NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 4/21

April 21, 2022 10:48 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey

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Market Report Recap for Wednesday, April 20th

There were no recommended bets on Wednesday.

Record: 108-93, + 5.22 units, 2.5 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, April 21st

There are 11 games on Thursday, but there aren’t any sides that feel strongly enough about to take an early position on.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Detroit Red Wings (+ 450) at Florida Panthers (-600)

If the sport of hockey wasn’t so influenced by luck, teams like the Detroit Red Wings would rarely win a game. Some people would say they’re scrappy, or they play good defense, but I would disagree. The Red Wings are getting bombarded on a nightly basis. According to Evolving Hockey, they’ve been the second worst team in terms of expected goals against per 60 minutes since March 26th. They rank as the third worst team by expected goals (for and against) and they’ve only scored 36.7 percent of the goals. It’s absurd that they won four games during that stretch, and three of those wins came against the Bruins, Hurricanes and (most recently) the Lightning. That nonsense likely won’t work with the Panthers, though. Detroit hosted Florida this past Sunday and lost 6-1, so it’s no wonder why the Panthers are carrying -600 moneyline odds. I’m sick of the Red Wings, and I’m sick of the Panthers messing around and having to come from behind to win games by one goal that they should be winning by two or three. Maybe I’ll look to get involved in-game, but otherwise I’m staying away.

Winnipeg Jets (+ 210) at Carolina Hurricanes (-240)

Carolina still has their sights set on winning the Metropolitan Division, while the Winnipeg Jets’ playoff hopes have faded. Winnipeg won’t have Mark Scheifele in the lineup, and they could be without starting goaltender Connor Hellebuyck due to an illness, but the Hurricanes are still missing their starter, Frederik Andersen, and forward Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Jordan Staal could be available to play for the Hurricanes on Thursday, but no decision has been made. The Jets have lost seven out of their last nine games, and while they’re likely going to lose another one against the Hurricanes, my model prices the home team at around -230, and therefore, I don’t believe there’s a value bet to be made at this time.

Boston Bruins (+ 105) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-125)

This is a marquee matchup, but both teams are missing some star power. The Bruins are still without forward David Pastrnak and defenceman Hampus Lindholm, while the Penguins are missing Evgeni Malkin (suspension) and starting goaltender Tristan Jarry (injury). The Bruins defeated the Penguins last weekend in Boston by a score of 2-1, and Pittsburgh has lost nine out of their last 13 games, but they’ve had four days off to regroup and that must be considered. According to my model, the market has done a good job of pricing this game and I’m not incentivized to back either side. The Penguins are a better team than their recent record indicates, but Casey DeSmith is a downgrade from Tristan Jarry. The Bruins might snap out of their recent slump on offense, but I don’t want to bet on it. Boston’s offense has scored goals at a rate of 2.3 per 60 minutes since Pastrnak’s injury.

New York Rangers (-125) at New York Islanders (+ 105)

Alexandar Georgiev hasn’t started a game for the Rangers since April 13th, and that should scare anyone who already decided to lay their money down on the favorite. The Rangers need to rest Shesterkin whenever they can, and their next game is against the Boston Bruins, so Thursday’s game against the Islanders looks like a good spot to play the backup. If that’s the case, the Rangers should be priced around -115, and bettors that decided to lay -130 or -125 will be left with a -EV bet.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-105) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-115)

Auston Matthews is traveling with the Maple Leafs on this road trip, and there is a chance that he could suit up Thursday in Tampa Bay, but nothing has been confirmed and probably won’t be until closer to game time. This makes an already tough game to handicap even tougher. The Maple Leafs have been playing much better than the Lightning over the last 25 games, but while Tampa Bay hasn’t been playing up to their full potential, they still could do so. You never know what kind of performance you’re going to get out of this team, but after a tough 4-3 loss to the Detroit Red Wings on home ice, they’re probably going to be up for this game. Toronto is playing their fourth game in six days, and if Matthews can’t play, I might consider backing the home team. However, on top of Matthews’ status, I’m also going to need confirmation that Andrei Vasilevskiy will be in goal, as that seems to be the one area that the Lightning have an edge in.

Vancouver Canucks (+ 155) at Minnesota Wild (-175)

The Vancouver don’t control their own destiny, but they’ve been winning hockey games and are still in the playoff race. It’s unlikely that they’ll find themselves in a playoff spot when it’s all said and done, but they’re making things interesting. However, the fact that the line hasn’t moved all day is a good indication that there isn’t any value to be had here. Vancouver opened as + 150 underdogs and the consensus line is now + 155. If the Canucks were a good bet, sharp bettors would have moved the line. Bo Horvat is still out of the lineup, and the Wild are a tough out. According to my model, the home team should be priced around -155 now that Cam Talbot is confirmed as the starting goaltender. The Wild would have better odds if they were at full strength, but this is a tougher spot with Marcus Foligno, Matt Dumba and Jordan Greenway all out of the lineup.

Dallas Stars (+ 190) at Calgary Flames (-220)

Calgary is back home after a two-game road trip while the Stars are coming off a 5-2 loss to the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday. Scott Wedgewood was in goal against the Oilers, so Jake Oettinger will almost certainly be between the pipes against Calgary. Dallas is two points ahead of the Vegas Golden Knights with one game in hand, and while they are in control of their own destiny to some degree, it’s unlikely that they will claim two points at the Saddledome. The Flames are on the brink of locking up the Pacific Division crown, and with two chances to do so at home against potential first round opponents, I don’t expect the team to let up. Calgary is playing their fourth game in six days, though, so they aren’t in a great position to take advantage of a tired team as they would be if they had been off for a couple of days. According to my model, the Flames should be priced around -230 if Jacob Markstrom is in goal, but the market seems to be moving toward the road team at most shops. I’m going to monitor the game line, and the news, throughout the day and maybe get involved a later time.

Bet Summary:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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