NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 5/12

May 12, 2022 09:59 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report for Wednesday, May 11

There’s a dark cloud hanging over my bets right now. Several of the teams I’ve bet on have blown leads in games, but last night things reached a new low, as the Washington Capitals lost Game 5 despite leading 3-0 in the second period.

Record: 111-103, + -1.75 units, -0.8 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, May 12

Four teams are facing elimination on Thursday. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Toronto Maple Leafs (+ 110) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-130)

Tampa Bay’s 16-0 record after a loss in the playoffs is well publicized, but they should be concerned heading into Game 6. The Lightning have allowed at least three goals in all five games in this series, and that’s not their typical recipe for playoff success. Since the start of the playoffs in 2020, the Lightning are 26-2 when Andrei Vasilevskiy allows two or fewer goals, but they’re 8-14 in games where he allows three goals or more. If any player deserves the benefit of the doubt, it’s Vasilevskiy, but last year’s playoff MVP has posted an .880 save percentage in this series and he’s going to have to be a lot better in Game 6 if the Lightning want to keep their dream of a Stanley Cup three-peat alive. I’ve still got a bet on the Lightning to win the series, but I’m not super hopeful about their chances of winning the game. The Lightning should be priced as a slight favorite, according to my model, but it’s a lot tougher to envision Vasilevskiy churning out an MVP-caliber performance now than it was at the start of the series.

Carolina Hurricanes (+ 105) at Boston Bruins (-125)

The home team has yet to lose a game in this series. The Hurricanes have dominated the Bruins on the scoreboard in Carolina, but it’s been tougher to do in Boston. Last change has meant a lot in this series, and the Bruins will have to figure out a way to win in Carolina if they want to move onto the next round. Of course, it will all be over if the Hurricanes win on the road first. It sounds like Boston will have their top defensive pairing back together, as head coach Bruce Cassidy said that he expects to see Hampus Lindholm back on the blueline with Charlie McAvoy, but nothing has been confirmed yet. As is the case in a lot of these matchups, my model suggests that the game line is priced appropriately, and while I do hope the Bruins can stay alive, I won’t be betting on them to win Game 6 unless the odds move significantly.

Minnesota Wild (-105) at St. Louis Blues (-115)

I don’t have a whole lot to say about this series, but one of the hottest trends in the first round is the first period scoring in this series. If we don’t count empty net goals (there have been four ENG in five games), the teams have scored more goals in the first period than the second or third. Minnesota and St. Louis have combined for 12 first-period goals so far in the series, and they’ve gone over the first period total (1.5) in every game. The odds on the over are -150, so it’s not super appealing, but it’s a bet that’s worth considering if you’re looking for action in this game. I hope the Blues can close out the series on Thursday, as it would be nice to win at least one of the underdogs that I backed to win the series.

Edmonton Oilers (-140) at Los Angeles Kings (+ 120)

A lot of the time bigger playoff underdogs try to play low variance, shutdown hockey, like what we’ve seen the Dallas Stars attempt to do versus the Calgary Flames, but the Kings have taken a different approach altogether and it’s worked out so far. The Oilers aren’t as well-structured as their Southern Alberta counterparts, and the Kings know that. They’ve been outmatched offensively at times, but they’ve been running and gunning with the Oilers, which is not something a lot of people expected. Despite being blown out in Games 2 and 3, the Kings put two solid performances together in back-to-back games, owning more than 60 percent of the shots at even strength in Game 4 and Game 5. They’ve had some luck on their side, but frankly, the Kings have outplayed the Oilers in three out of five games in this series, and they deserve to be in the position that they’re in. What’s even more impressive is that they’ve done all of this without Drew Doughty or Viktor Arvidsson, and now the Oilers are without their best defender, Darnell Nurse, as he is serving a one-game suspension for headbutting Kings’ forward Phillip Danault. I don’t think there’s value on the Kings at + 120, but I wouldn’t recommend a bet on the Oilers, either. According to my model, the betting market has this game priced correctly.

Bet Summary:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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