NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 3/3

March 3, 2022 09:44 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Wednesday, March 2nd

Well, the Maple Leafs failed to show up on Wednesday, losing 5-1 to the Buffalo Sabres on home ice, but the Rangers managed to pick up a win, despite blowing a two-goal lead. It wasn’t a profitable night, but it wasn’t as bad as it could have been.

Record:

83-72, + 2.7 units, 1.7 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Wednesday, March 3rd

There are nine games scheduled for Wednesday but isn’t a whole lot of value on the board. One of the two bets I placed moved out of range, and the other bet is smaller.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Minnesota Wild (-200) at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 175)

Losers of six of their last seven games, the Wild are coming undone at the wrong time. Fortunately, back-to-back games against the Flyers and Sabres on Thursday and Friday give them a good chance to start a new winning streak. Jordan Greenway and Matt Dumba are still out due to injury, though, and Cam Talbot will almost certainly get one of the starts. Talbot hasn’t been good this season, and right now, Kaapo Kakhonen gives the Wild a better chance to win a given game. The Flyers are awful, but (according to my model) there’s no value in laying -200 or taking + 175.

Notes: Carter Hart will start in goal for the Flyers.

Carolina Hurricanes (-130) at Washington Capitals (+ 110)

Capitals’ forward Anthony Mantha has not yet been ruled out for Thursday’s home game against the Carolina Hurricanes, but the Capitals are down a couple of serviceable players in Carl Hagelin and Justin Schultz. Vitek Vanecek will be back in the crease for Washington, which should put the team in a better position to win, but it’s unclear who will start for the Hurricanes. Carolina will host Pittsburgh on Friday, and they might decide to start Antti Raanta on Thursday. I still wouldn’t be surprised to see Frederik Andersen started both games, though. The Hurricanes deserve to be the favorite, but the Capitals shouldn’t be priced any worse than + 110 if Mantha returns to the lineup and plays meaningful minutes.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 145) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-165)

Both Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh will play again on Friday, but the former will take on the Red Wings, while the latter is set to meet the Hurricanes. Andrei Vasilevskiy should start on Thursday, given that the Red Wings are a much easier opponent for Brian Elliott, but since the Penguins are in a tight race with the Hurricanes for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division, I’m going to assume that they start Casey DeSmith against the Lightning and save Tristan Jarry for Friday’s game in Carolina. According to my model, the Penguins should be priced around + 150 if Jarry is in goal, but if it’s DeSmith, there would be some value on the Lightning, but probably not enough to justify a bet.

Ottawa Senators (+ 330) at Florida Panthers (-400)

Josh Norris will be back in the lineup on Thursday, which should give the Senators a boost, but they’re still missing Drake Batherson, who is arguably their best player. Florida is healthy, though, and they’re priced short here. Sergei Bobrovsky will start in goal, and according to my model, the Panthers should be priced closer to -500. The Panthers have lost three games in a row even though they dominated each game, and they’ll be motivated to push the Senators around on Thursday. It’s a big price to pay, and it might seem square, but there’s enough value (by my estimation) to warrant a small bet on the Panthers to cover the puck line at -155.

Pick:

Florida Panthers Puck Line -1.5, -155 (half size)

Vancouver Canucks (+ 100) at New York Islanders (-120)

Vancouver allowed seven goals on Monday, and head coach Bruce Boudreau is likely going to want to see a commitment to defense on Thursday against the Islanders. It hasn’t been confirmed, but I don’t see a scenario where Thatcher Demko doesn’t start in goal for Vancouver. The Islanders have lost seven of their last 10 games and they’ve just returned from a five-game road trip on the other side of the country. It’s their fourth game in six days, and even though they’re on home ice, it’s not a good spot. According to my model, the Islanders should be priced around -105.

Edmonton Oilers (-145) at Chicago Blackhawks (+ 125)

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi are still out due to injury. Both players are listed as week-to-week, and that impacts how I handicap this game. The Blackhawks are still without Jonathan Toews, but Calvin de Haan might return to the lineup on Thursday. That hardly moved the needle, but it’s worth mentioning, nonetheless. This is the final game of a five-game road trip for the Oilers, and their fourth game in six days. The Oilers opened at -150 but have since been bet down to -140 and -145. According to my model, Edmonton should be priced should -135.

Colorado Avalanche (-380) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 320)

Karel Vejmelka will start in goal for the Coyotes on Thursday. More details to come.

Boston Bruins (-110) at Vegas Golden Knights (-110)

Earlier this morning I placed bets on the Boston Bruins at even money (and better) all the way up to -105. Shops started to adjust their odds quickly, though, and now the Bruins are rightfully listed as the road favorite at some sportsbooks. It’s hard to get too excited about the Bruins’ recent success, as their schedule has been light, but they’ve handled themselves well. Jeremy Swayman is also a big factor here. He has a .929 save percentage on the season, but he’s been even better than that as of late. Vegas is missing key players (Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone) and they’ve been struggling against the stronger teams in the league for quite some time now. According to my model, -112 is a fair price for the Bruins, assuming Swayman is between the pipes.

Montreal Canadiens (+ 370) at Calgary Flames (-400)

More details to come.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Florida Panthers Puck Line -1.5, -155 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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