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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 4/21

April 21, 2022 10:48 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Wednesday, April 20th

There were no recommended bets on Wednesday.

Record: 108-93, + 5.22 units, 2.5 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, April 21st

There are 11 games on Thursday, but there aren’t any sides that feel strongly enough about to take an early position on.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Detroit Red Wings (+ 450) at Florida Panthers (-600)

If the sport of hockey wasn’t so influenced by luck, teams like the Detroit Red Wings would rarely win a game. Some people would say they’re scrappy, or they play good defense, but I would disagree. The Red Wings are getting bombarded on a nightly basis. According to Evolving Hockey, they’ve been the second worst team in terms of expected goals against per 60 minutes since March 26th. They rank as the third worst team by expected goals (for and against) and they’ve only scored 36.7 percent of the goals. It’s absurd that they won four games during that stretch, and three of those wins came against the Bruins, Hurricanes and (most recently) the Lightning. That nonsense likely won’t work with the Panthers, though. Detroit hosted Florida this past Sunday and lost 6-1, so it’s no wonder why the Panthers are carrying -600 moneyline odds. I’m sick of the Red Wings, and I’m sick of the Panthers messing around and having to come from behind to win games by one goal that they should be winning by two or three. Maybe I’ll look to get involved in-game, but otherwise I’m staying away.

Winnipeg Jets (+ 210) at Carolina Hurricanes (-240)

Carolina still has their sights set on winning the Metropolitan Division, while the Winnipeg Jets’ playoff hopes have faded. Winnipeg won’t have Mark Scheifele in the lineup, and they could be without starting goaltender Connor Hellebuyck due to an illness, but the Hurricanes are still missing their starter, Frederik Andersen, and forward Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Jordan Staal could be available to play for the Hurricanes on Thursday, but no decision has been made. The Jets have lost seven out of their last nine games, and while they’re likely going to lose another one against the Hurricanes, my model prices the home team at around -230, and therefore, I don’t believe there’s a value bet to be made at this time.

Boston Bruins (+ 105) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-125)

This is a marquee matchup, but both teams are missing some star power. The Bruins are still without forward David Pastrnak and defenceman Hampus Lindholm, while the Penguins are missing Evgeni Malkin (suspension) and starting goaltender Tristan Jarry (injury). The Bruins defeated the Penguins last weekend in Boston by a score of 2-1, and Pittsburgh has lost nine out of their last 13 games, but they’ve had four days off to regroup and that must be considered. According to my model, the market has done a good job of pricing this game and I’m not incentivized to back either side. The Penguins are a better team than their recent record indicates, but Casey DeSmith is a downgrade from Tristan Jarry. The Bruins might snap out of their recent slump on offense, but I don’t want to bet on it. Boston’s offense has scored goals at a rate of 2.3 per 60 minutes since Pastrnak’s injury.

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