NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 3/17

March 17, 2022 12:14 PM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Tuesday, March 15th

Patrice Bergeron was a late scratch due to an arm infection, and the Bruins lost the game 4-2 after failing to complete to comeback (down 0-2). Boston didn’t lose because Bergeron was absent, but I wouldn’t have made the bet at even money earlier in the day had I known he would be out. Small bet, small loss.

Record:

93-78, + 6.27 units, 3.6 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, March 17th

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Carolina Hurricanes (-115) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-105)

Auston Matthews is serving the second game of his two-game suspension, so he won’t be in the lineup when the Maple Leafs host the Hurricanes on Thursday. Rookie goaltender Erik Kallgren will make his second career start after earning a shutout against the Dallas Stars on Tuesday. The road team is coming in rested, having had three days off, and Frederik Andersen is fresh to start in goal against his former club. Toronto has an edge over the Hurricanes on offense, or at least they should in theory, but Carolina’s play on the other side of the puck will probably make up for that. Kallgren is an unproven goaltender with very little experience and the Hurricanes should be priced around -115, according to my model.

Notes: Tony DeAngelo will be a game-time decision.

Nashville Predators (-165) at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 145)

After struggling for through most of January and February, the Predators have started to turn things around with five wins in their last six games, but the Predators have been gifted with some favourable matchups and this will be their fourth game in six days. The Flyers are a bad hockey team, but Carter Hart has been playing well. Maybe my model will come around on the Predators if they continue to play well, but they rank 25th in expected goals since the All-Star break, according to Natural Stat Trick, and a fair price is around -170.

Notes: Juuse Saros and Carter Hart will be the starting goaltenders.

Florida Panthers (-190) at Vegas Golden Knights (+ 170)

Vegas is back after a five-game road trip in which they lost every game in regulation. The Golden Knights have scored fewer goals per 60 minutes than all but one team since Feb. 7th and they’ve lost 11 of 16 games during this stretch. It’s unclear who will start in goal for Vegas, but it’s going to be Laurent Brossoit or Logan Thompson because Robin Lehner has been placed on injured reserve. Forward Reilly Smith is also on injured reserve. Max Pacioretty’s status for Thursday is doubtful, as he was no healthy enough to play after suffering an injury on the road trip, and if he doesn’t play, there might be some incentive to lay the favorite when the teams come out for warmup, and I get to see what the lineups are going to look like. There’s no guarantee that Sergei Bobrovsky will start in goal for the Panthers, but it does seem likely that he will. If Spencer Knight gets the nod, I’ll be glad I didn’t chase the number. Florida has the best offense in the league, and they should be able to outscore the Golden Knights with relative ease, especially if Pacioretty is out.

Pittsburgh Penguins (-115) at St. Louis Blues (-105)

St. Louis has lost five of their last seven games, but forward Pavel Buchnevich is expected to return to the lineup on Thursday. Robert Thomas and Tyler Bozak are out, though. The Penguins are in the middle of a three-game road trip which started in Nashville. Casey DeSmith started that game and they lost 4-1. Tristan Jarry is expected to start Thursday in St. Louis. The Blues have been better than the Penguins on offense, especially over the last month, but Pittsburgh has posted better defensive numbers and the injuries move the needle enough to incentive me to lay the favorite. The Penguins have been the superior team all season long, and according to my model, the Penguins should be priced closer to -125. Bet the Penguins on the moneyline at -115 or better.

Notes: Ville Husso will start for the Blues.

Pick:

Pittsburgh Penguins -115

San Jose Sharks (+ 135) at Los Angeles Kings (-155)

The Kings’ have had bad luck in the injury department lately, and as players like Viktor Arvidsson, Dustin Brown and Drew Doughty are all sidelined. Arvidsson and Brown are listed as week-to-week, while Doughty is regarded as day-to-day. This will be the fourth game in six days for Los Angeles, who have lost two games to the Sharks last week. The Kings have lost three of their last four games, and although they are the superior team when healthy, but even if Doughty is back in the lineup, there’s no way I can justify laying the favorite at -155.

Notes: James Reimer and Cal Petersen are expected to be the starting goaltenders.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Pittsburgh Penguins -115

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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