NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 5/26

May 26, 2022 10:51 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge. Let’s look at each series from a betting perspective.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report for Wednesday, May 25th

There were no recommended bets on Tuesday.

Record: 112-109, -5.4 units, -2.4 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, May 26th

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

New York Rangers (+ 135) at Carolina Hurricanes (-155)

Carolina can’t win on the road, but they’re undefeated at home in the playoffs. That’s the story heading into Game 5 but the real story is Igor Shesterkin. He’s posted a .959 save percentage in the series, which would probably be the talk of the hockey world if not for Andrei Vasilevskiy’s .980 save percentage in four games versus the Panthers. Shesterkin has been exactly what the Rangers need him to be, and that’s bad news for the Hurricanes. Andrei Svechnikov and Vincent Trocheck are pointless in the series so far, and overall, the Hurricanes offense seems to have dried up, like it did for a stretch in the regular season. The Rangers offense hasn’t been great, but they’ve been the better team at even strength for much of the series, and their goaltender is playing great. My model estimates that the Hurricanes should be priced around -140. I haven't made any pregame bets in this series, and it looks like that's going to the case once again. With such a low margin for error in the series so far, I will be looking for an opportunity to jump on either team in game.

Edmonton Oilers (+ 130) at Calgary Flames (-150)

Calgary was the better team in the first two games, but Edmonton grabbed the momentum late in Game 2 and carried it over to Game 3 at home. The Flames were better in Game 4, but they still don’t look as sharp as the Oilers and Markstrom wasn’t good enough. Calgary’s share of expected goals at even strength was just 44 percent in the Games 3 and 4, and they were outscored 7-2, so the Oilers have been the better team, and they have finish. We can talk about McDavid and Draisaitl all day, but players like Evander Kane and Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins have made big contributions on offense. That could dry up in Game 5, but why would it? Jacob Markstrom will have to be elite, and he hasn’t been. So, the Flames will need Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm to have their best game of the series. Gaudreau doesn’t have a single goal on 19 shots, and he hasn’t looked dangerous. Matthew Tkachuk hasn’t been much of a factor, either, since his big performance in Game 1.

The Flames are a good team, but maybe they punched above their weight class in the regular season more than I thought they did. Or maybe they snap out of a funk, come out with a great performance and stave off elimination in Game 5. I don’t know. What I do know is that McDavid and Draisaitl are beasts, and the rest of the team has been following their lead. My model prices the game at around -154 in favor of the Flames, but I think it’s safe to say that you can throw all that junk out the window at this point. It’s hard to put a team away in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, as was on display in Colorado on Wednesday, but this doesn’t feel the same. It really does feel like the only reason the Flames were able to dominate the Oilers through the better part of Games 1 and 2 is that Edmonton hadn’t yet been inspired by their leaders, McDavid and Draisaitl. It sounds corny, but if you’ve watched the series play out, it’s clear that Edmonton is playing like a team that knows they can win, and that’s because they have the best player in the world. The Flames have only scored more than three goals in a game once so far in the series, and the Oilers have scored at least four goals in every game. Edmonton’s record when they score four goals, or more is 43-5 dating back to the regular season.

Player Prop Picks (DraftKings Sportsbook):

Johnny Hockey hasn’t lived up to the name, but he has hit over 3.5 shots in six straight games, and eight of his last nine. It’s a travesty that he hasn’t played more minutes, too, but with the Flames’ backs against the wall, he might play more than 18 minutes in Game 5. Gaudreau has 19 shots in four games but doesn’t have a goal to show for it. I expect him play at an even higher pace on Thursday.

Johnny Gaudreau Over 3.5 Shots -110

Bet Summary:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Johnny Gaudreau Over 3.5 Shots -110

Record: 119-119, -12 units, -4.29 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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Follow The Money: Consider schedules before betting on a team. What happened before and what is coming up can impact if a team is worth backing. Like SEA hosting CAR (off their bye) with SF in Week 15.  View more tips.

The Greg Peterson Experience: Have a value in mind for a dropoff to a backup quarterback from the starter, as many QBs are injured at this time of the season. View more tips.

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Dave Tuley: Saints +3.5. ​​​View more picks.

Greg Peterson: Troy +16 vs San Diego St. ​​​View more picks

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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VSiN PrimeTime: Be aware of injuries on the offensive line, skill positions get the most publicity, but if an elite tackle is out it could have a huge impact on the game. View more tips.

A Numbers Game: If you’re just getting into soccer betting, make sure you know exactly what you’re betting. i.e. Double chance, to win, to advance, etc. View more tips.
 
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Chuck Edel: Kansas State +2.5 vs TCU. View more picks.

Kenny White: Fresno State +3 vs Boise St. View more picks.
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