tuesday, October. 11th

The NHL dropped the puck on the 2022-23 regular season this past weekend with a set of back-to-back games in Prague, Czech Republic between the Sharks and Predators, but the real fun starts this week.

Tampa Bay Lightning (EVEN) at New York Rangers (- 120)

This is a rematch of the Eastern Conference Final and there’s likely still some bad blood here, even if it’s just hurt feelings on one side. After all, the Rangers were eliminated by the Lightning after blowing an 0-2 series lead. The Lightning no longer have forward Ondrej Palat or defenseman Ryan McDonagh, though, and centre Anthony Cirelli, the team’s best shut-down forward, is on the shelf indefinitely.

Of course, they do have a healthy Brayden Point in the lineup, which is something they didn’t have at the tail end of 2021-22. New York looks like a more dynamic team, too, with the addition of centre Vincent Trocheck. But, from a betting perspective, there isn’t much to get excited about here, as my model suggests New York ought to be priced around -110.

Notes: I think it’s safe to say that Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin will start in goal for their respective teams, even if it hasn't been confirmed.

Vegas Golden Knights (-105) at Los Angeles Kings (-115)

It looked like forward Viktor Arvidsson, who was injured late last season, would miss the start of the 2022-23 campaign, but recent reports suggest there’s a good chance he’ll suit up on Tuesday. Arvidsson is one of the top players in the league when it comes to generating shots and scoring chances, and the Kings are a much deeper team with he and newly signed forward Kevin Fiala on different lines. Fiala is also an elite player in terms of his ability to produce shots and chances from inside the most dangerous areas.

This new look Kings’ team is really intriguing, but one player might not dramatically change their offensive output. As good as Los Angeles was in 2021-22, they were mediocre on offense, and until there’s some evidence that suggests things have changed, I think it’s safer to only expect marginal improvements. Vegas isn’t the contender they once were, but there’s still a good team here, even if it’ll be a while until the book is out on rookie goaltender Logan Thompson.

My model prices the Kings around -115, assuming Arvidsson does indeed play. But, depending on which goaltenders get the nod, I could be drawn to bet the total, as these teams tend to play at a very high pace. Last season, Vegas and Los Angeles ranked sixth and seventh, respectively, in shot attempts per 60 minutes. All four games between the Golden Knights and Kings featured at least six goals, and three of those games went over the total.

Note: Neither team has announced their starting goalies.

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PRO TIPS

The Greg Peterson Experience: In NBA and college hoops, place more value on teams that emphasize low post defense. It travels much better than shooting. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Paul Howard: Seahawks Win NFC West +350. View more picks

Gill Alexander: Bengals (-6) vs. Browns. View more picks

 

 

 

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