NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 5/5

May 5, 2022 08:37 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge. Let’s look at each series from a betting perspective.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Recap for Wednesday, May 4

Wednesday was a tough day. Neither the Bruins, nor the Blues, were able to make it close, as both games got out of hand early.

Record: 111-98, + 3.9 units, 1.8 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, May 5

There are four games scheduled for Thursday, and four teams will try to even the series at 1-1, while their opponents will be trying to take a 2-0 series lead.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 140) at New York Rangers (-160)

Goaltender Louis Domingue deserves a lot of credit for coming into Game 1 cold. He made 17 stops and helped the Penguins get a victory in a game that they deserved to win. There’s a reason he’s been on five teams in three years, though. Domingue has a .905 career save percentage and while the team might rally around him, he’s going to outperform that if the Penguins want to win the series with him between the pipes. Igor Shesterkin’s performance in Game 1 was historically good, and the fact that New York lost the game is not at all on him. The betting market has shifted toward the Rangers due to DeSmith’s injury, and according to my model, it’s gone a little too far in that direction. The Penguins were dominant at even strength in Game 1, owning approximately 58 percent of the shot attempts and finished with a 66 percent share of expected goals. According to my model, the Penguins should be priced closer to + 130 than + 140, and I recommend making a small bet on the road team to win the game straight up.

Pick:

Pittsburgh Penguins + 140 (half size)

Washington Capitals (+ 205) at Florida Panthers (-250)

Washington played a great game on Tuesday. They held the Panthers to just two goals on 25 shots and finished the game with an expected goals for percentage of 58 at even strength, but the home team is likely going to bounce back today. Still, there’s value on Washington at + 200, and while I don’t expect to win this bet, my model suggests the Capitals will win more often than the odds imply they will. Florida’s goaltender, Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t been reliable, and even though it’s going to be a sweat, but I’m backing the Capitals at + 205.

Pick:

Washington Capitals + 205 (half size)

Nashville Predators (+ 310) at Colorado Avalanche (-400)

If Game 1 was any indication of how this series is going to go, it’s going to be over quick. There was a point in the first period where the Avalanche had more goals than the Predators had shots, and when it was all said and done, Colorado’s shot share approximately 71 percent, they skated away with a 7-2 victory. It’s unclear who will start in goal for Nashville after David Rittich was pulled in Game 1. Ingram played well in relief, allowing two goals on 32 shots, but the 25-year-old goaltender only has three career starts under his belt, so there’s a lot of uncertainty regarding how he will perform on such a big stage. He’s not a known quantity, like Rittich, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. I’m quite certain that Rittich, who posted a .886 save percentage in 17 games in the regular season, is not going to provide the Predators with adequate goaltending, but the verdict is still out on Ingram, who at the very least, has some pedigree. Still, I’m not optimistic about the Predators’ chances of winning a game.

Dallas Stars (+ 195) at Calgary Flames (-240)

The Calgary Flames are a throwback. I was choked that they couldn’t cover the puck line, given that they dominated the Stars in Game 1, but this team seems to be built for the playoffs. Jake Oettinger played great in goal for Dallas, and he was the only thing stopping the Flames from blowing the game wide open, but it won’t matter how good he is if the Stars can’t produce enough offense. They’re the second lowest scoring team in the playoffs, and it wasn’t encouraging to see them get shutout and only generate 16 shots in the process. If the Flames have a repeat performance, which seems somewhat likely given how consistent they’ve been this season, they should score a lot more goals this time around. Dallas is outmatched, and my model suggests that the Flames will cover the puck line more often than not.

Pick:

Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5, + 110

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Washington Capitals + 205 (half size)

Pittsburgh Penguins + 140 (half size)

Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5, + 110

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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