NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 2/10

February 10, 2022 11:01 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Wednesday, Feb. 9th

There were no recommended plays on Wednesday.

Record:

71-66, -2.05 units, -1.5 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, Feb. 10th

There are seven games scheduled for Wednesday, and already, I can tell it’s going to be a frustrating day. I can’t just pull bets out of you know where, and lately; my model has been lining up with the market so much so that there just haven’t been any value bets to make, at least not at odds that are widely available.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Carolina Hurricanes (-145) at Boston Bruins (+ 125)

Boston won 10 of their first 12 games in 2022, but have since dropped four of their last six, and everything seems to be going south. Brad Marchand was suspended for six games on Wednesday, and long-time Bruins’ goaltender Tuukka Rask announced his retirement from the game of hockey. Oh, and Patrice Bergeron has been ruled out of Thursday’s game with an apparent head injury. Carolina embarrassed the Bruins a few weeks ago, defeating them 7-1 on their home ice, and although the Hurricanes are playing their third game in four days, my model expects the Hurricanes to win the game approximately 55 percent of the time. Some shops opened with the game priced as a pick em’ but it didn’t stay that way, as Circa, and other market makers, moved to -135 before most sportsbooks even hung a number. Now, the line sits at -145 in favor of the road team, and value is beginning to show on the Bruins at some shops. However, it’s minimal, and it probably won’t be enough to be able to justify taking the home dog.

Notes: Linus Ullmark and Frederik Andersen are expected to be the starting goaltenders.

Washington Capitals (-220) at Montreal Canadiens (+ 200)

Montreal made a coaching change on Wednesday, firing Dominique Ducharme and hiring Martin St. Louis as the interim head coach. This, coming after a 22-game stretch in which the Canadiens only picked up two wins. More changes are likely coming in Montreal, but first, they’ve got a date with the Capitals, who will be without their biggest superstar. Alex Ovechkin has cleared COVID protocol, but he is not yet far enough removed from his positive test result to satisfy the entry requirements to travel to Canada. Therefore, he will not be in the lineup when the Capitals take on the Canadiens on Thursday. According to my model, Washington should win the game about 67 percent of the time, which converts to a fair line of around -205. The Capitals haven’t been good, and they don’t have their leading scorer. They’ll still likely win the game, but there’s no value in laying -220 here.

Notes: Cayden Primeau and Ilya Samsonov will be the starting goaltenders.

Pittsburgh Penguins (-210) at Ottawa Senators (+ 180)

The Penguins were awful against the Bruins, owning just 32 percent of the expected goals that were generated in that game. Still, they won the game 4-2 and snaped a four-game losing streak. Now, they’ll look to make it two in a row against the Senators, who are playing their third game in four days. Ottawa has wins over New Jersey and Carolina even though they don’t have two of their best players, Drake Batherson and Josh Norris, in the lineup. Pittsburgh is coming to town without Evgeni Malkin, due to COVID, and there’s no telling who they will start in goal. It could be Tristan Jarry, but it could also be Casey DeSmith. The Penguins should be priced around -240, if it’s the former, and closer to the opening price (-210) if it’s the latter. They don’t play again until Sunday, and there are no back-to-back situations in the immediate future, so I expect DeSmith to start in at least one of the team’s next three games. Thursday at Ottawa, Sunday at New Jersey or Tuesday at home versus Philadelphia.

Notes: Matt Murray will start in goal for the Senators.

Columbus Blue Jackets (-110) at Buffalo Sabres (-110)

Elvis Merzlikins will start in goal for the Blue Jackets, but Patrik Laine will be a game-time decision, and that makes this game tougher to price. Laine is a big part of the Blue Jackets’ offense, and their offense is a big reason why betting on them can be somewhat appealing, under the right circumstances. Dustin Tokarski will start in goal for the Sabres, who have picked up just four wins in their last 16 games. They’ve lost seven of 11 since goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen went down with an injury, but he should be returning soon, and maybe the Sabres will show a little bit of life in the second half. The Blue Jacket should be priced around -115 if Laine is in the lineup.

New Jersey Devils (+ 210) at St. Louis Blues (-240)

Who will St. Louis start in goal? That’s the big question here. Will it be Ville Husso, who has arguably been the Blues’ most valuable player this season, or will it be Jordan Binnington, who is having the worst season of this career. Either way, the Blues should be a big favorite, as Dougie Hamilton and Jack Hughes will not be in the Devils’ lineup on Thursday. Early money has pushed the Blues’ odds from -270 down to -240. The Devils might feel good after a 7-1 win over the Canadiens, but they lost seven in a row prior to that and have only won three out of 14 games since Hamilton was injured. The Blues haven’t had much trouble putting teams like the Devils away this season, even though they don’t have the strongest underlying numbers, and the absence of Hughes and Hamilton makes it all that more likely that they will do just that on Thursday. It would have been nice if the Blues decided to start Ville Husso, since he’s been their best goaltender this season, as Binnington’s current form has been so poor that my model estimates the Blues should be priced around -250, and therefore, there’s not enough of an edge to justify laying the favorite in any capacity.

Tampa Bay Lightning (+ 100) at Colorado Avalanche (-120)

Nathan MacKinnon will not play on Thursday, as he is still recovering from a concussion and a facial facture. MacKinnon might be ready to play on Sunday. The Lightning, on the other hand, are back at full strength, as Nikita Kucherov will be in the lineup. Colorado has won 21 of 26 games since the beginning of December and up until their shootout-loss to the Coyotes prior to the All-Star break, they had won 10 in a row. Their inability to put teams away with consistency has been frustrating, though, and this should be a close matchup.

Tampa Bay and Colorado have similar underlying metrics, but the Avalanche have a higher goal share. MacKinnon’s absence should affect Colorado’s ability to generate goals, in theory, and therefore, they’re not as big of a favorite as they would be. According to my model, the Avalanche should be priced around -105. In other words, although this is a matchup that I would love to have action on, unless I can take the Lightning at a bigger underdog price, it doesn’t look like I’ll be taking a position on this game.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-135) at Calgary Flames (+ 115)

Calgary dominated the Golden Knights on Wednesday and won the game 6-0. Jacob Markstrom was in goal, and although Dan Vladar is an option, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Flames go back to Markstrom on Thursday against the Maple Leafs. Vladar is a solid backup, and Markstrom will be tired, but based on my estimation, the Flames would have a better chance of winning if Markstrom was in goal because his ceiling is still much higher than that of his backup. Still, this is going to be a tough game for the Flames, as the Maple Leafs are coming into town having won six in a row. Jack Campbell is expected to get the start in goal after Petr Mrazek picked up an overtime win in their last game. Both Calgary and Toronto rank among the top teams in the league in categories like shot attempt percentage and expected goal share, but the Maple Leafs are the more talented group, and they have a rest advantage. I won’t be laying the favorite in this game, but there is a chance that I will take the dog depending on who the Flames start in goal and which direction the game line moves. Calgary will lose the game, but if Markstrom is in goal, they should be priced closer to + 115.

Notes: Toronto defender Jake Muzzin could return to the lineup so I have pencilled him in just to be safe.

Bet Summary:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended play prop bets currently.

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