Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.
All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.
Record: 112-110, + -6.03 nits, -2.6 percent ROI
Market Report Recap for Wednesday, June 1st
New York defeated Tampa Bay 6-2 in Game 1, and it was a bit surprising to see them take over the way they did given how bad they looked in the first period. The Rangers opened the scoring about a minute into the game, but it seemed like the goal woke the Lightning up and they were the better team after that. New York took over the game in the second, though, and Igor Shesterkin was great. The half-size bet on the Lightning at -125 was a loser, but Shesterkin made over 28.5 saves (37) at -105.
Market Report for Thursday, June 2nd
After a wild 14-goal series opener, the hockey world is looking for Edmonton and Colorado to provide them with goals again on Thursday, and so is the betting market. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.
Edmonton Oilers (+ 150) at Colorado Avalanche (-170)
With about four minutes remaining in the second period of Game 1, the Avalanche took a 7-3 lead. They had generated 63 percent of the expected goals and 62 percent of the shot attempts. Of course, the Oilers did come back and make it game, getting within one (7-6) with about seven minutes remaining in regulation but Gabriel Landeskog put it in the Oilers’ empty net with 22 seconds left and the comeback fell short. Mike Smith was bad, but he deserves a lot of credit for helping the Oilers get to Western Conference final and I would imagine he will be better in Game 2, but I still don’t have a lot of confidence in him in terms of putting my own money down. The Avalanche’s goaltending situation is still up in the air. It looks like Pavel Francouz is going to start on Thursday after Darcy Kuemper left Game 1 with some sort of injury. Francouz isn’t a bad goaltender. He’s 31 years old, and he’s been around the block. He put up great numbers in the KHL and he’s been a solid NHL goaltender.
Colorado finished Game 1 with 78 shot attempts, but they gave up more shot attempts (72) than they did in any of their previous playoff games. They’re used to seeing somewhere between 45-55 shot attempts, which is below league average. If the Oilers can keep pace like that, and get better goaltending from Mike Smith, we might have ourselves a series. The Avalanche would be in a better position to win Game 2 if Kuemper was in goal, but they haven’t been winning because of him. He’s been good enough, but not great. Sometimes he’s even been bad, and the Avalanche have shown that they can overcome a poor performance in goal, but maybe Francouz will be just fine in Game 2. My model is in line with the market, so I’m not going to have a pre-game bet on either side, and I’m certainly not going to argue with you if you want to bet on the game total to go over. I do have two player prop bets that I feel are worth sharing, though.
Player Prop Bets via DraftKings Sportsbook:
Nazem Kadri Over 3.5 Shots -105
Kadri has only gone over that mark four times in the playoffs, but he’s generated 16 shots over his last two games, and nine shots in Game 1 of the Western Conference final. The Oilers give up 38 shots per 60 minutes, and Kadri, who will have Mikko Rantanen feeding him the puck, should have plenty of opportunities to get pucks on net in Game 2.
Zach Hyman Over 3.5 Shots + 120
Hyman has generated 12 shots in his last two games, and has registered four or more in eight out of 13 playoff games. He's generated more high danger chances than any other player in the playoffs, according to Natural Stat Trick, and he's smart enough to know that with the Avalanche keying in on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, he's going to have to keep pulling his weight on offense.