NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 3/31

March 31, 2022 09:25 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Wednesday, March 30th

There was just one recommended bet on Wednesday, and even though it was a loser, I’m confident it was the right side. Los Angeles was better than Edmonton, owning 56 percent of the expected goals in regulation, but they couldn’t finish the job. There aren’t any shootouts in the playoffs, though, and if these two teams meet up in the first round at a similar price, I’ll be taking the dog.

Record:

99-86, + 5.60 units, 2.9 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, March 31st

There are nine games scheduled for Thursday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Winnipeg Jets (+ 190) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-220)

Prior to Wednesday’s game against the Sabres, and Winnipeg Jets announced that defenceman Nate Schmidt and forward Kyle Connor would both be held back in the US due to COVID and therefore won’t be available for the team’s next three games. Winnipeg was able to defeat the Sabres but taking down the Maple Leafs is a much tougher task. Toronto is coming off back-to-back wins over Florida and Boston, and they’re heavy favorites heading into this game. The Maple Leafs have underperformed in these situations, though. There have been 29 instances where the Maple Leafs have come into a game with moneyline odds of -200 or higher this season, and they’re sporting a record of 17-12. That might not see that bad, but based on the odds in those games, their win rate should have been upwards of 70 percent. Connor Hellebuyck started for the Jets on Wednesday, and while there’s a chance that they could go back to him on Thursday, it’s also possible that backup goaltender Eric Comrie will be in goal.

Notes: Rookie goaltender Erik Kallgren is expected to be between the pipes on Thursday, but there’s a chance that Jack Campbell could be back in the crease in time for Saturday’s game.

New Jersey Devils (+ 210) at Boston Bruins (-240)

Boston is looking to bounce back after a big loss to Toronto, and they’re in a great position to do so, as the Devils have only won three of their last 18 road games. Linus Ullmark is expected to start in goal for the Bruins, though, and he’s no Jeremy Swayman. Ullmark has cost the team approximately 10 goals above expected so far this season, which means he’s been well below average. The Bruins’ chances of winning Thursday’s game, while still very high, aren’t as good with Swayman riding the pine. The Devils aren’t a good team, but they’re not a bad team either, as they seem to hold their own in the shot department. However, New Jersey is soft in comparison to Boston, and the Bruins have defeated this team twice (5-2 and 5-3) already this season. The Devils have been riding goaltender Nico Daws hard, too, and after starting strong, he looks to be wearing down. Daws has allowed almost six goals above expected over his last six starts according to Evolving Hockey. The game line has already started to tick toward the road team, but I haven’t taken a position on this game yet. I’m curious to see where the line goes, as I do believe the Bruins should be a bigger favorite than the market does.

Notes: Devils’ forward Pavel Zacha did not participate in practice Wednesday and is questionable for Thursday’s game.

Chicago Blackhawks (+ 280) at Florida Panthers (-340)

The Panthers returned to Florida after a long seven-game road trip and defeated the Montreal Canadiens by a score of 7-4, and there’s a very good chance that they will pick up two more points on Thursday when the Blackhawks come to town. This will be the first half of a back-to-back for Chicago, who will travel to Tampa Bay and play the Lightning on Friday. It’s unclear who will start in goal for the Blackhawks, but their options are Kevin Lankinen and Collin Delia, and I’m comfortable fading either one. The two teams have only met one other time this season, in Chicago, and the Panthers dominated that game. Florida owned 70 percent of the expected goals in that meeting and won the game 5-2. Florida is much better at home than they are on the road, and there’s a chance that Blackhawks’ forward Kirby Dach will miss another game due to an illness. There’s a chance that the Panthers could start Spencer Knight in goal over Sergei Bobrovsky, but that’s not going to get in my way. I’m betting that the Panthers will win cover the puck line at -145.

Pick:

Florida Panthers Puck Line -1.5, -145

Pittsburgh Penguins (-105) at Minnesota Wild (-115)

Cam Talbot will start in goal on Thursday in Minnesota when the Wild take on the Penguins. Pittsburgh is coming off another tough loss to the New York Rangers and now sit three points behind New York for the second spot in the Metropolitan Division. If Tristan Jarry is in goal for the Penguins, my model suggests that the road team should be priced around -120. The Wild are playing their fourth game in six days, and Talbot has cost the team approximately 14 goals above expected this season, and even though he’s been better lately, he hasn’t exactly been giving the team a lift according to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model.

Dallas Stars (-175) at Anaheim Ducks (+ 155)

Dallas defeated Anaheim earlier this week by a score of 3-2, it was the 10th loss in a row for the Ducks, and their 13th loss in their last 15 games. Anaheim is the second-worst team on offense and the sixth-worst team on defense since Jan. 1st and starting goaltender John Gibson has a .863 save percentage over his last 15 games. The Stars are average team at best, and they haven’t exactly been lighting the world on fire with their play as of late, so they better be careful not to overlook a desperate team like the Ducks. I don’t have much interest in this game from a betting perspective, but I do think laying -175 on the road team is a bad bet.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Florida Panthers Puck Line -1.5, -145

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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