NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 2/17

February 17, 2022 07:42 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Wednesday, Feb. 16th

There were no recommended bets on Wednesday.

Record:

73-67, -0.5 units, -0.4 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, Feb. 17th

Thursday is the busiest day of what would have been the Olympic break, with 10 games scheduled. I’ve had to be patient this week, but I do have a couple of early bets today.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Washington Capitals (-175) at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 155)

Washington has six days off following this game, so if Vitek Vanacek isn’t ready to return (he’s been skating and working out) then I don’t think the Capitals have any reason not to start Ilya Samsonov after a strong performance in Nashville earlier this week. Martin Jones will start for the Flyers, and I don’t believe that has been properly priced in yet. The Capitals have been inconsistent, and they’ve struggled at times as of late, but this is still a great hockey team that should be priced much higher against the lowly Flyers, who’s injury list continues to grow. The Flyers are the fifth-worst team on defense, according to Evolving Hockey's expected goals model, and Martin Jones has allowed approximately six goals above expected on the season. Jones is a downgrade from Carter Hart and he hasn't played since Jan. 25th. Philadelphia doesn’t have much of a home-ice advantage, and according to my model, the Capitals should be priced closer to -205. Therefore, laying the road favorite at -185 or better. It does seem like there's some resistance to this bet, as it started to move to around -190 at some shops after I began betting it at -175, but it has since settled back at that number.

Pick:

Washington Capitals -175

Boston Bruins (-110) at New York Islanders (-110)

Patrice Bergeron is back with the Boston Bruins as they get set to take on the Islanders at UBS Arena. New York has lost seven of their last ten games, and oddsmakers continue to price them too favourably. It doesn’t always result in a bet against them, but this time it does, as Bergeron’s return should give the Bruins a big boost both offensively and defensively. Boston only managed to score three goals in three games without Bergeron, and they’re still missing Brad Marchand, but the Islanders 29th ranked offense has trouble putting pucks in the net, and although they have an edge in goal, the Bruins should control the shots and scoring chances in this game. The Islanders have gotten away from playing the type of hockey that made them successful in the past, and the Bruins should pick up a win about 55.5 percent of the time, according to my model. The Bruins are a value bet at -115 or better, as 55.5 percent converts to a fair line or around -125. The Bruins are an underdog at some sportsbooks, so shop around for -105 or better.

Pick:

Boston Bruins -110

Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 130) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-150) 

Pittsburgh has won four games in a row after losing four straight, but they still remain one of the hottest teams in the league since December 1st. The Maple Leafs have been quite hot themselves. Both of these offenses rank among the top-10. Tristan Jarry should get the start in goal for the Penguins, while Jack Campbell is confirmed to be the starting goaltender for the Maple Leafs. According to my model, the Maple Leafs should be priced around -135, so it doesn't look like I'm going to have any action on either side.

Detroit Red Wings (+ 170) at New York Rangers (-190) 

Rangers' head coach Gerard Gallant has stated that he will not be naming his starting goaltender, but with a spread out schedule, and Igor Shesterkin being well-rested heading in, there isn't much reason for them to start Alex Georgiev and possibly risk giving up two points to a lesser team like the Red Wings. However, there's a chance that Georgiev could get the start, which is why I passed on laying a better price with the Rangers earlier. The Red Wings have not announced a starter, yet, either. It could be Alex Nedeljkovic or Thomas Greiss, and if it's the latter, the Rangers should be priced around -205.

Ottawa Senators (+ 105) at Buffalo Sabres (-125)

No Thomas Chabot, Josh Norris or Drake Batherson. Matt Murray is also out with an injury. This is a depleted Senators roster. The Sabres will start Craig Anderson in goal, while Anton Forsberg will likely be between the pipes for the Senators. According to my model, Buffalo should be priced at -133, given that this will be Ottawa's fourth game in six days, and they've played a lot of hockey over the last week and a half.

St. Louis Blues (-270) at Montreal Canadiens (+ 230)

Montreal has lost 10 games in a row, and they have only picked up four wins dating back to the middle of November. The team has not received any sort of bump from their new coach, Martin St. Louis, but they are healthier now than they have been over the past few months, and that should result in the team playing better hockey down the stretch. The Canadiens are still one of the worst team in the league, though, and that's not going to change. The Blues are loaded with talent, but structurally, their game hasn't been on point, and even if Ville Husso gets the start in goal, the Blues shouldn't be priced any higher than -260 here, according to my model.

Seattle Kraken (+ 120) at Winnipeg Jets (-140) 

Just when the Winnipeg Jets playoff hopes looked to be dead, thing have started to look up after the team secured nine of 12 possible points against Central Division teams over their last six games. The Jets really must be kicking themselves for losing to Philadelphia and Chicago, though. They doubled up on the Wild on Wednesday, winning the game 6-3, and although they will likely get the win against the Kraken on Thursday in Winnipeg, the Jets are playing their fifth game in seven days, on top of it being their second game in as many nights. Backup goaltender Eric Comrie hasn't played since Jan. 25th, and with the Jets playing six games in nine days against the Oilers on Saturday, there's good reason to rest Connor Hellbuyck. If Comrie is in goal, an appropriate price for this game is around -140 in favor of the Jets, who are still without forward Nikolaj Ehlers.

Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 110) at Chicago Blackhawks (-130) 

Sportsbooks opened this game closer to -170, thinking Marc-Andre Fleury would get the start, but with Kevin Lankinen still out due to injury, and Fleury having played so many games in such a short period of time, Chicago has decided to go with goaltender Arvid Soderblom against the Blue Jackets on Thursday. The Blackhawks play the Dallas Stars on Friday, so Marc-Andre Fleury will be rested for that game. Their opponents might also choose to start their backup goaltender, as Joonas Korpisalo hasn't started since Jan. 25th. The game line now sits around -130 at most shops, and that seems fair if Elvis Merzlikins is in goal, if it's Joonas Korpisalo, their might be some value in laying the favorite, but there's always a lot of guess work that comes along with trying to price in a 22-year-old goaltender with only two NHL games under his belt.

Anaheim Ducks (+ 190) at Edmonton Oilers (-210) 

The Ducks fell 6-2 to the Flames in Calgary on Wednesday, but John Gibson was pulled early after allowing four goals on 20 shots. That means he's warmed up for the Oilers on Thursday, and I believe the Ducks pulled him as part of a plan to start him again. Yesterday's game was a good measuring stick, from a betting perspective. The Flames are a much better team than the Oilers, and although Edmonton has a slight rest advantage, if Gibson is in goal for the Ducks, the Oilers should only be priced around -185, so there won't be any value in laying the favorite. Edmonton has looked great over their last few games under new head coach Jay Woodcroft, and the Ducks have been trending downward, but Anaheim still has a lot to play for and I don't expect them to roll over for the Oilers. Anaheim is on the second half of a back-to-back, but the Oilers have played three games in four days and John Gibson was well-rested heading into last night's game against the Flames, and played only 28 minutes in the loss.

Vancouver Canucks (-110) at San Jose Sharks (-110) 

Quinn Hughes is expected to join the Canucks ahead of Thursday's game in San Jose after clearing COVID protocol. This is a big boos for the Canucks, and based on my estimation, it's the difference between being a favorite or an underdog. The Canucks have dropped off as of late, but so have the Sharks, and Erik Karlsson is still not back in the San Jose lineup. According to my model, Vancouver should be priced around -110.

Bet Summary:

 

Early Bets:

Washington Capitals -175

Boston Bruins -110

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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