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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 4/14

April 14, 2022 10:19 AM
USATSI_17652292

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Wednesday, April 13th

There were no recommended bets on Wednesday.

Record:

104-90, + 5.97 units, 3.0 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, April 14th

There are a dozen games scheduled for Thursday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Washington Capitals (+ 140) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-160)

The Capitals have the seventh best goal share (all situations) in the NHL since March 1st (18 games played) and they rank third, behind the Panthers and Maple Leafs, in goals per 60 minutes, according to Evolving Hockey. Toronto ranks third in expected goals (for and against) though, and they do a better job of generating and suppressing shots. Both teams are in my top-10, and according to my model, the market isn’t far off, but that estimate could change depending on the status of two defenders. Washington’s Dmitry Orlov and Toronto’s Jake Muzzin are both considered day-to-day, and since both players move the needle, the odds could shift in either direction if one returns and the other doesn’t.

Notes: Ilya Samsonov and Jack Campbell are expected to be the starting goaltenders.

Detroit Red Wings (+ 300) at Carolina Hurricanes (-360)

The Red Wings have won less than 30 percent of the time on the road this season, and no team allows more goals on a per 60-minute basis. They’ve lost 24 games on the road this season and in 20 of those losses, the margin of victory was two goals or more. The Red Wings have a 37 percent goal share over their last 20 games and only three teams have scored fewer goals per 60 minutes. Carolina is arguably the best defensive team in the league, and they still have something to play for. The Hurricanes haven’t clinched the top spot in the Metropolitan Division yet, and according to my model, the Hurricanes has more than an 80 percent chance of winning the game and I estimate that they’ll cover the puck line more than 60 percent of the time.

Notes: Antti Raanta is expected to start in goal for the Hurricanes. Raanta has a .915 save percentage and according to Evolving Hockey he has saved the team more than eight goals above expected.

Pick:

Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5, -140

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