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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 3/24

March 24, 2022 09:40 AM
USATSI_17926731

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Wednesday, March 23rd

There were no recommended bets on Wednesday.

Record:

96-80, + 7.07 units, 3.9 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, March 24th

There are 10 games scheduled for Wednesday, but it’s a lame slate if you ask me. I do have one (small) early bet, but this (post trade deadline) is my least favorite part of the season because a lot of the remaining games are going be nothing more than glorified exhibition contests.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Tampa Bay Lightning (-110) at Boston Bruins (-110)

There isn’t much separating the Lightning and Bruins in the standings, and if the latter catches the Maple Leafs, the two teams could meet in the first round of the playoffs. There’s a lot at stake here, for both teams. The Lightning have lost five of their last seven games and they’ve lost a lot of ground in the standings as a result. A win over Boston would be big for Tampa Bay, but it’s not going to be easy, as this is the best version of the Bruins that the Lightning have faced in quite some time. Patrice Bergeron is back after missing three games, and newly acquired defenceman Hampus Lindholm is set to make his debut alongside Charlie McAvoy. Boston is a better team than the Lightning in many ways, especially as of late. They hold an edge in categories like shot attempt percentage and expected goals, but even if they outplay the defending champs, it’s going to be tough to outscore them. The Lightning score goals at a higher rate than the Bruins do, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is still the best goaltender in the world. According to my model, the Bruins should be priced around -115.

Notes: Jeremy Swayman will start in goal for the Bruins. Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to be between the pipes for the Lightning.

Update: Patrice Bergeron will not play on Thursday, and even though he moves the needle a lot, it doesn't translate to a big edge on the Lightning, at least against the consensus line.

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