NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 3/24

March 24, 2022 09:40 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Wednesday, March 23rd

There were no recommended bets on Wednesday.

Record:

96-80, + 7.07 units, 3.9 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, March 24th

There are 10 games scheduled for Wednesday, but it’s a lame slate if you ask me. I do have one (small) early bet, but this (post trade deadline) is my least favorite part of the season because a lot of the remaining games are going be nothing more than glorified exhibition contests.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Tampa Bay Lightning (-110) at Boston Bruins (-110)

There isn’t much separating the Lightning and Bruins in the standings, and if the latter catches the Maple Leafs, the two teams could meet in the first round of the playoffs. There’s a lot at stake here, for both teams. The Lightning have lost five of their last seven games and they’ve lost a lot of ground in the standings as a result. A win over Boston would be big for Tampa Bay, but it’s not going to be easy, as this is the best version of the Bruins that the Lightning have faced in quite some time. Patrice Bergeron is back after missing three games, and newly acquired defenceman Hampus Lindholm is set to make his debut alongside Charlie McAvoy. Boston is a better team than the Lightning in many ways, especially as of late. They hold an edge in categories like shot attempt percentage and expected goals, but even if they outplay the defending champs, it’s going to be tough to outscore them. The Lightning score goals at a higher rate than the Bruins do, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is still the best goaltender in the world. According to my model, the Bruins should be priced around -115.

Notes: Jeremy Swayman will start in goal for the Bruins. Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to be between the pipes for the Lightning.

Update: Patrice Bergeron will not play on Thursday, and even though he moves the needle a lot, it doesn't translate to a big edge on the Lightning, at least against the consensus line.

Florida Panthers (-270) at Montreal Canadiens (+ 230)

The Florida Panthers generates more shots and score more goals on a per 60-minute basis than any other team in the league, so it’s kind of unfair that they were able to add a skilled playmaker like Claude Giroux. Not having Aaron Ekblad in the lineup stings, but I don’t think the Panthers will miss a beat down the stretch, and they shouldn’t have much trouble dismantling the Canadiens on Thursday in Montreal. However, there is a chance that Spencer Knight could start in place of Sergei Bobrovsky, and that’s a concern. Knight has been solid in the back half of the season, but he’s the road team will have a better chance of winning the game if Bobrovsky is between the pipes. Montreal had a nice run after Martin St. Louis took over as head coach, but they’ve lost five of seven games against some weak competition and there’s a chance that they could be without Nick Suzuki and Jonathan Drouin on Thursday, but we’ll have to wait until the morning skate to learn more about their status. Brendan Gallagher is considered doubtful as well. He was already sidelined with an injury before coming down with an illness, and he was not ready to resume practicing when he returned to the team on Wednesday.

Update: Nick Suzuki and Jonathan Drouin did not attend the morning skate. Head coach Martin St. Louis will update the media on their status following practice, but I’m going to take a small position on the Panthers to cover the puck line at -110. I think Suzuki will play based on information that was shared with me, but I’m willing to take a small risk here.

Pick:

Florida Panthers Puck Line -1.5, -110 (half size)

Dallas Stars (+ 170) at Carolina Hurricanes (-190)

Carolina picked up a big win over the Lightning on Wednesday in a game in which they dominated with a 61 percent expected goal share and 59 percent share of the shots. The Hurricanes have been bad offensively for a while now, but it’s not due to a lack of effort. The team is still outplaying the opposition on a game-to-game basis, and in my opinion, I think their struggles have more to do with bad luck and a condensed schedule. Having Tony DeAngelo back on the blue line should help the team offensively, too. Dallas is playing their fourth game in six days, and they’re still without defenceman Miro Heiskanen, who is out due to mono. Assuming the starting goaltenders are Frederik Andersen and Jake Oettinger, my model prices the Hurricanes at around -200.

Update: It looks like Scott Wedgewood could start his first game for the Dallas Stars.

Nashville Predators (-115) at Vegas Golden Knights (-105)

Nashville is probably going to be a popular pick on Thursday because they’re a short favorite that matched up against one of the saddest stories in the NHL, but my model estimates that -110 is a fair price. In other words, laying the favorite in this matchup might be appealing on the surface, but after digging a little deeper, I think it’s best to pass on the Predators. They’ve won seven of their last 10 games and covered the puck line in six of those wins, but my model is down on them because they’ve been awful for the better part of three months. Sure, Nashville has played well as of late, but between Jan. 1st and March 2nd, the Predators only registered generated more expected goals than their opponents on five occasions. Nashville has been outshot in 22 of 32 games since the turn of the calendar. Vegas is obviously hurting, as Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, Reilly Smith and Robin Lehner all remain out, but that’s not a surprise. Nashville will have a big edge in goal with Juuse Saros in the crease, but the Golden Knights have been better on home ice, and motivation probably isn’t going to be an issue after they were shutout in their last two games while on the road.

Update: Max Pacioretty could be back in the lineup on Thursday after taking part in practice, but we probably won't know for sure until warm ups.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Florida Panthers Puck Line -1.5, -110 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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