Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.
All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick. Follow me on Twitter.
Record: 113-111, -6.15 units, -2.7 percent ROI
Market Report Recap for Tuesday, June 7th
There were no recommended bets for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference final outside of a couple of player prop bets. Steven Stamkos (+ 115) and Nikita Kucherov (+ 120) over 3.5 shots on goal. Both players had great nights, but only Kucherov was able to register four shots. Stamkos finished with three, so the bets split for a small profit.
Market Report for Thursday, June 9th
Let’s look at Game 5 of the Eastern Conference final from a betting perspective.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-125) at New York Rangers (+ 105)
New York’s head coach Girard Gallant has just one job heading into Game 5 of the Eastern Conference final, and that is to keep Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider as far away from Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn and Brandon Hagel as possible. Jon Cooper put that trio together in Game 2 and they’ve mostly dominated at five-on-five ever since. They haven’t scored yet, but they haven’t allowed a goal, either. In just under 30 minutes of ice time, Cirelli, Killorn and Hagel have owned 65 percent of the shot attempts, 69 percent of the scoring chances and high danger chances were 11-2 in favor of the Lightning when they were on the ice. Zibanejad and Kreider have not scored an even strength goal this line, but the Rangers will have last change in Game 5 and that could free things up for their two best forwards.
However, there are question marks further down their lineup, as forwards Ryan Strome and Fillip Chytil are regarded as game-time decisions. Strome took warmups prior to Game 4 but did not play, while Chytil left in the second period and did not return. Chytil only scored eight goals in 67 regular season games, but he's potted seven in 18 playoff games. Only Zibanejad and Kreider have more (10). The ‘Kid Line’ which consists of Chytil, Alexis Lafrenière and Kaapo Kakko has been a big reason why the Rangers have been able to outperform expectations in these playoffs, and they’ve got a better chance to win with all three players in the lineup.
High danger chances were 26-21 in favor of Tampa Bay after the first two games in New York, but the Lightning held a 29-12 edge in that category as the home team in Games 3 and 4. The question is, how much of the Lightning’s performance in the last two games was driven by home-ice advantage, and how much did being off for more than a week impact them in Games 1 and 2. The rest advantage should work in the Lightning’s favor as this series stretches on, and I can justify making a wager (-125) on them to take a 3-2 series lead with a win in Game 5. There’s a chance that Brayden Point plays, as he hasn’t been ruled out for yet. If he does play, and the Rangers are down two top-nine forwards, it would really turn the game on its head, but I’m not optimistic.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-125)
Tampa Bay Lightning (-125)
Player Prop Bets:
There are no recommended player prop bets currently.
Record: 124-126, -14.55 units, -4.97 percent ROI