NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 4/28

April 28, 2022 07:09 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey

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Market Report Recap for Wednesday, April 27th

There were no recommended bets on Wednesday.

Record: 109-93, + 6.22 units, 3.0 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, April 28th

Approach with caution. That’s been the theme of my handicapping over the last couple of weeks, and with just two days left in the regular season, playoff teams are going to rest some of their top players. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

New Jersey Devils (+ 260) at Carolina Hurricanes (-300)

Carolina won the Metropolitan Division, so they have absolutely nothing to play for heading into Thursday’s game against the Devils. The Hurricanes will likely choose to start resting some of their star players and that makes it difficult to handicap this game. New Jersey only has six wins in their last 23 games, and the Hurricanes should still win this game regardless of what their lineup looks like. My model suggests the home team should be a bigger favorite than they are, but that doesn’t take into account all of the questions that I have about their lineup.

Buffalo Sabres (+ 280) at Boston Bruins (-320)

The Bruins are coming off a big win over the Florida Panthers at home, and they can still improve their position in the standings if they catch the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, I’m not sure they want to do that. As of now, the Bruins would enter the playoffs as the wild card in the Metropolitan Division, which means their road to the Stanley Cup would first go through Carolina, then through Pittsburgh or New York, and that route is a lot easier than the one that has stops in Toronto, Tampa Bay or Florida. I assume the Bruins will rest several top players on Thursday, though. Patrice Bergeron and other top stars could use a break before the post season grind begins, and I’m sure head coach Bruce Cassidy is cognizant of that.

Florida Panthers (-235) at Ottawa Senators (+ 210)

Florida is in the driver’s seat in the race for the Presidents’ Trophy, and their magic number to clinch is three points. Nobody cares about that trophy, though. In fact, it’s often seen as more of a curse than a blessing, and I don’t believe the Panthers will go out of their way to win their remaining games. It’s unknown which players the Panthers will rest on Thursday, but they will almost certainly be resting some of their top players.

Notes: Spencer Knight will start in goal for the Panthers.

Washington Capitals (-135) at New York Islanders (+ 115)

Alex Ovechkin did not play on Tuesday due to an upper body injury, but the veteran sniper did travel with the team to New York and there’s a possibility that he will suit up on Thursday. Washington still has a chance to get out of the wild card spot, but they must pass the Penguins to do it. I believe this matters to the team, as playing the Rangers in the opening round sounds a lot better than drawing the Panthers as the second wild card team. The Capitals can’t catch the Boston Bruins. I might be interested in laying down a small bet on the Capitals if Ovechkin is in the lineup, as my model prices the road team closer to -150 if he’s in and Vitek Vanecek is in goal. The Islanders aren’t at full strength, and this will be their fourth game in six days.

Calgary Flames (+ 100) at Minnesota Wild (-120)

The Wild will meet the St. Louis Blues in the opening round of the playoffs, but home ice is still up for grabs, and that could be the edge that lifts one team over the other in what will surely be a tightly contested series. The Flames, meanwhile, have nothing to play for and there’s no word on whether Jacob Markstrom will make another start before the end of the regular season. Load management wasn’t really an option the last time Daryll Sutter coached in the NHL, but assuming he’s with the times, the team must be at least considering resting some of their top players. If neither team rests any important players, and Markstrom starts, the Flames should be the favorite. I’ll consider backing Calgary one last time before the playoffs if that’s the case. Otherwise, I won’t have a vested interest in this game.

Nashville Predators (+ 200) at Colorado Avalanche (-250)

There’s still no word on how serious the injury to Juuse Saros is, but the Predators will likely be forced to start David Rittich on Thursday in Colorado. That doesn’t bode well for the Predators’ chances of winning this game, but the team clinched a playoff spot on Wednesday, and this is a meaningless contest. Superstar forward Mikko Rantanen could return to the Avalanche lineup in time to play Nashville, but Gabriel Landeskog is still out. Colorado can still win the Presidents’ Trophy, but I don’t think that’s their goal. I expect some of their top stars to sit this game out, but it remains to be seen which players that will be.

 

Bet Summary:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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