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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 3/31

March 31, 2022 09:25 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Wednesday, March 30th

There was just one recommended bet on Wednesday, and even though it was a loser, I’m confident it was the right side. Los Angeles was better than Edmonton, owning 56 percent of the expected goals in regulation, but they couldn’t finish the job. There aren’t any shootouts in the playoffs, though, and if these two teams meet up in the first round at a similar price, I’ll be taking the dog.

Record:

99-86, + 5.60 units, 2.9 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, March 31st

There are nine games scheduled for Thursday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Winnipeg Jets (+ 190) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-220)

Prior to Wednesday’s game against the Sabres, and Winnipeg Jets announced that defenceman Nate Schmidt and forward Kyle Connor would both be held back in the US due to COVID and therefore won’t be available for the team’s next three games. Winnipeg was able to defeat the Sabres but taking down the Maple Leafs is a much tougher task. Toronto is coming off back-to-back wins over Florida and Boston, and they’re heavy favorites heading into this game. The Maple Leafs have underperformed in these situations, though. There have been 29 instances where the Maple Leafs have come into a game with moneyline odds of -200 or higher this season, and they’re sporting a record of 17-12. That might not see that bad, but based on the odds in those games, their win rate should have been upwards of 70 percent. Connor Hellebuyck started for the Jets on Wednesday, and while there’s a chance that they could go back to him on Thursday, it’s also possible that backup goaltender Eric Comrie will be in goal.

Notes: Rookie goaltender Erik Kallgren is expected to be between the pipes on Thursday, but there’s a chance that Jack Campbell could be back in the crease in time for Saturday’s game.

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