NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 1/27

January 27, 2022 08:58 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Wednesday, Jan. 26th

Wednesday’s loss on the Bruins moneyline was maybe the most frustrating loss of the season, considering how big of an underdog they were. Boston led 3-1 and controlled most of the shots and scoring chances at the end of the second period, but once again, the Avalanche found a way to win, in overtime, of course.

Record:

70-60, + 3.75 units, 3.0 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Thursday, Jan. 27th

There are 10 games scheduled for Thursday. I made two early bets, and it looks like that will be it as far as picks go.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Carolina Hurricanes (-230) at Ottawa Senators (+ 195)

Drake Batherson, who was set to represent the Senators at the All-Star Game, will be out approximately two months after being on the receiving end of dirty hit from Sabres' goaltender Aaron Dell. It's a huge loss for the Senators, who are already missing Connor Brown, another top-six forward. Thursday's game will be the Senators' fourth in six days. The Hurricanes have had just one day off to travel to Ottawa, but they are healthy. It'll be a quick turn around, too, as they're scheduled to host the New Jersey Devils on Saturday. Frederik Anderson and Matt Murray are expected to be the starting goaltenders, and my model prices this game closer to -280, but due to the current state of the Senators' lineup, and the Hurricanes current form, betting on the Hurricanes to cover the -1.5 puck line is also a value bet at + 100 or better. Shop around, though, because + 105 seems to be widely available. Carolina has scored at least four goals in eight of ten games since returning to action, and Frederik Andersen has been outstanding.

Pick:

Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5, + 105

New York Rangers (-200) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 175)

Columbus played the Flames on Wednesday and lost 6-0. Elvis Merzlikins was the starting goaltender. The Rangers have had two days off since their overtime win over the Kings, but they will host the Minnesota Wild on Friday which means there's a chance that Alexandar Georgiev will start on Thursday. If that's the case, there will be a lot of bettors reluctantly placing bets on the home underdog playing their second game in as many nights. Igor Shesterkin be between the pipes, though, and I'm guessing the market isn't going to budge until there's more information.

Update: Georgiev will start in goal for the Rangers and the price dropped 10 cents to + 165.

Los Angeles Kings (+ 120) at New York Islanders (-140)

The Kings were one of the hottest teams out of the break, winning six of eight games, but they've lost four of their last five. Two of those losses came against the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Colorado Avalanche, though, so let's cut them a bit of slack. Los Angeles is in a good spot here, having had two days off since their last game against the Rangers, and in my opinion, oddsmakers are showing the Islanders too much respect. Sure, New York has won seven of nine, but the Kings are the superior team. According to Evolving Hockey, the Kings are an above average team based on their expected goals model, and a top-10 team in shot attempt percentage. The Islanders, meanwhile, are a low-event team that grades out poorly through the lens of expected goals and other modern hockey statistics. Nothing has really changed for the Islanders as of late, either, while the Kings' underlying metrics have been very strong for a month now. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Kings have the best even-strength expected goal share in the NHL since January 28th. According to my model, this game should be priced like a coin flip, give or take a few cents. The Kings are a value bet down to around + 110, but I would recommend taking a smaller position on them at those odds.

Pick:

Los Angeles Kings + 120

Anaheim Ducks (-135) at Montreal Canadiens (+ 115)

Anaheim went to a shootout Wednesday night in Toronto, and now they'll try to continue their success against the Canadiens in Montreal. This is the third game of an Eastern Conference road trip. The Ducks won the first two games and still have stops in Ottawa and Detroit. Anthony Stolarz will make his first start since Jan. 14th. Cayden Primeau will start for the Canadiens. The Canadiens have had two days off, but they're still missing several key players, and they've only won two games dating back to the end of November. Brendan Gallagher and Paul Byron could be back in the lineup this weekend, but they aren't expected to play on Thursday and Jonathan Drouin, Christian Dvorak and Cole Caufield are on the injured list as well. According to my model, the Ducks should be priced around -140, so I'll be willing to lay the favorite if the price drops to -130.

New Jersey Devils (+ 290) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-350)

When I looked at my projections this morning, I initially thought I was going to lay the favorite at -300. However, I quickly realized that I had not taken Nikita Kucherov (COVID) out of the Lightning lineup, and made the necessary adjustments. The market didn't care, though, and moved the line from -315 to -350. John Gillies is expected to start for the Devils, while Andrei Vasilevskiy will likely be in goal for the Lightning. It's always difficult to estimate what kind of impact missing a player like Kucherov will have on the Lightning in the short term. The Lightning are well-rested as they have had four days off.

Vegas Golden Knights (+ 140) at Florida Panthers (-160)

There's been two-sided action on this game, as the Panthers were bet up over night from -145 to -165, then again earlier today to -180. At that point, the market shifted to the Golden Knights at + 160, and now sits at -160 in favor of the Panthers. Spencer Knight will start in goal for the Panthers. Vegas head coach Pete DeBoer said that the team's health is heading in the right direction, but he did not give an update on Max Pacioretty or Alec Martinez. According to my model, the Panthers should be priced around -165 if both Pacioretty and Martinez are still out. This is the third game in four nights for the Golden Knights.

Seattle Kraken (+ 255) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-310) 

Tristan Jarry and Philipp Grubauer will be the starting goaltenders. The game line hasn't really budged since opening at -315, indicating that the market believes sportsbooks have priced the game correctly, and I'd have to agree, as my model prices the game around -305 in favor of the home team.

Calgary Flames (+ 120) at St. Louis Blues (-140)

The Blues were playing their second game in as many nights when they took on the Flames in Calgary on Monday. The Flames won that game 7-1. This time around, however, the Flames are the team that's playing the second game of a back-to-back, the venue has changed and the goaltending matchup gives the Blues an edge. Ville Husso has been outstanding since the Blues returned to action, posting a .965 save percentage over his last 300 minutes of time on ice. Husso will get the start against Flames' backup Daniel Vladar. The Flames are the better team, as they grade out as a top-five team in shot attempt percentage and expected goals. The Blues rank 21st and 23rd in those categories. However, according to my model, under these circumstances, the Blues should be priced around -120.

Vancouver Canucks (+ 150) at Winnipeg Jets (-170)

Only Bo Horvat and Tanner Pearson remain on the Canucks' COVID list, as J.T. Miller and Connor Garland are back in the lineup. Spencer Martin will start in goal, though, as Thatcher Demko and Jaroslav Halak are not ready to return yet. Connor Hellebuyck will start between the pipes for the Jets, who will be playing their fourth game in six days. Nikolaj Ehlers will not be in the Jets' lineup. According to my model, the Jets are priced right where they should be at -170, as my model prices the home team around -175.

Nashville Predators (-110) at Edmonton Oilers (-115)

I was a little surprised to see that my model didn't peg the Predators as a value bet, as I think this is a good matchup for them. I'm going to trust my process, though, as my model estimates that the Predators should be priced around -105, assuming Juuse Saros is in goal. Mikko Koskinen will start for the Oilers.

Notes: Zach Hyman will start on the third line tonight after missing the last three games due to COVID.

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Los Angeles Kings + 120

Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5, + 105

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended play prop bets currently.

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