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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 5/12

May 12, 2022 09:59 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report for Wednesday, May 11

There’s a dark cloud hanging over my bets right now. Several of the teams I’ve bet on have blown leads in games, but last night things reached a new low, as the Washington Capitals lost Game 5 despite leading 3-0 in the second period.

Record: 111-103, + -1.75 units, -0.8 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, May 12

Four teams are facing elimination on Thursday. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Toronto Maple Leafs (+ 110) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-130)

Tampa Bay’s 16-0 record after a loss in the playoffs is well publicized, but they should be concerned heading into Game 6. The Lightning have allowed at least three goals in all five games in this series, and that’s not their typical recipe for playoff success. Since the start of the playoffs in 2020, the Lightning are 26-2 when Andrei Vasilevskiy allows two or fewer goals, but they’re 8-14 in games where he allows three goals or more. If any player deserves the benefit of the doubt, it’s Vasilevskiy, but last year’s playoff MVP has posted an .880 save percentage in this series and he’s going to have to be a lot better in Game 6 if the Lightning want to keep their dream of a Stanley Cup three-peat alive. I’ve still got a bet on the Lightning to win the series, but I’m not super hopeful about their chances of winning the game. The Lightning should be priced as a slight favorite, according to my model, but it’s a lot tougher to envision Vasilevskiy churning out an MVP-caliber performance now than it was at the start of the series.

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