NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 3/10

March 10, 2022 12:17 PM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Wednesday, March 9th

There were no recommended bets on Wednesday.


87-75, + 2.97 units, 1.8 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, March 10th

There are 13 games scheduled for Thursday, making it the busiest day in more than a month.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Chicago Blackhawks (+ 230) at Boston Bruins (-270)

Jeremy Swayman will start in goal for the Bruins on Thursday, while the Blackhawks will go with Kevin Lankinen in what will be their fourth game in six days. The Bruins are coming off a crushing overtime loss to the Kings, but the team has been at the top of their game, winning seven of the last nine, and Swayman is playing like one of the best goaltenders in the league. According to my model, the Bruins should be priced closer to -350, and Boston is a good bet to cover the puck line at -115.


Boston Bruins Puck Line -1.5, -115

Vegas Golden Knights (-210) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 180)

Jack Eichel makes his return to Buffalo on Thursday, and I’m sure he’ll receive a warm welcome since Sabres’ fans are not petty at all. The Golden Knights will probably leave Buffalo with two points, but from a betting perspective, I can’t justify laying the favorite. The Golden Knights haven’t been playing well, scoring two or fewer goals in seven of their last 11 games, and, according to my model, the road team shouldn’t be priced any higher than -190, depending on what the lineups look like.

Updates: Robin Lehner was sent back to Las Vegas to deal with an injury which means Laurent Brossoit will get the start on Thursday in Buffalo. A fair price for the game is around -165 in favor of the road team. 

Arizona Coyotes (+ 300) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-360)

The Coyotes have scored at least eight goals in their last two games, so they are feeling good as they get set to take on the Maple Leafs in Toronto on Thursday. Arizona has won five of their last seven games. The Maple Leafs have not been receiving adequate goaltending from Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek for a while now, and the team hasn’t been living up to expectations. Well, unless you expected the Maple Leafs to underperform.

Notes: Jack Campbell will miss a minimum of two weeks due to a rib injury which means Petr Mrazek will start on Thursday.

Colorado Avalanche (-110) at Carolina Hurricanes (-110)

Frederik Andersen participated in practice on Wednesday, and I thought that was a good indication that he would start on Thursday, but that doesn’t look to be the case. He missed the last game due to an undisclosed injury, and this morning, the team recalled goaltender Alex Lyon from the American Hockey League. Antti Raanta will likely start in goal for the Hurricanes. The Avalanche are the superior team, but they’re playing their third game in four days, and they haven’t been playing well lately. There isn’t much separating the two teams statistically, as both rank in the top-five in categories like shot attempt percentage and goal share. Unfortunately, the game line has moved to a pick em’ and that’s past my threshold. I bet the Hurricanes early this morning at around -105 this morning, but I would not recommend that bet now.

Seattle Kraken (+ 110) at Ottawa Senators (-130)

With just one win in their last 11 games, oddsmakers were justified in listing the Kraken as the underdog heading into Thursday’s game against the Senators in Ottawa. However, my model prices the home team at around -115.

Philadelphia Flyers (+ 310) at Florida Panthers (-370)

Florida’s three-game losing streak at the end of February was nothing more than an aberration. The Panthers have won four in a row and are looking more dominant than ever. They’ve only lost six games at home all season and, according to my model, they should be priced closer to -500 assuming Sergei Bobrovsky is in goal. Bobrovsky was in the starter’s crease at practice, and it looks like he’ll get the start against the Flyers. Once again, I’m betting the Panthers to cover the puck line.


Florida Panthers Puck Line -1.5, -145

Minnesota Wild (-170) at Detroit Red Wings (+ 150)

It’s unclear who the starting goaltenders will be on Thursday, which makes it hard to finalize a projection, but the Wild shouldn’t be priced any lower than -155. Minnesota picked up a win over the Rangers, but that’s nothing to write home about, given that Igor Shesterkin wasn’t in goal. The Wild have lost nine of their last 14 games, while the Red Wings have been losers in six of their last eight games. Since the All-Star break, the Red Wings have posted the worst on-ice save percentage (.848) in the NHL. The Wild aren’t far behind, ranking 29th since Feb. 7th. This one could get ugly.

Winnipeg Jets (-115) at New Jersey Devils (-105)

Nico Hischier is questionable to play on Thursday when the Devils host the Winnipeg Jets, who are playing the first game of a back-to-back set. The Jets will play the Islanders on Friday, and it looks like backup Eric Comrie could get the start on Thursday in New Jersey.

Updates: Comrie will indeed get the start on Thursday, and it sounds like he'll be facing off against Nico Daws. The Devils are now listed as a -130 favorite at most sportsbooks and I don't believe there's value in taking the dog at + 110.

Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 130) at New York Islanders (-150)

Both New York and Columbus will play again on Friday, and the starting goaltenders are unknown. Joonas Korpisalo, who hasn’t played since Jan. 31st, recently returned to the team and will probably start one of the team’s next two games. It’s an interesting matchup as each team has what the other lacks. Columbus ranks ninth on offense while the Islanders rank 27th. However, New York grades out as the ninth-best team on defense, while the Blue Jackets rank 30th. Ilya Sorokin is expected to start for the Islanders.

Updates: Joonas Korpisalo will start on Thursday.

New York Rangers (+ 100) at St. Louis Blues (-120)

Igor Shesterkin should be back in the Rangers’ crease on Thursday when they take on the Blues in St. Louis. Pavel Buchnevich did not get the outcome that he and the Blues were looking for when they visited the Rangers recently, and it looks like he might miss the rematch due to a concussion. It’s been a tough stretch for the Blues, who have lost four in a row, and it’s not going to get easier in the short term, as they’re in the process of playing six games in nine days. It’s unclear who will start in goal for St. Louis, but my model estimates that the home team should be priced around -115.

Anaheim Ducks (+ 175) at Nashville Predators (-200)

Ryan Getzlaf is listed day-to-day with a lower body injury, so he’s questionable heading into Thursday’s game, but the Ducks might get Josh Manson back in the lineup. Anaheim is coming off an embarrassing 8-3 loss to the Blackhawks, while the Predators are coming an 8-0 win over the Sharks and a 2-1 win over the Stars. Nashville has struggled recently, though. The Predators will play three games in four days, with this being the first. I expect Juuse Saros to get the start on Thursday, but David Rittich will probably start one of three games.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-115) at Calgary Flames (-105)

More details to come.

San Jose Sharks (+ 180) at Los Angeles Kings (-210)

More details to come.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Florida Panthers Puck Line -1.5, -145

Late Adds:

Boston Bruins Puck Line -1.5, -115

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.



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