NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 4/14

April 14, 2022 10:19 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Wednesday, April 13th

There were no recommended bets on Wednesday.

Record:

104-90, + 5.97 units, 3.0 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, April 14th

There are a dozen games scheduled for Thursday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Washington Capitals (+ 140) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-160)

The Capitals have the seventh best goal share (all situations) in the NHL since March 1st (18 games played) and they rank third, behind the Panthers and Maple Leafs, in goals per 60 minutes, according to Evolving Hockey. Toronto ranks third in expected goals (for and against) though, and they do a better job of generating and suppressing shots. Both teams are in my top-10, and according to my model, the market isn’t far off, but that estimate could change depending on the status of two defenders. Washington’s Dmitry Orlov and Toronto’s Jake Muzzin are both considered day-to-day, and since both players move the needle, the odds could shift in either direction if one returns and the other doesn’t.

Notes: Ilya Samsonov and Jack Campbell are expected to be the starting goaltenders.

Detroit Red Wings (+ 300) at Carolina Hurricanes (-360)

The Red Wings have won less than 30 percent of the time on the road this season, and no team allows more goals on a per 60-minute basis. They’ve lost 24 games on the road this season and in 20 of those losses, the margin of victory was two goals or more. The Red Wings have a 37 percent goal share over their last 20 games and only three teams have scored fewer goals per 60 minutes. Carolina is arguably the best defensive team in the league, and they still have something to play for. The Hurricanes haven’t clinched the top spot in the Metropolitan Division yet, and according to my model, the Hurricanes has more than an 80 percent chance of winning the game and I estimate that they’ll cover the puck line more than 60 percent of the time.

Notes: Antti Raanta is expected to start in goal for the Hurricanes. Raanta has a .915 save percentage and according to Evolving Hockey he has saved the team more than eight goals above expected.

Pick:

Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5, -140

New York Islanders (+ 140) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-160)

I won’t go as far as to say the Penguins would have defeated the Islanders on Tuesday if Tristan Jarry had been in goal, but I will say their chances of doing so would have been a lot better. Pittsburgh lost the game in a shootout, but they had a 64 percent expected goal share and probably deserved a better fate. Jarry will probably be between the pipes on Thursday, but after Bryan Rust and Evan Rodrigues were forced to leave Tuesday’s game due to an illness, it’s unclear what their lineup will look like. I don’t believe the Islanders have improved all that much, as they still grade out as a below average team that barely breaks even in categories like shot attempt percentage and expected goals. Shooting and saving luck is the only real change that I see, but I won’t be laying the favorite until there’s more information available about their lineup.  

Notes: Penguins’ star Evgeni Malkin is serving a four-game suspension. The Islanders play again on Friday in Montreal.

Update: Bryan Rust and Evan Rodrigues will be in the Penguins' lineup and Tristan Jarry will be in goal. Ilya Sorokin will start for the Islanders. I'm laying the favorite at -155, up to -160.

Pick:

Pittsburgh Penguins -155

Ottawa Senators (+ 240) at Boston Bruins (-280)

Hampus Lindholm and David Pastrnak have both been ruled out for the Bruins heading into Thursday’s game against the Senators in Ottawa. Matt Grzelcyk, however, is expected to be back in the lineup. It’s unclear who will start in goal, but I have Linus Ullmark and Anton Forsberg listed as the expected starters. The Bruins have been playing great hockey, but they’ve lost three of their last four games and have scored two or fewer goals in three straight games. In fact, they haven’t scored more than three goals in a game since before Pastrnak was injured. The Bruins will likely win this game even though they are missing some key players, but the Senators aren’t total pushovers, and they should put up a bit of a fight. According to my model, the Bruins should be priced around -290.

Notes: Ottawa defenceman Thomas Chabot is out indefinitely.

Vegas Golden Knights (+ 135) at Calgary Flames (-155)

The Flames have won five games in a row, and they’re going to win the Pacific Division, but head coach Darryl Sutter wasn’t happy with the team’s effort at practice on Wednesday. According to reports, Sutter did not shy away from tearing a strip off players he felt were lacking focus and not executing drills properly. He’s treating Thursday’s game against the Golden Knights as a playoff game against a Stanley Cup contender, and that’s why he should be every bettor’s favorite hockey coach. The Flames have been one of the most consistent teams, and Sutter deserves a lot of the credit. My model might be underestimating how good the Golden Knights are now that Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty are back in the lineup, but I’m going to trust my process and lay the favorite in this game. Robin Lehner has been below average since returning from injury, and I believe the home team’s moneyline odds should be closer to -170. The Flames should have a vested interest in keeping the Golden Knights out of the Western Conference playoff picture, and I feel confident that Jacob Markstrom will be the starting goaltender. Back the Flames on the moneyline at -155 or better.

Pick:

Calgary Flames -155

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5, -140

Calgary Flames -155

Late Adds: 

Pittsburgh Penguins -155

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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