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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 5/5

May 5, 2022 08:37 AM
USATSI_18197816

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge. Let’s look at each series from a betting perspective.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Recap for Wednesday, May 4

Wednesday was a tough day. Neither the Bruins, nor the Blues, were able to make it close, as both games got out of hand early.

Record: 111-98, + 3.9 units, 1.8 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, May 5

There are four games scheduled for Thursday, and four teams will try to even the series at 1-1, while their opponents will be trying to take a 2-0 series lead.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 140) at New York Rangers (-160)

Goaltender Louis Domingue deserves a lot of credit for coming into Game 1 cold. He made 17 stops and helped the Penguins get a victory in a game that they deserved to win. There’s a reason he’s been on five teams in three years, though. Domingue has a .905 career save percentage and while the team might rally around him, he’s going to outperform that if the Penguins want to win the series with him between the pipes. Igor Shesterkin’s performance in Game 1 was historically good, and the fact that New York lost the game is not at all on him. The betting market has shifted toward the Rangers due to DeSmith’s injury, and according to my model, it’s gone a little too far in that direction. The Penguins were dominant at even strength in Game 1, owning approximately 58 percent of the shot attempts and finished with a 66 percent share of expected goals. According to my model, the Penguins should be priced closer to + 130 than + 140, and I recommend making a small bet on the road team to win the game straight up.

Pick:

Pittsburgh Penguins + 140 (half size)

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